Assessing Alexandria/Arlingtons Regional Labor Market Mark C. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Assessing Alexandria/Arlington’s Regional Labor Market Mark C. White, Ph.D. Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University March 6, 2017

Agenda • Key demographic trends • The labor force • Economic trends • The federal government and the federal workforce • Sources of workforce demand • Ongoing regional challenges • Conclusions and takeaways • Questions, and hopefully answers

Key demographic trends

After a period of flat/negative growth, A-A grew significantly after the recession 140.0 • 382,000 residents Northern Virginia 135.0 • 60 percent in Washington, DC MSA Arlington Alexandria-Arlington 130.0 Commonwealth of Virginia • 40 percent in 125.0 District of Columbia Alexandria Population (100=2000 Pop.) 120.0 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates Program

The region has experienced net domestic out-migration since 2011 10,000 2,710 4,883 4,292 4,827 4,167 3,871 5,000 Population Change 4,410 4,216 4,199 4,223 3,996 0 -1,815 -525 -4,068 -6,685 -5,000 Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase -10,000 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V2015

1 out of 4 residents are aged 25-34 30.0% United States Virginia Washington, DC Metro Area Alexandria-Arlington 25.0% 24.9% Percent of Total Population (2015) 20.0% 17.7% 15.0% 12.6% 10.0% 10.3% 9.8% 8.9% 5.0% 0.0% 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

The region has gotten slightly older in the past five years 30.0% 2010 2015 27.4% 25.0% 24.9% Percent of Total Population (2015) 20.0% 17.7% 15.0% 15.8% 12.8% 12.6% 10.0% 10.6% 10.3% 10.2% 9.8% 8.9% 8.7% 5.0% 0.0% 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

The region is less diverse than the DC metro area 80.0% United States Virginia Washington, DC Metro Area Alexandria-Arlington 70.0% 68.6% 60.0% *It is important to note that Hispanic or Latino Percent of Total Population (2015) is an ethnicity, and people identifying as such may fit into multiple racial categories. 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 13.5% 13.3% 10.0% 4.5% 9.0% 0.0% White Black Asian Two or more races Hispanic or Latino* Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

The labor force

Unemployment remains lower than the region, state & nation 12.0% United States Virginia Washington DC Metro Area 10.0% Northern Virginia Alexandria-Arlington 8.0% Percent Unemployment 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Reflecting demographic trends, LF participation remains very high 90.0% Labor Force Participation Female Labor Force Participation 80.0% 79.5% 74.9% 70.0% 71.8% Labor Force Participation Rate (Age 16+) 66.5% 66.0% 63.1% 60.0% 61.3% 58.1% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% United States Virginia Washington, DC Metro Alexandria-Arlington Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

Where A- A’s workers LIVE Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics, OnTheMap, 2014

Where A- A’s residents WORK Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics, OnTheMap, 2014

2 out of 3 A-A residents (age 25+) have at least a 4-year degree 40.0% United States Virginia Washington, DC Metro Area Alexandria-Arlington 36.4% 35.0% 31.5% 30.0% Percent of population age 25+ 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 11.3% 10.0% 9.4% 7.7% 5.0% 3.8% 0.0% Less than HS HS graduate (incl. Some college, no Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Grad. or prof. GED) degree degree Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

Earnings and education go hand in hand $83,469 $90,904 Graduate or professional degree $70,159 $75,025 Bachelor's degree $37,026 $45,910 Some college or associate's degree Alexandria $24,920 Arlington $26,689 High school graduate (includes Washington, DC Metro Area equivalency) Virginia United States $21,432 $32,475 Less than high school graduate $56,341 $71,206 Population 25 years and over with earnings $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 Median Earnings (2015) Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

Economic trends

Arlington (#26) & Alexandria (#30) are two of America’s wealthiest counties $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 Per Capita Personal Income (2015 Dollars) $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 Arlington $30,000 Alexandria-Arlington Alexandria $20,000 Washington, DC Metro Area Virginia $10,000 United States $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Adjusted for inflation using Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index

In spite of steady growth, the region has relatively fewer sole proprietors 25.0% 20.0% Percent of Total Employment 15.0% 10.0% USA Washington, DC MSA Virginia 5.0% Alexandria Alexandria-Arlington Arlington 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Prof. and business services account for almost 30% of total employment Professional & Business Services 29.7% Government 15.5% Education & Health Services 13.0% Trade, Transportation & Utilities 12.3% Leisure & Hospitality 10.9% Other Services 8.5% 2011 2016 Financial Activities 4.5% 2021 Information 2.6% Construction 2.1% Manufacturing 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Percent of Total Employment Source: Chmura Economics, Jobs EQ

The federal government and the federal workforce

Federal employment (as a % of total) has declined in Arlington over the past 15 years 30.0% Arlington Alexandria-Arlington Alexandria Washington, DC MSA 25.0% Virginia USA Percent of Total Employment 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Federal workers represent a larger share of total residents, than in many surrounding jurisdictions

Roughly 1 in 5 workers living in Alexandria and Arlington work for the Federal Government • Arlington: • 30,000 workers (21%) Civilian 46,453 • 25,700 18.9% households (25%) Civilian Federal workforce Employee • Alexandria 194,495 51,023 79% 20.8% • 21,000 workers (21%) • 17,900 Miltary households (26%) 4,570 1.9% Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS

Federal job opportunities likely attract many younger workers to the region 40.0% Federal Workforce General Workforce 35.0% 36% 34% 30.0% Percent of Total Workforce 25.0% 25% 24% 20.0% 21% 17% 15.0% 14% 10.0% 11% 8% 5.0% 4% 3% 3% 0.0% <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS

Federal workers living in Alexandria- Arlington tend to earn higher wages Median Household Income (2015) Median Annual Wage (2015) Households with a $142,000 $100,000 Federal Employees Federal Employee $108,100 $60,000 All Households All Employees $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS PUMS

Federal workers that live in A-A are more likely to use Metro 70.0% 63% 60.0% 58% Federal Workforce General Workforce 50.0% Percent of Total Workforce 40.0% 30.0% 26% 20.0% 15% 10.0% 12% 7% 6% 6% 8% 3% 0.0% Motor Vehicle Metro Bus Bike or Walk Other Primary mode of transportation Source: US Census Bureau, 2015 ACS PUMS

Sources of workforce demand

A-A has a polarized workforce with relatively few middle-skill jobs 60.0% Current Occupational Employment (2016) 52.6% 52.2% Projected Total Openings (2016-2021) 50.0% Percent of Occupational Employment (2016) 40.0% 35.1% 33.7% 30.0% 20.0% 9.7% 8.8% 10.0% 4.0% 3.9% 0.0% HS or Less Associates or some college Bachelors degree Graduate degree Entry-Level Educational Requirement Source:Chmura Economics, JobsEQ, 2016 Q2

Projected higher paying, growth industries and occupations • Industries • Occupations • Mgmt, Sci., & Tech • IT-related consulting services • Software developers, • Computer systems design & computer systems analysts related services and programmers, network • Arch, Eng, & related services and computers systems • Business, Prof., Labor, administrators Political, & Similar Orgs. • Analysts • Some gov’t projected to • Management, market research create opportunity through replacement • Managers hiring. • General & operations, Comp • Uncertainty remains & info systems