Energy Demand: What are the challenges now? Teddinet, London, 15 th - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Environmental Change Institute

June 27, 2018

Energy Demand: What are the challenges now? Teddinet, London, 15th June 2018 Nick Eyre

The long term trend in fossil fuels use

IPCC WGIII, 2014

...and the implications of the Paris Agreement

Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Meinshausen, M., Knutti, R., Alcamo, J., Riahi, K., Hare, W., 2015. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection. Environmental Research Letters 10, 105007.

Almost all analysis shows that either a 1.5C

• r 2C target implies
• early action and rapid

decarbonisation

• Changes in energy

supply and demand

• A major role for

electrification

Demand Side Issues in Future Energy Systems

§ Energy efficiency and conservation: § reducing demand § Demand response: § shifting demand in time § Fuel switching, e.g. electrification: § increasing electricity demand § Distributed generation and storage: § Challenging the supply/demand dichotomy

Technology-human interactions matter

Socio-technical change

§ The frequency and intensity of energy service demand

matters; and is socially/culturally driven.

§ Social change is happening, especially, but not only

driven by digital change.

§ There is a design-use ‘performance gap’ across a

wide range of products

§ Buildings tend to be an extreme case: § They are very diverse § They constructed on site, with variable skill levels, § They host multiple energy services.

Challenges for policy and research

§ How do low energy systems (especially

buildings) perform in practice?

§ How do we innovate (technically, socially and

commercially) and disseminate learning?

§ How do we up-skill supply chains to deliver? § How do we ‘up-educate’ users? § Where and how can smart systems help? § How do we design the ‘smart/dumb’ interface?

New challenge 1 - Energy and time Two aspects

§ Balancing electricity supply and demand § Balancing heat supply and demand

The share of wind & solar varies from 2% to 70% of 60 GW

• demand. This requires other parts of the system to be flexible

Solar and wind supply in Germany, August 2015 (Ehlers, 50 Hz)

The balancing problem in electricity

The challenge of delivering flexibility

§ Electricity system balancing will require some

combination of

§ flexible generation, § interconnection. § demand side response (DSR), § storage.

Delivering DSR

Smart metering is an enabler, not a panacea Constraints and drivers on DSR uptake are likely to be:

§ Customer engagement § Social acceptability § Business model innovation § Market and tariff structures

Assuming universal half-hourly pricing may be unrealistic Decision making models based of economic rationality do not work well for energy decisions

Electricity storage

§ Historically expensive,

but battery costs driven down by mobile and transport markets

§ The appropriate scale

and location of deployment are contested

Cost reductions to $150/kWh look feasible, which makes batteries a game-changing technology for diurnal storage

Nykvist, B.& Nilsson, M.Nature Climate Change, 2015

New challenge 2 - Fuel switching

§ 80% of final energy demand is not electricity;

predominantly energy is used in transport and heating.

§ Electrification of transport implies a large increase in

battery storage, which may assist with flexibility.

§ Electrification of heating has very different

characteristics.

Some history of carbon based fuels

First practical use in Europe of carbon based fuels for:

§ electricity: late 19th century § transport: early 19th century § heat: 176,000 years ago. § So it’s not surprising that carbon based heating

is strongly-embedded in our economic and social systems.

Heating demand is highly seasonal

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 GW

Modelled UK End Use Gas Demand

Author calculations based on National Grid modelling methodology

…and is very weather dependent

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 GW

Modelled UK End use Gas Demand

Average Cold

Author calculations based on National Grid modelling methodology

Problems for UK heat decarbonisation

Sources of zero carbon fuel are limited

§ Indigenous biofuel is limited § Complete dependence on electric heat pumps would

lead to implausible requirements for electricity capacity.

§ CCS is expensive and not established

So infrastructure requirements are not known

§ Electricity is not a complete solution § Heat networks alone don’t address the key

questions of the heat source.

§ Re-purposing of gas networks is possible,

but implies a major hydrogen programme. All of which indicates that reducing heat demand will be important

The Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions (CREDS):

What is it?

• A research centre funded by the Energy Programme of UK

Research and Innovation for the period April 2018 to March 2023, with a budget of £19.5 million.

• A distributed centre, involving thirteen UK universities, with

an HQ at University of Oxford.

• A mandate to undertake whole system research focussing
• n energy demand and to act as a ‘hub’ for the UK energy

demand research community.

A UK Centre for Research on Energy Demand: Why?

• Energy system context:
• Systemic change to low/zero carbon over a few decades;
• Security and affordability remain social and political priorities;
• Changes in energy demand will be critical to delivery, but this

is under-recognised in much public discourse.

• UK Research and Innovation landscape context:
• EUED Phase 1 Centres provide a strong base of research;
• Some deficiencies in coherence and therefore the impact of the

RCUK EUED Programme

The Centre’s Aims

• to develop and deliver internationally leading

research, focussing on energy demand;

• to secure impact for UK energy demand

research in businesses and policymaking;

• to champion the importance of energy demand,

as part of the strategy for transition to a secure and affordable low carbon energy system.

Centre Structure and Governance

Research Programme Design Criteria

• Criteria for selection of research themes:
• Sufficiently comprehensive to be an effective ‘hub’

for the UK energy demand research community;

• Sufficiently focussed to allow for exciting and

innovative research.

• Criteria for selection of research topics
• Further – going beyond currently cost effective

technologies and minor behavioural changes;

• Faster – increasing the pace of innovation, and

using more ambitious policy intervention;

• Flexibly – adding fuel switching and demand

response to the demand reduction agenda.

Transport Buildings Materials

Policy Flexibility

Themes

Digital

CREDS: key dates and information

• Now: General enquiries email:

ukcredadmin@eci.ox.ac.uk

• Coming soon: Website (temporary)

http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/creds/index.html

• Centre launch – London, 20th September
• Challenges call for outline proposals: October

2018

• Flexible Fund first call: Spring 2019

Spare slides

Year 1 Integrating Project: Energy Demand Change in the Clean Growth Strategy (Lead: Eyre, Oxford)

• Research Questions: How will the ambitious energy demand aims be delivered?

What social and technical changes? And what are the innovation and policy implications?

• Key outputs: an academic review paper and policy briefing.

StrategicArea Lead Theme Business and Industry Efficiency Materials Improving Our Homes Buildings Low Carbon Transport Transport Clean, Smart, Flexible Power Flexibility

Theme 1: Buildings (Oreszczyn, UCL)

• 1.1: Assessing the co-benefits of energy

efficiency

• Health, comfort, peak power control
• 1.2: Future disrupters of building energy use
• Real-time performance-based building energy

certificates; DSM as a power reduction service

• 1.3: Modelling future pathways for energy use

in buildings

• Data improvement, 3D simulation model

development and applications, with a focus on improved time granularity.

Theme 2: Transport and Mobility (Anable, Leeds)

• 2.1: Targeting high demand
• Characterising high energy users; understanding

long distance transport

• 2.2: Flexing transport demand
• Understanding the flexibility of passenger

mobility; a quantified model of flexibility

• 2.3: Accelerating deployment
• Governance of mobility change; the Commission
• n Travel Demand

Theme 3: Materials and Products (Barrett, Leeds)

• 3.1: Industrial energy demand and energy

efficiency

• Systematic review of options; improved projections;

international comparison and benchmarking

• 3.2: Resource productivity and the circular

economy

• Whole life mitigation options; national metrics of

resource productivity; case study on construction resource productivity.

• 3.3: Industrial strategy and energy productivity
• Improved model of energy as a factor of production;

better representation in models of mitigation

• ptions; assessing implications for UK industrial

strategy

Theme 4: Flexibility (Torriti, Reading)

• 4.1: Defining, conceptualising and

measuring flexibility

• Historical review and future

assessment of demand flexibility; measurement of electricity flexibility; conceptualising flexibility

• 4.2: Intervening to enhance

flexibility

• Understanding user practices with

flexible technologies; time dependent price elasticities; institutional rhythms and flexibility.

Theme 5: Digital Society (Foxon/Sorrell, Sussex)

• 5.1: ICT and energy productivity
• Systematic review of the ICT energy

demand relationship; econometric analysis

• f historical data; scenarios of future

relationships

• 5.2: Business models and the digital

economy

• Digital platforms for the sharing economy;

ICT-enabled energy service business models

• 5.3: Smart systems and user practices
• Smart meters; autonomous vehicles; smart

homes; tele-working

Theme 6: Policy and Governance (Fawcett, Oxford)

• 6.1: Policies for reducing demand further
• Policy for deep refurbishment; policy to increase

citizen engagement

• 6.2: Multi-level governance
• Devolved policy-making in the UK; drivers of

local government engagement with energy demand

• 6.3: Asymmetry in supply and demand policy
• Policy asymmetry in market design;

understanding the political drivers of policy asymmetry; distributed ledgers as a disrupter or retail markets.

Challenge 1- Decarbonisation of Heat (Lowe, UCL)

• WP1: Systematic review of costs,

performance, uncertainties and synergies of key technologies for production, networks, storage and use.

• WP2: Improvement of system models for

analysis of ‘energy system architecture’.

• WP3: Social, regulatory and governance

implications

• WP4: Integration, liaison and

communication

Year 4 and 5 Cross Theme Activity

• Co-create integrating research with

stakeholders.

• Link common strands across the themes, e.g.

related to innovation, investment, costs and benefits to answer questions such as:

• What are the implications for scale of

investment? Where? And by whom?

• Who might be the winners and losers?
• How might innovation be incentivised?
• What are the implications for policy design?

Co-ordination Hub

• Administration, coordination and knowledge exchange activities of

the Centre.

• Critical to the hub function.
• Full Communications and Engagement plan to be developed by

month 6, based on stakeholder mapping.

• Consists of the Director, Centre Manager, 2 x Knowledge Exchange

posts, 0.5 Communications Officer, 0.5 data officer, full-time administration support.

Audiences and Partners

• Our partners and audiences:
• Key partners - innovative businesses, large and small;
• Key partners - policymakers and influencers;
• Other audiences - NGOs, communities and civil society.
• With key partners we will:
• Co-create research questions and approaches;
• Undertake innovative research;
• Exchange knowledge directly, e.g. via meetings and

briefings.

• Other audiences will be addressed through:
• Website, newsletter and social media;
• Non-academic publications and conferences;
• Briefings and events for the media.

Key contacts in CREDS

Nick Eyre, Director, Oxford Clare Downing, Centre Manager, Oxford Co-Directors T adj Oreszczyn , UCL Jillian Anable , Leeds John Barrett, Leeds Jacopo T

• rriti,

Reading Tim Foxon, Sussex Steve Sorrell, Sussex Tina Fawcett , Oxford Bob Lowe, UCL

Knowledge exchange

• fficers

Kay Jenkinso n Sarah Higginson