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Bridging training and research Understanding the relationship between leadership expertise and priorities during an Ebola outbreak

Bridging training and research: understanding the relationship between leadership expertise and priorities during an Ebola outbreak.

Dr L K Simpson1, J S Holt2, A Garvey3, J Faulkner4, K Mackie5, K Manning6 and C Gee7 CDS Defence & Security (CDS DS), Cheltenham, UK

1Principal Psychologist, CDS DS, Leanne.simpson@cdsds.uk 2Operational Security Advisor & Deployment Specialist, UK Covernment’s Stabilisation Unit 3Lead Digital Learning Designer, CDS DS 4Research Assisitant, CDS DS 5Digital Developer, CDS DS 6Digital Developer, CDS DS 7Head of Marketing, CDS DS Corrina.gee@cdsds.uk

Abstract — Effective management of a crisis often depends on the behaviour of the leader. This paper describes the development of an evidence-based training intervention for leaders due to deploy to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). From a training perspective the aim was to improve knowledge of the current challenges leaders are facing in the DRC and expose them to possible solutions. From a research perspective the aim was to understand how leadership expertise impacts an individual’s ability to balance priorities during a crisis. The paper also tested how behavioural analytics can be used to measure training impact and inform future training interventions.

1 Introduction

A leader is required to balance their focus across various areas that simultaneously demand their attention. The problem of managing complex choices and achieving balance as a leader should be considered seriously [1]. A leader’s inability to balance priorities effectively can negatively impact their ability to achieve goals, as well as the credibility of the organisation they work for, the environment the organisation works within and their ability to instill followership among staff. Crisis and leadership are a closely intertwined phenomenon [2]. Crises are defined as low-probability and high-consequence events that are often clouded by

• ambiguity. Effective management of a crisis often hinges
• n the behavior of the leader and demands an integration
• f skills, abilities and traits that allows a leader to plan,

respond and learn from the crisis all while under scrutiny [2]. Failure to respond and manage an outbreak effectively can lead to chaos and to a crisis with far- reaching consequences and uncontrollable outcomes. A recent example of this is the spread of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2013 which killed over 11,300 people and affected 10 countries in three continents [3]. Managing disease outbreaks in regions of the world that are ill prepared, with poor governance and maladministration, can be particularly challenging. Research suggests that an evolving crisis such as a disease outbreak typically has five phases that need to be managed effectively [4 – 6]: 1) signal detection, 2) preparation and prevention, 3) damage containment, 4) recovery, 5) learning. Effective leadership during a crisis must successfully navigate each of these five phases

• ften having to make decisions quickly, without all the

information or with inaccurate information. In a recent report the assistant director of emergencies at the World Health Organisation (WHO) warned that disease outbreaks such as Ebola could become the “new normal” [7]. Population movement, conflict and poor governance have been identified as factors that have compounded the outbreaks of high-impact epidemics such as Ebola, Cholera and Yellow Fever among other diseases [7]. The current outbreak of Ebola in the DRC has been reported as the most complex public health emergency in recent history [8]. Recent figures put the total number of reported cases at 3145 (85% of confirmed and probable cases are women and children), of which 2103 of those infected have died [9]. These figures suggest a current

• verall case fatality ratio of 67% [9].

The UK is one of the leading supporters of the international response. In July 2019 the UK Government announced funding of up to £50 million to aid the

• ngoing response in the DRC [8]. The Department for

International Development (DFID) are currently on the ground in the DRC supporting work with government agencies, UN agencies and international charities to provide information, vaccinations, treatment, training and safe burials.

2 Current research objective

In this research we are looking to create a training intervention for individuals due to deploy to the DRC in leadership roles (known as ‘future leaders’ from here on). The challenges that are currently faced by leaders in the DRC are constantly evolving and leaders are often faced with them for the first time in situ. The proposed intervention provides future leaders with an opportunity to gain knowledge of the current issues they may face and exposes them to possible solutions that leaders currently in the DRC have reported are available to them. It also provides future leaders with an opportunity to practice the decision-making process. We often make decisions based on our gut feelings, allowing us to make fast, automatic decisions. Quick decision making can be crucial in a crisis. However,

Bridging training and research Understanding the relationship between leadership expertise and priorities during an Ebola outbreak despite research having shown that a gut decision can be reliable [10], it also falls prey to misguidances, such as cognitive biases. This intervention looks to enable future leaders to experience how intuitive and analytic thinking should occur together and be weighed up against each

• ther particularly in difficult decision-making situations.

Considering this, it is hypothesised that: H1 – those who rate lowest in leadership expertise and those who rate themselves as highest in leadership expertise will be quickest to respond during the task. Those who identify as having moderate level of expertise will be the slowest to respond during the task. In addition to imparting knowledge and allowing future leaders to rehearse decision making, the intervention also allows us to understand how leadership expertise impacts an individual’s ability to balance

• priorities. As previous research suggests an inability to

balance priorities is an indicator of poor leadership [11]. We therefore hypothesise: H2 - that those who rate themselves higher in leadership expertise will generate more balanced scores across the priority categories being measured. In contrast, participants who rate themselves lower in leadership expertise are less likely to prioritise their own mental wellbeing with their primary focus being the native population. From a training perspective, the intervention allows us to impart knowledge about the current issue’s leaders, who are currently in the DRC, have been facing and the solutions that have been available to them. It also allows future leaders an opportunity to practice making decisions under pressure and reflect on their ability to effectively balance priorities. Finally, it allows trainers to identify issues at an individual level that could be resolved with further training.

3 Method

3.1 participants Data will be collected from a minimum of 200 participants from a variety of backgrounds including those who are employed to lead in crisis situations and those whose jobs are not leadership roles nor crisis related. 3.2 apparatus The game can be played on a tablet or laptop and will take no longer than 15 minutes to complete. 3.3 materials The game was developed in Articulate Storyline 360 with all analytics captured using xAPI and Learning Locker. This method delivered an accessible semi-realistic style to the game narrative, without losing any authenticity. The animations were created in Adobe After Effects and all characters were drawn and animated from scratch using Adobe Illustrator. Character ‘rigging’ and scripting was used to create the movement within these

• animations. Additional music and sound effects were

added in After Effects to create interest and atmosphere. Variables were used to record several actions including order of participant responses to each question and the time taken to respond. Some of the data captured in those variables is shown to the learner at the end of the app via a simple bar chart. Further data is captured that users do not see, including their stated leadership experience, which mission they selected first and how many missions they completed. All data is collected by packaging the Learning Content from Articulate 360 into an xAPI format. The xAPI format allows the data to be sent to a Learning Records Store (LRS), in this case Learning Locker hosted on a Virtual Server. Learning Locker provides the link between data capture and analysis. 3.4 design The game-based intervention is set in the DRC during the current Ebola outbreak. The game sees participants cast in the role of ‘Tactical Coordinator’. Eight scenarios were developed in conjunction with staff from the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO). Each scenario presents a current issue that leaders on the ground are facing in the DRC. After being presented with the scenario the participant clicks to ‘make a decision’. This then takes the participant to a page that presents four possible

• solutions. These solutions are based on direct feedback

from FCO leaders currently working in the DRC relating to how they have or could resolve the situation. Each solution directly operationalises one of four priorities being measured. While playing the game the participant is not aware that there are four underlying priorities, nor that they are being measured. The four priorities are: (1) External impact - How frequently the participant prioritises the native population’s needs. (2) Personal impact - How frequently the participant prioritises their own mental wellbeing and their own credibility as a leader. (3) Organisational impact – How frequently the participant prioritises the standard operating procedures and look to protect the credibility of the organisation they are employed by. (4) Environmental impact – How frequently the participant prioritises the environment and the long-term impact their decision may have. The participant is required to drag and drop the possible solutions in order of priority. Responses are scored on a scale of 1-4 with the highest-priority solution rated as four. The participant has up to 60 seconds (a clock counts down on the screen) to read the four solutions and associated risks and decide in what order to prioritise them. If a player fails to respond in the allotted amount of time they will be forced to move on to the next scenario. Participants who respond in under 30 seconds will be reminded that they might want to slow down their decision making to ensure their decision is based on analytical thinking and not instinct. If a participant takes between 30 and 50 seconds to respond, then they are

Bridging training and research Understanding the relationship between leadership expertise and priorities during an Ebola outbreak presented with a message that congratulates them on taking a fair amount of time to consider their response. Finally, if the participant takes between 50 and 60 seconds to respond then they are reminded that effective leaders need to make quick decisions during a crisis and warned that if they had taken much longer than they may have failed to make a decision quick enough. The times for responses of course do not represent the time for decision making in the DRC but within the game they provide a sense of pressure and urgency. This also avoids participants over thinking the problem which means that their natural biases are more likely to be exposed. Once participants have completed all eight scenarios, they will be invited to review their results. The results page presents a bar chart that shows the participant how they prioritised each of the four variables during the task. After reviewing their results, participants will then be able to view a debrief page that gives them a more detailed understanding of what their results mean in relation to them as a leader. 3.5 procedure Participants will be recruited via social media calls. A link to the game (http://outbreak.cdsds.uk/) and a brief

• verview of the aims will be provided.

3.6 analysis Statistical analysis will be conducted using SPSS. These results will then inform the next iteration of this project. This approach of recording modelling and analysing human behaviour is an important step towards being able to predict leadership behaviour during crises.

References

[1] Sieff, G., & Carstens, L. The relationship between personality type and leadership focus. SA Journal of Human Resource Management, 4, 52-62 (2006) [2] Boin, A., & Hart, P. T. Public leadership in times of crisis: mission impossible?. Public Administration Review, 63 5, 544-553 (2003) [3] Bali, S. Fear casts a long shadow: Zika virus and the lessons from Ebola. Retrieved from https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/fear-casts-long- shadow-zika-virus-lessons-from-ebola-bali-ph-d-/ (2016) [4] Coombs,W. Ongoing crisis communication: Planning, managing and responding. Thousands Oaks, CA: Sage (1999) [5] Mitroff, I., & Pearson, C. M. Crisis management: A diagnostic guide for improving your organization’s crisis-preparedness. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass (1993). [6] Pheng, L., Ho, D., & Ann, Y. Crisis management: A survey of property development firms. Property Management, 17, 231-251 (1999). [7] Harvey, F., Ammar, W., Endo, H., Gupta, G. R., Konyndyk, J, M., Matsoso, M, P., & Tam, T. From “never again” to the “new normal”: What does the 2018-2019 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo tell us about the state of global epidemic and pandemic preparedness and response? A report by the "Independent Oversight and Advisory Committee for the WHO Health Emergencies Programme" as a contribution to the work of the "Global Preparedness Monitoring Board". Retrieved from http://apps.who.int/gpmb/assets/thematic_papers/tr- 7.pdf (2019) [8] GOV.UK. New UK aid funding to tackle Ebola in DRC. Retrieved from https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-uk-aid- funding-to-tackle-ebola-in-drc (2019) [9] World Health Organisation (WHO). Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo. Retrieved from https://www.who.int/csr/don/19- september-2019-ebola-drc/en/ (2019) [10] Mikels, J. A., Maglio, S. J., Reed, A. E., & Kaplowitz, L. J. Should I go with my gut? Investigating the benefits of emotion-focused decision making. Emotion, 11, 743 (2011). [11] Barsh, J., Capozzi, M. M., & Davidson, J. Leadership and innovation. McKinsey Quarterly, 1, 36 (2008)

Author/Speaker Biographies

Dr Leanne K Simpson has worked with the military for

• ver 10 years and completed her PhD in neurocognitive

psychology in 2018. Her research background has looked at neurocognitive processes of military personnel during combat operations as well as the impact of operational deployment on military families. Justin Holt is a highly experienced operations and risk manager with extensive experience of building high- performance and multi-disciplinary teams with over 30 year’s experience in the military. He is skilled in crisis management and developing resilient leadership. Adam Garvey is passionate about Animation/Learning with 5 year’s experience of Multimedia Development experience enabling him to create a variety of Multimedia offerings tailored to blended learning experiences. Jessica Faulkner is a Research Assistant and has been involved in military research for the past two years while completing her undergraduate degree in Psychology. Kelly Mackie has been a digital learning designer for

• ver 16 years creating engaging eLearning programmes,

using Storyline 360 and Adobe Premiere. Kelly provides a full lifecycle of eLearning from storyboard to instructional design, to zip and upload. Karl Manning is a digital learning designer for CDS DS and has worked on a variety of military contracts during his time with the digital development team. Corrina Gee is a senior marketing professional with 20 years’ experience in a variety of sectors. Experience in creating solid marketing strategies resulting in clear, actionable campaigns with robust measurement techniques.