SLIDE 1 Beacon Hill Seminars – 2016 “Earth’s Changing Climate: What is Causing It? What Will It Mean for You? Timothy C. Weiskel
Transition-Studies Cambridge Climate Research Associates Fall Semester 2016 3 November 2016
Session 5 – Climate Change, Food Strategies And our Global Water Circumstance
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BBC, Newshour, 13 September 2009
http://www.climate-talks.net/2008- ENVRE130/Audio/20090913-BBC- Borlaug-Newshour-obit.mp3.
Norman Borlaug (1914 – 2009)
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Never before….and never again.
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Equation for Understanding the Dynamic of Exponential Growth
You can use this formula to calculate any phenomena at time “B” with initial input of “A” at an earlier point which is known to grow at an fixed rate “y”
period “n.”
High-school algebra is sufficient here -- no need for rocket science.
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Equation for Understanding the Dynamic of Exponential Growth
You can use this formula to calculate any phenomena at time “B” with initial input of “A” at an earlier point which is known to grow at an fixed rate “y”
period “n.”
…this cannot go on indefinitely.
High-school algebra is sufficient here -- no need for rocket science.
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Equation for Understanding the Dynamic of Exponential Growth
…this cannot go on indefinitely.
You can use this formula to calculate any phenomena at time “B” with initial input of “A” at an earlier point which is known to grow at an fixed rate “y”
period “n.”
High-school algebra is sufficient here -- no need for rocket science.
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Population Growing at 1.8% 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1500 1520 1540 1560 1580 1600 1620 1640 1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 Population Growing at 1.8%
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Population Growing at 1.8% 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1500 1520 1540 1560 1580 1600 1620 1640 1660 1680 1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 Population Growing at 1.8%
This pattern becomes the profile of expectation in cultures that have emerged from a history of colonialism and habits of imperial expansion. People from these cultures come to the world with “r-selected” values and expectations NOT “k-selected” ones.
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Our evolving relationship to the land manifests our underlying colonial and imperial worldview.
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Our evolving relationship to the land manifests our underlying colonial and imperial worldview.
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Indeed, all of our sprawl culture with its economy based on Wal-Marts, and global resource extraction depends on carbon fuels.
Consider the rise in the importance of oil in the American food system….
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But How Much is Enough in an Ecosystem ..? (the nature and pace of changes immediately ahead -1)
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But How Much is Enough in an Ecosystem ….?
(the nature and pace of changes immediately ahead -2)
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But How Much is Enough in an Ecosystem….?
(the nature and pace of changes immediately ahead -3)
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No amount of genetic engineering will address the ethical problem of limit posed by the most recent scientific studies.
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Economists have systematically misunderstood the ecology of agriculture and misdirected public policy in the post-War world
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The “Food” Problem
Norman Borlaug addressed the
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The “Food” Problem
The Food/Population Problem
… but we have come to understand that this is only part of:
Norman Borlaug addressed the
SLIDE 26 The “Food” Problem
The Food/Population Problem Norman Borlaug addressed the
… but we have come to understand that this is only part of: … and that, in turn, is
The Food/Population/Environment Problem
(This Requires a Paradigm Shift)
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Norman Borlaug (1914 – 2009)
The Crucial Question Is: Will the students and followers of Norman Borlaug be able to make the paradigm shift to sustainable agriculture that is now required for
survival?
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We need to remember, climate physicists are NOT agricultural experts…. How will we respond to the coming climate-induced food crisis?
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We need to remember, climate physicists know very little about agroecology…
Petro-intensive agriculture cannot be sustainable…based on non-renewables. BUT will we move beyond it to regenerative agriculture in the time we have remaining?
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Can we devise and implement carbon-capturing, sustainable agriculture in response to the challenges of global climate change?
Can we learn to work with biodiversity in nature in a sustainable agriculture….?
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We must move beyond degenerative agriculture toward
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But the problems of food production, oil and climate change have other dimensions…
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But the problems of food production, oil and climate change have other dimensions… …climate change and fresh water is the really big crisis…
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Our Circumstance and Our Consciousness
"...Why do we have such a hard time seeing the bigger picture?" http://environmentaljusticetv.wordpress.com/2013/10/31/conne cted-official-trailer/
Let’s take a “big picture view” of WATER
SLIDE 47 We live on the
planet in the known universe... ….yet as a species we may be “running out”
There is something wrong on this water wealthy planet.
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We need to address the ethical, scientific, public health, and policy dimensions of this crisis… …to avoid massive human suffering.
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“That image of the earth has become, like the Cross and the Crescent, an icon of almost religious significance.” James Lovelock, 1996
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Water
- Two thirds of the world is covered
with water
- 97% of that water is salt water
- Of the remaining 3% that is fresh
water, roughly, 2/3 of that is locked up in the polar ice sheets.
- The world’s population is competing
in increasingly vicious rivalries for the use of the remaining 1% of water
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Competing Uses of Water
- Agriculturalists - water is irrigation
- Industrialists - water is input to industrial process
- Municipal authorities deal with “drinking water” and
“sewage.”
- Energy Companies - water as a source of power
- Environmentalists - water is basis of wetlands and
vital to ecosystemic health Emerging Conflicts: Small farm agriculture vs. corporate agriculture drinking water vs. agriculture Sanitation (humans vs. microbes)
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Water Issues Are Already in News
Shortages will be experienced in agriculture, just when expanded food production is required. Studies have appeared, warning of water scarcity around the globe (BBC News). Point to conflict. In the last few months, UN has pointed to water scarcity and pollution problems in: Africa; in Asia - especially India; the Middle East and in Brazil. (BBC Report on India’s 50 Million without water) Populations outrunning water supplies - ENN News 1 November 1999. And deserts are expanding.
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World Commissions Have Been Established
World Water Forum March 2000 Meetings in the The Hague, Netherlands Overview of Problem (Conference Video). CBC Report on the Hague World Water Forum
- meetings. (Summary reports emphasize
shortage). BUT “Solutions in short supply at World Water Forum” - ENN, 28 March 2000. ( Extended BBC report on the Hague Conference )
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Thank you….
SLIDE 63 Beacon Hill Seminars – 2016 “Earth’s Changing Climate: What is Causing It? What Will It Mean for You? Timothy C. Weiskel
Transition-Studies Cambridge Climate Research Associates Fall Semester 2016 3 November 2016
Session 5 – Climate Change, Food Strategies And our Global Water Circumstance
