Economic Stress and the Recession Dorothy Watson, Bertrand Maitre, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Oct 01, 2022 107 likes •215 views

Economic Stress and the Recession Dorothy Watson, Bertrand Maitre, Christopher T. Whelan, James Williams Picture credits: Luka Funduk; Jacek Chabraszewski; William Perugini/Shutterstock Background Debate over who suffered most in the

SLIDE 1

Picture credits: Luka Funduk; Jacek Chabraszewski; William Perugini/Shutterstock

Dorothy Watson, Bertrand Maitre, Christopher T. Whelan, James Williams

Economic Stress and the Recession

SLIDE 2

Background

Debate over ‘who suffered most’ in the recession

(Whelan, Nolan & Maître, 2016a, O’Connor & Staunton, 2016, Social Justice Ireland, 2016; Whelan & Nolan, forthcoming).

– polarisation of inequality – equal impact on all groups or – ‘squeezed middle’

We draw on two waves of GUI data to investigate

family experience of financial stress

SLIDE 3

Outline

The recession – timing and GUI 1998 cohort
Methodology
Descriptive analysis
Model Results
Conclusion

SLIDE 4

Timing of GUI 1998 cohort surveys

80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4

Unemployment (%, Left hand axis) Child benefit, per child (2007=100) One Parent Family with 1 child (2007=100)

9 years wave 1 13 years wave 2

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Methodology

GUI data longitudinal sample of 1998 cohort (age 9 & age 13)
Social class – European Socio-economic Classification (ESeC)

– Higher professional/managerial – Lower professional managerial – Intermediate (clerical, technicians) and self-employed – Lower services, sales; skilled and semi-skilled manual – Routine (unskilled) manual and service

Family Type (Couple with 1-2 children; couple with 3+

children, lone parent)

Economic stress: ‘great difficulty’ or ‘difficulty’ in making

ends meet.

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Descriptive results

Change in economic stress Family type & social class (w1) 17% 27% 19% 22% 16% 18% 36% 46%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Hi Prof/ manag. Lo Prof/ manag

Intermed. /tech

… Lo services, … Routine etc. Lone parent Couple, 1-2 … Couple, 3+ … Social Class Family type 8% 23% 3% 18% 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

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Economic stress by Family Type

4%, 17% 6%, 33% 22%, 50% 18%, 27% 21%, 42% 40%, 30%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Pre-recession (Risk %, Composition %) Recession (Risk %, Composition %) Couple, 1-2 children Couple, 3+ children Lone Parent + 14% but X 4.7 +18% But X 1.8

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Economic stress by social class

2%, 4% 4%, 13% 7%, 16% 10%, 28% 19%, 39% 12%, 8% 17%, 20% 20%, 16% 30%, 28% 40%, 28%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 Pre-recession (Risk %, Composition %) Recession (Risk %, Composition %) Hi profess/ Lo profess/ Intermed./ Lo service/ Routine

manag. manag. tech/ SE sales etc. etc.

+6% but X 6 +21% but X 2

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Model of Economic Stress (odds ratios)

Main effect Interaction with wave 2 Family W1 Lone parent 3.84* 0.51 (Ref: couple, 1-2) Couple, 3+ children 1.27 Class W1 (Ref: Hi Lo profess./manag. 1.45 profess./man)

Intermed. /tech/SE 1.90

Lo service etc. 2.68* Routine etc. 3.59* Income W1 Lowest 8.97* 0.35* (Ref: Highest) Q2 4.88*** 0.46* Q3 2.68 Wave (Ref: Boom) Recession 15.68*

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Conclusions

Polarisation?

– Supported if look at absolute increase in stress by group: greater percentage point increase for more disadvantaged groups – But if viewed in relative terms, we see a reduction in inequalities

General Impact? Shift in the profile of economically

stressed families

– more couple families and higher social class families than in W1

Squeezed middle? Middle and higher classes were

not immune from the impact of the recession

– They experienced a level of stress that was new to them – Social protection system provided an important safety net to vulnerable families, narrowing the class and family type gaps