Click to edit Master title style DSP3 - The Power of Choice Role of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Click to edit Master title style DSP3 - The Power of Choice Role of Pricing and Technology

19 April 2012

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Contents

The problem - network perspective

• Load duration and load factor trends

The price signals

• Residential focus
• Past success

Changing and emerging technology

• Hot Water
• Air Conditioning
• Pools

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Demand Side Participation for Networks

• Capacity for the network element on the few peak

load days

• Declining load factor - less efficient use of the network
• Current pricing options to reward behaviours that

improve load factor

• The technology options to make those behaviours

convenient

The demand management programs being undertaken by the distributors are encouraging and are supported as a means of reducing future demand growth and improving network load factors

Electricity Network Capital Program review 2011 p12

• Complex
• Location
• Size
• timing

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• 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percent of half hour periods MW MW 2010/ 11

Inset

3,400 3,700 4,000 4,300 4,600 0% 1% 2% 2010/ 11 Load Duration curve is "peakier" com pared to the 2009/ 10 Load Duration curve. This indicates that the network was under utilised in the 2010/ 11 year com pared to the 2009/ 10 year.

Load Duration Curve

16%

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Click to edit Master title style

• 940

1,880 2,820 3,760 4,700

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

2008/09 3,300 3,580 3,860 4,140 4,420 4,700 0% 1% 2007/08 3,300 3,580 3,860 4,140 4,420 4,700 0% 1% 2006/07 3,300 3,580 3,860 4,140 4,420 4,700 0% 1%

11% 12% 13%

2005/06 3,300 3,580 3,860 4,140 4,420 4,700 0% 1%

8%

The peak is getting peakier

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Overall peak demand is growing in SEQ

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Percentage Growth

Energy Grow th Demand Grow th

This is what we are building for This is what we are billing for

Maximum actual peak demand in MW on the ENERGEX network was recorded on 15 February 2010

The Supply Challenge

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C&I peak demand and energy consumption are tracking consistently and the load factor is stable

Commercial and Industrial Customers - Peak Demand Growth vs Energy Growth

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Growth in peak demand C&I Growth in energy sales C&I

The Supply Challenge

50% of energy 40% of MD 20% of assets

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Residential energy consumption has declined while peak demand has increased resulting in a worsening load factor

Residential Customers - Peak Demand Growth vs Energy Growth

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Growth in peak demand residential Growth in energy sales residential

The Supply Challenge

50% of energy 60% of MD 80% of assets

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Current Residential Price Signals

• Economy T33 and Super Economy
• T31 60% reduction, 8 hours per day - $5.54 month
• T33 40% reduction, 18 hours per day - $5.54 month
• Normal - T11 - with a monthly fixed $7.96 month
• Inclining Block Tariff T11- 1 July 2012
• Voluntary Time of Use Tariff T12 - 1 July 2012

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Block 1 Block 2 Block 3 Off-Peak Shoulder Peak Off-Peak Shoulder

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Block 2 Block 3

Proposed retail tariffs – IBT, TOU, Fixed Charge

Source: QCA Draft Determination Regulated Retail Electricity Prices 2012-13

Proposed Fixed Charge

This is a charge that, in application, is charged at a rate of 78.674 cents per day (ex GST) for all customers on T11 (IBT) and T12 (ToU) Monthly charge equates to approx $23.94 per month (ex GST).

Proposed Time of Use Tariff

Saturday / Sunday

1 2 3 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Time of Day Tariff Block / Level

Shoulder Off‐Peak

Proposed Time of Use Tariff

Monday ‐ Friday

1 2 3 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Time of Day Tariff Block / Level

Shoulder Peak Off‐Peak

Proposed Inclining Block Tariff

1 2 3 0‐5,000 kWh 5,001‐10,000 kWh 10,001+ kWh kWh per year Tariff Block / Level

Block 1 Block 2 Block 3

Proposed Controlled Load – Economy, Super Economy

Source: QCA Draft Determination Regulated Retail Electricity Prices 2012-13

The gazetted minimum payment of $5.54 per month ex GST for Tariff 31 and Tariff 33 have been removed with no minimum charge applying in the 2012-13 gazette

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Proposed Controlled Load Tariffs V Proposed ToU Shoulder

1 2 3 Tariff 31 Tariff 33 ToU Shoulder Tariff Tariff Block / Level

31 33 Shoulder

Controlled load tariffs were effective –

Hot Water - Behaviours are changing

Tariff Connection by Year of Premise Creation 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Proportion of Tariff Combinations Tariff 11 Only Tariff 11 & Off-Peak

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Controlled load tariffs now –

Regaining lost ground with focus on GHE hot water

Proportion of new domestic dwellings that have installed controlled load tariff

0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Month % of Dwellings

T9000 (T31) T9100 (T33)

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Prices signals

• The proposed ToU and IBT are steps on a journey towards

more cost reflective price signals

• Features that need to be signalled to customers
• Capacity - pay for the demand you choose
• Peak Events - take a reward if choose to respond

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Extract from Paul Simshauser Presentation at AEMC Forum 1 April 2011

And customers will respond to signals …

The next steps

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Technology

• Old Demand Management Technology
• Electric Storage Hot water, some Pools pumps
• Limited visibility – and care factor
• Now AS4755 Air Conditioners are for sale this year
• High care factor
• many appliances could be managed if the

incentive and convenience are present

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Greenhouse Efficient Hot Water Systems

Old system generally on controlled load

• 2-2.5 hrs per day, 3.6 kW element
• 3000 – 3300 kWh per year - cost $305
• Contribution to network - $150
• impact on Peak , nil

New electric boost solar, usually T11

• 2 hrs per day 15 days per year 3.6 kW element
• 108 kWh per year cost $24
• Contribution to network $12
• impact on peak, up to $7,500 before diversity, nil if

connected to controlled load circuit

Load Management – Hot Water Load Forecast

84 42 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Winter

If H/W Load is Not Controlled H/W Controlled (existing)

Number of Substations Peaking in Winter

With / Without Existing Hot Water Load Control

Number of Substations

Load Management – Hot Water Load Forecast

With Switching Program

• Reduce the number of Winter peaking subs by 42
• System and Individual peaks are reduced on average by ~ 7% (some

up to 14%)

• Provides 95 substations with reduction of > 3%

(predominately Winter, but some Summer)

Load Control drops the winter peak

Pools

• Two offers in the market
• Connection to controlled load T33
• Direct circuit from the

switchboard to the pump socket

• utlet
• High efficiency pump with variable

speed drive

• And you can do both
• Strong industry support, great value

for consumers

Click to edit Master title style Building on the foundation:

PeakSmart Air-Conditioning

This is NOT about turning off air conditioners! Comfort is King Sophisticated Demand Management

• A/C demand management is designed to minimise

any perceivable change Standards / Manufacturers - AS4755 New Demand Reduction AC Technology

• Input energy capping NOT Compressor cycling

(ECC & Cool change) Industry led model: Work with AC manufacturers, sales & installation channels to target new AC units from 2012 Target >66,000 units in SE Qld by 2015 (30MW peak load reduction)

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5 summer events throughout 2011. All days greater than 30°

PRELIMINARY RESULTS ONLY

Consumption based tariff trial

• Average Brisbane results

Where are we headed? Smart Solutions

BRISBANE

Control vs Consumption Trial Participants (MDPD)

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Time of Day

Half hourly electricity usage (kWh) Consumption Group Control Group

To achieve peak demand reductions

• Communications
• SMS or phone call
• Day before notice
• Response
• Voluntary
• Varied, not usually air conditioning
• People found capacity when given the opportunity and

incentive

• Meter comms only used for data collection, process could be

run on standard interval meters

• With Home automation could be seamless and convenient
• Appliances with capability
• Incentives to reward

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Peak demand reductions in 2025

(Source: DCCEE)

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 NSW - SMD NSW - WMD Vic - SMD Vic - WMD Qld - SMD Qld - WMD SA- SMD SA - WMD WA - SMD WA - WMD Tas - SMD Tas - WMD NT - SMD NT - WMD ACT - SMD ACT - WMD MW Controllable Reduction in Peak Demand Water Heaters (Elec phased out) Pool Pumps Air Conds

RIS

When it be released?

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Key Messages

• Load duration and load factor need to be

improved to achieve lower cost (capital efficiency)

• Simple price signals
• Capacity, Time of Use
• Critical peak
• Technology - responding to Peak Demand
• Incentives and rewards
• Comfort and convenience
• Ubiquitous and voluntary

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