Climate change in Macao and Climate change in Macao and Climate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
climate change in macao and climate change in macao and
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Climate change in Macao and Climate change in Macao and Climate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 05, 2022 38 likes •391 views

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

slide-1
SLIDE 1

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

澳 門 地 球 物 理 暨 氣 象 局 澳 門 地 球 物 理 暨 氣 象 局 澳 門 地 球 物 理 暨 氣 象 局 澳 門 地 球 物 理 暨 氣 象 局

Macao meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Climate change in Macao and Climate change in Macao and projections for the 21st century projections for the 21st century

Tang Tang Iu Iu Man, Chan Cheng Man, Chan Cheng Hou Hou, Fong , Fong Soi Soi Kun, Kun, Leong Ka Cheng, Wang Leong Ka Cheng, Wang Anyu Anyu, Wu , Wu Chisheng Chisheng, Wang Ting, Liu , Wang Ting, Liu Ji Ji Second International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC2009) Second International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC2009) 6-9 October 2009 in Hong Kong 9 October 2009 in Hong Kong

Climate change in Macao and Climate change in Macao and projections for the 21st century projections for the 21st century

Tang Tang Iu Iu Man, Chan Cheng Man, Chan Cheng Hou Hou, Fong , Fong Soi Soi Kun, Kun, Leong Ka Cheng, Wang Leong Ka Cheng, Wang Anyu Anyu, Wu , Wu Chisheng Chisheng, Wang Ting, Liu , Wang Ting, Liu Ji Ji Second International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC2009) Second International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC2009) 6-9 October 2009 in Hong Kong 9 October 2009 in Hong Kong

slide-2
SLIDE 2

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Outline Outline

Introduction Result Summary

slide-3
SLIDE 3

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Outline Outline

Introduction Result Summary

slide-4
SLIDE 4

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Introduction Introduction

Description of the field site

Macao SAR

Colina da Penha Fortaleza do Monte Colina da Guia SMG (Taipa Grande) do Monte

slide-5
SLIDE 5

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

  • 1901~2007 daily average temperature
  • Site transference

1.

1903~1904 Colina da Penha

  • Colina da Guia

2.

May, 1966 Colina da Guia

  • Fortaleza do Monte

3.

Aug., 1996 Fortaleza do Monte

  • Taipa Grande

Introduction Introduction

Description of the data

Aug., 1996 Fortaleza do Monte

  • Taipa Grande
  • Difference of Monitoring Schedule

1.

1901~1920s, 5 times per day

  • 04、

、 、 、10、 、 、 、13、 、 、 、16、 、 、 、20

  • ’clock

2.

1920s ~ 1950s, 3 times per day

  • 09、

、 、 、15、 、 、 、21 o’clock

3.

1950s ~ hourly data

slide-6
SLIDE 6

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Regression method is used to establish the relationship

between the daily average temperature (1952 to 2000) and other elements (3 or 5 times per day record, max. and min. temperature). Using this equation to estimate the daily average temperature (before 1952) from 3 or 5 times per day record, max. and min temperature.

Introduction Introduction

Description of the data

times per day record, max. and min temperature.

Use regression equation between H.K. and Macao data to

verify the data or missing value.

After analyzing the curve of interannual variability of

temperature difference between HK and Macao. The difference from 0.19 drop to 0.15 in first site transference, but no significant change during other site transferences

slide-7
SLIDE 7

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

The continuous wavelet

transform of a discrete sequence xn is defined as the convolution of xn with a scaled and translated version of ():

Introduction Introduction

Wavelet transform

version of 0():

Source: Torrence, C. and Gilbert P.C., A practical guide to wavelet analysis, 1998

slide-8
SLIDE 8

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Introduction Introduction

Wavelet transform

Morlet wavelet, consisting of a plane wave

modulated by a Gaussian:

Source: Torrence, C. and Gilbert P.C., A practical guide to wavelet analysis, 1998

where 0 is the nondimensional frequency,

here taken to be 6, this gives a value of =1.03s, where is the Fourier period.

slide-9
SLIDE 9

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Introduction Introduction

20C3M (1850/1870~1999/2000)

  • 18 models

A2 High emission (2001~2100)

  • 11 models

A1B Medium(2001~2100)

  • 17 models

B1 Low(2001~2100)

  • 14 models

Elements (monthly average temperature and precipitation) The spatial resolution and simulated period is difference between those models

slide-10
SLIDE 10

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Introduction Introduction

21st projection

slide-11
SLIDE 11

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Introduction Introduction

21st projection

South China region 1 (SC1)

  • (20~26N, 108~118E)

20C3M monthly data

  • (1901~2000)annual、

、 、 、seasonal

A2, A1B, B1 monthly data

  • (2001~2100) annual、

、 、 、seasonal

slide-12
SLIDE 12

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Methodology

=average of 17 Southern China stations (1971 ~2000) =simulated average of 20C3M in Southern China =A2/A1B/B1 21st anomaly projection

Introduction Introduction

21st projection

=A2/A1B/B1 21st anomaly projection (base on 1971 to 2000 average) =anomaly projection in Southern China (base on 1971 to 2000 average)

Ymacao=A*Xsc + B A,B, are the parameters of

linear regression (1971 to 2000)

slide-13
SLIDE 13

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Outline Outline

Introduction Result: Climate Change in Macao Summary

slide-14
SLIDE 14

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Result Result

Annual mean surface temperature trend

1

0.066℃ ℃ ℃ ℃/10a

  • 1

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Thin line indicates time series of anomaly of annual mean surface temperature (1901~2007). Thick line represents 41 points local weighted average. Cold period

slide-15
SLIDE 15

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Result Result

Wavelet spectrum for annual mean surface temperature

2-5 yr band The wavelet spectrum for Macao annual mean surface temperature time series using the Morlet wavelet (left). Cross-hatched regions on either end indicate the “cone of influence”, where edge effects become important. The thick contour encloses regions of greater than 90% confidence for a red-noise process; The thick solid line is the global wavelet spectrum for Macao Temperature (right). The dashed line is the 90% confidence level for the global wavelet spectrum. 60-70 yr band

slide-16
SLIDE 16

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Result Result

Wavelet spectrum for annual mean surface temperature

0.065 0.13 1901 1921 1941 1961 1981 2001 Scale-average wavelet power over the 2-5 yr band for the Macao annual mean surface temperature (solid). The thin dashed line is the 90% confidence level for Macao annual mean surface temperature.

slide-17
SLIDE 17

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

  • 400

400 800 1200

Result Result

Annual total precipitation Trend

47mm/10a

  • 1200
  • 800

1907 1927 1947 1967 1987 2007

Thin line indicates time series of anomaly of annual total precipitation. Thick line represents 41 points local weighted average.

slide-18
SLIDE 18

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

2-5 yr band

Result Result

Wavelet spectrum for annual total precipitation

11-15 yr band The wavelet spectrum for Macao annual total precipitation time series using the Morlet wavelet (left). Cross-hatched regions on either end indicate the “cone of influence”, where edge effects become important. The thick contour encloses regions of greater than 90% confidence for a red-noise process; The thick solid line is the global wavelet spectrum for Macao precipitation (right). The dashed line is the 90% confidence level for the global wavelet spectrum.

slide-19
SLIDE 19

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

29.5 30 30.5

perature(℃ ℃ ℃ ℃)

The Return Period of Max. daily min. temperature in 20th Century

1901~1930 1941~1970 1978~2007

Result Result

Return Period of Extreme Case using Gumbel method

27.5 28 28.5 29 29.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

  • Max. daily min. tempe

Yr 1978~2007

The return period(the night over 29℃ ℃ ℃ ℃) is from 1 per 20 yr drop to 1 per 5 yr

slide-20
SLIDE 20

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

4 5 6 rature (℃ ℃ ℃ ℃)

The Return Period of Min. daily min. temperature in 20th Century

1901~1930 1941~1970

Result Result

Return Period of Extreme Case using Gumbel method

The Return Period of Extreme low temp. (2 ℃ ℃ ℃ ℃) from 1 per 12 yr become to 1 per 30 yr

1 2 3 4 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

  • Min. daily min. tempera

Yr 1978~2007

slide-21
SLIDE 21

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Outline Outline

Introduction Result: Projection for 21st Century Summary

slide-22
SLIDE 22

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Result Result

Macao Vs SC1 Data

SC1 annual temperature Macao vs SC1 1951~2007

The relationship in last 30 yr is better than that in last 50 yr

Macao annual temperature Macao vs SC1 1971~2007

Y=0.968x+0.024 R2=0.768 √ √ √ √

in last 50 yr

slide-23
SLIDE 23

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Spring Summer

R2 = 0.39 R2 = 0.817

Macao vs SC1

Result Result

Macao Vs SC1 Data

Autumn Winter

R2 = 0.861 R2 = 0.752

1971~2007

slide-24
SLIDE 24

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Result Result

Simulation using Superensemble method

Simulation (1971~2000) Validation (2001~2008) Using Lawson Hanson Non negative least square

slide-25
SLIDE 25

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Result Result

21st Projection using Superensemble method

Superensemble Vs Vs Ensemble average

slide-26
SLIDE 26

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Annual Temperature Change reference of the 1971~2000 mean

4.0 5.0 )

OBS B1 mean A1B mean A2 mean

Result Result

21st Projection for Macao

  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 1 9 1 1 9 1 1 1 9 2 1 1 9 3 1 1 9 4 1 1 9 5 1 1 9 6 1 1 9 7 1 1 9 8 1 1 9 9 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 2 4 1 2 5 1 2 6 1 2 7 1 2 8 1 2 9 1

Decade

Temperature Change (C)

A2 mean Ensemble mean Upper limit Lower limit

Annual Temperature Change reference of the 1971 ~ 2000 mean

22.4 25.1

slide-27
SLIDE 27

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Projected Annual and Seasonal Ensemble Mean Temperatre Change reference of the 1971~2000 normal 2.5 3.0 e (C)

Annual Spring Summer

Winter > Autumn = Spring > Summer

Result Result

21st Projection for Macao

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Decade

Temperature Change (

Autumn Winter

Projected Annual and Seasonal Ensemble mean Temperature Change reference of the 1971 ~ 2000 mean

slide-28
SLIDE 28

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Result Result

21st Projection for Macao: Synoptic-scale meteorology

The effect of Cold Mass Decrease???

South China region 1 (SC1)

  • (20~26N, 108~118E)

Decrease???

slide-29
SLIDE 29

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Projected Macau Very Hot (> 33.0C) Days

80.0 OBS

澳門夏季平均溫與酷熱(高溫>33C)日數關係

y = 18.318x - 499 y = 18.318x - 499 y = 18.318x - 499 y = 18.318x - 499 R R R R2

2 2 2 = 0.3903

= 0.3903 = 0.3903 = 0.3903

20 40 60 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.5

溫度 酷 熱 日 數

su33 線性 ( su33)

Relationship between No. of Very Hot day (Max.

  • Temp. >33℃) and summer average Temp.

More than about 40 days!!!

Result Result

Extreme case projection

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Decade

V e r y H

  • t

D a y s OBS A2 mean A1B mean B1 mean Ensemble mean Upper limit Lower limit

58 17.7

slide-30
SLIDE 30

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Projected Cold Nights (< 12.0C)

1901~2007冬季(12, 1, 2月)平均氣溫與冷夜(最低氣溫 < 12.0 C)日數的 關係 y = -9.4483x + 189.74 R2 = 0.671

20 40 60 80 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

fd12 線性 ( fd12)

Less than about 24 days!!!

Result Result

Extreme case projection

Relationship between No. of Cold Night (Min.

  • Temp. <12℃) and winter average Temp.

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Decade

C

  • l

d N i g h t s

OBS A2 mean A1B mean B1 mean Ensemble mean Upper limit Lower limit

39 14.8

slide-31
SLIDE 31

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Outline Outline

Introduction Result Summary

slide-32
SLIDE 32

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Summary Summary

Overall, the wavelet result shows that the

statistically significant oscillation with 2-5 year period generally exist in the series of climate variables (e.g. annual mean

Climate Change in Macao

climate variables (e.g. annual mean surface temperature and precipitation).

The Temp. and Precipitation increase with

0.066℃/10a and 47mm/10a, respectively.

slide-33
SLIDE 33

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

Temperature will increase 2.66℃

(1.86~3.35) in the end of 21st Century

  • Temp. increase will be most significant in

℃

Summary Summary

21st Projection for Macao

  • Temp. increase will be most significant in

Winter(2.92℃) ,minor both in Spring and Autumn, Summer will be least one(1.91 ℃)

slide-34
SLIDE 34

地球物理暨氣象局

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau

The No. of Cold Night will decrease about

24 days.

The No. of very hot day will increase 40

Summary Summary

21st Projection for Macao

The No. of very hot day will increase 40

days, approximately.

slide-35
SLIDE 35