Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife Benjamin Zuckerberg, Karine - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife Benjamin Zuckerberg, Karine Princ, and Lars Pomara Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin-Madison Acknowledgements Brad Potter Upper Midwest and Great Lakes LCC Karl Martin

SLIDE 1

Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife

Benjamin Zuckerberg, Karine Princé, and Lars Pomara Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin-Madison

SLIDE 2

Acknowledgements

Jeremy Ash, Jesse Koyen, Win Sim Tan Research assistants Karl Martin Wisconsin DNR Olivia LeDee, Mike Larson Minnesota DNR Chris Hoving Michigan DNR Dave Lorenz, Mike Notaro, Brooke Bateman UW-Madison Brad Potter Upper Midwest and Great Lakes LCC John Tirpak Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks LCC Megan Skrip University of Rhode Island

Zuckerberg Climate Change Ecology Lab

David Bonter, Wes Hochachka Cornell

SLIDE 3

Anthropogenic Climate Change

Rising temperatures Shifting precipitation Attenuating winters Onset of spring Extreme weather Ocean acidification

SLIDE 4

Ecological response

Distributions: Shifts in space Dynamics: Shifts in demography Biotic interactions: Shifts in communities Phenology: Shifts in time

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Distributions: Shifts in space Dynamics: Shifts in demography Biotic interactions: Shifts in communities Phenology: Shifts in time

Ecological response

SLIDE 6

Poleward Shifts

SLIDE 7

Chen et al. 2011 Science

Relationship between observed and expected range shifts in response to climate change

Northward shift of 16.9 km per decade

Poleward Shifts

SLIDE 8

More than half of observed animal range boundaries have already shown a response to anthropogenic warming

Poleward Shifts

SLIDE 9

Shifting ranges of individual species result in a re-shuffling

f communities

Sentinels of Climate Change

SLIDE 10

SLIDE 11

Southeast Region

Red-bellied Woodpecker Northern Cardinal Mourning Dove Tufted Titmouse Carolina Wren American Goldfinch Downy Woodpecker Blue Jay

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Mid-Atlantic Region

Red-bellied Woodpecker Northern Cardinal Mourning Dove Tufted Titmouse Carolina Wren American Goldfinch Downy Woodpecker Blue Jay Black-capped Chickadee Northern Cardinal Mourning Dove Dark-eyed Junco Tufted Titmouse Red-bellied Woodpecker Downy Woodpecker House Finch

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Black-capped Chickadee Northern Cardinal American Goldfinch Mourning Dove Blue Jay White-breasted Nuthatch Red-bellied Woodpecker Dark-eyed Junco

Great Lake Region

Northern Cardinal Mourning Dove Tufted Titmouse Carolina Wren American Goldfinch Downy Woodpecker Blue Jay Black-capped Chickadee Northern Cardinal Mourning Dove Dark-eyed Junco Tufted Titmouse Red-bellied Woodpecker American Tree Sparrow Downy Woodpecker House Finch

SLIDE 14

Species Thermal Index (STI )

measures the long-term temperature experienced by individual species over its range

STI = - 6.77

4.45

SLIDE 15

Community Thermal Index (CTI)

reflects, for a species assemblage, the balance between cold- and warm-temperature dwelling species

CTI𝑘 =

𝑏𝑗,𝑘 × 𝑇𝑈𝐽𝑗

𝑜 𝑗=1

𝑏𝑗,𝑘

𝑜 𝑗=1

CTI𝑘 =

𝑇𝑈𝐽𝑗

𝑜 𝑗=1

𝑜

Unweighted CTI Weighted CTI

Devictor V et al. (2008) Birds are tracking climate warming, but not fast enough. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 275, 2743-2748.

SLIDE 16

T0 T1

CTI

Community Thermal Index (CTI)

SLIDE 17

2.2 ± 0.1 x 10-3 °C yr-1 Warm-adapted birds increasing in their dominance

Community Thermal Index

1990 2000 2012

SLIDE 18

1990 2012

Community Thermal Index

5.3 × 10-3 4.1 × 10-3 2.5 × 10-3 0.7 × 10-3

SLIDE 19

1.6 x 10-3 2.7 x 10-3

Community Thermal Index

1990 2000 2012

Which species are driving CTI trends?

Jackknife analysis: species’ contribution (Csp)

Csp

SLIDE 20

Body mass (log-scale) Northern range boundary Trend in occupancy

Which species are driving CTI trends?

Csp

Smaller-bodied Southerly Increasing

SLIDE 21

Wildlife response

Distributions: Shifts in space Dynamics: Shifts in demography Biotic interactions: Shifts in communities Phenology: Shifts in time

SLIDE 22

Exposure

Conditions vary over time and space

Sensitivity

Populations respond to environmental change

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

Demographic niche modeling Conservation efforts Vulnerability

SLIDE 23

Weaker cycling Stronger cycling

Climate change and population cycling

Relative abundance

Ruffed Grouse Bonasa umbellus

SLIDE 24

Ruffed Grouse Bonasa umbellus

Ron Austing

Sensitivity

Adult and juvenile survival and nest success, 1963-2009 Studies 17 Site-year combinations 51 Individual-years, telemetered birds 2490 Monitored nests 498

SLIDE 25

Cold High snow Warm Rain Cold Low snow Warm Low snow

Low expected survival High expected survival

Winter Climate Anomalies

Year 2000 Precip in driest month

Diana McElroy

Sensitivity

SLIDE 26

Diana McElroy

Predicted survival, 2000

Nonbreeding survival

Min temp * Min precip

Deviance explained: 89%

Sensitivity

SLIDE 27

Predicted nest success, 2000

Nest success

Max temp + Max precip

Deviance explained: 68%

Sensitivity

SLIDE 28

Exposure

Spatially explicit demographic models

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Life cycle

m Nest success ρ Breeding season survival ϕ Nonbreeding survival

N per cell, 1999

2000 2001

Exposure

Spatially explicit demographic models

SLIDE 30

Ruffed Grouse spring drumming survey >300 survey routes Minnesota DNR 1982 - 2013 Michigan DNR 1990 - 2013 Wisconsin DNR 1994 - 2013

SLIDE 31

Model Evaluation

1982 - 2013

Model prediction: mean N / cell Mean drums / route N per cell, 2000

SLIDE 32

Future forecasts

1982 - 2080 CMIP5, rcp8.5

Mean drums / route N per cell, 2060 Model prediction: N / cell

SLIDE 33

Ecological Impacts of Climate Change

Population dynamics Cycling and extinction risk Poleward shifts Reshuffling of species Sensitivity Climate influences vital rates Exposure Variation in climate variability