SLIDE 1
Aligning an oil and gas company’s reserves and future emissions with a 2ºC science-based target
A preliminary study of an oil and gas major
Presentation to the International Conference on Fossil Fuel Supply and Climate Policy 26-27 September 2016, Queen’s College, Oxford
Pedro Faria and Paul Griffin, CDP Richard Heede, Climate Accountability Institute
SLIDE 2 Remaining carbon budget & proved reserves
Heede (2014) Tracing anthropogenic CO2 and methane emissions to fossil fuel and cement producers 1854-2010, Clima(c Change, 122: 229-241. Heede & Oreskes (2016) PotenEal emissions of CO2 and methane from proved reserves of fossil fuels: An alternaEve analysis, Global Env. Change, 36:12-20.
SLIDE 3
Top 20 companies: historic & potential emissions
Company X: 1P reserves of 5.1 Mboe of combined liquids & gas ~ 0.3 GtCO2e Scope 1 plus ~ 1.7 GtCO2e Scope 3 emissions.
SLIDE 4
Science Based Targets (SBT) → Sectoral Decarbonization Approach (SDA)
SLIDE 5
SBT Absolute Emissions (contraction) : Theory
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Company A - contraction World (IEA ETP 2DS)
Index (2012 =1)
SLIDE 6 SBT Scope 1+3 Emissions (contraction) : Example
2015 1P Reserve estimate (5 Gboe = 2 GtCO2e): Company Filings; 2015 P90+P50 resource estimate (14 Gboe = 5.6 GtCO2e), 2015 3P Reserve estimate (23 Gboe = 9.2 GtCO2e): by Rystad Energy AS courtesy of Oil Change International.
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 IEA 4DS IEA 2DS Historic al
1P P90+P 50 3P 1P P90+P 50
MtCO2 e
SLIDE 7
SBT Emissions Intensity (convergence) : Theory
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Company A - convergence Company B - convergence World (IEA ETP 2DS) tCO2e/ boe
Base year
SLIDE 8
SBT Scope 1+3 Intensity (convergence) : Example
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 tCO2e/ boe BAU IEA 2DS Base year 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 tCO2e/ boe BAU IEA 2DS Convergence Path Base year 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Natural gas switching (50%) Operational O&G efficiency (100%) Biomass (10%) Wind (20%) tCO2e/ boe Action Remaini ng BAU Base year Convergence Path 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Natural gas switching (50%) Operational O&G efficiency (100%) Biomass (10%) Wind (20%) tCO2e/ boe Action Remaini ng BAU Base year Convergence Path
SLIDE 9
Linking contraction and convergence
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 mmbo e tCO2e/ boe Oi l Natural gas Intens ity 2015-2050 Cumulative emission : 8 GtCO2e IEA 2DS Budget : 10 GtCO2e
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 mmbo e tCO2e/ boe Oi l Natural gas Intens ity 2015-2050 Cumulative emission : 8 GtCO2e IEA 2DS Budget : 8 GtCO2e
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Renewa bles mmbo e tCO2e/ boe Oi l Natural gas Intens ity 2015-2050 Cumulative emission : 8 GtCO2e IEA 2DS Budget : 8 GtCO2e
SLIDE 10 Conclusions
- Companies can begin to plan transition around reserve lock-in
- CCS provides a range of flexibility, but is not the solution
- Oil and Gas companies need to follow contraction AND
convergence SBT in order to continue growing
SLIDE 11 Next Steps
- Extend analysis to 2100, e.g. RCP2.6
- Modified scenarios, e.g. 1.5-1.7 ⁰C limit
- Further considerations on company-level allocation: the carbon
supply cost curve (CTI 2014)
- Apply a levelized cost assessment.
