Flexibility in JRC-EU-TIMES and DISPASET 2.0 Petten, December 4 th - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Flexibility in JRC-EU-TIMES and DISPASET 2.0 Petten, December 4 th - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Flexibility in JRC-EU-TIMES and DISPASET 2.0 Petten, December 4 th 2014 Wouter NIJS Ignacio HIDALGO Sylvain QUOILIN Andreas ZUCKER Christian THIEL Institute for Energy and Transport Energy Technology Policy Outlook Joint Research Centre of

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Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation

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Flexibility in JRC-EU-TIMES and DISPASET 2.0

Petten, December 4th 2014

Wouter NIJS Ignacio HIDALGO Sylvain QUOILIN Andreas ZUCKER Christian THIEL

Institute for Energy and Transport Energy Technology Policy Outlook Joint Research Centre of the European Commission

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  • JRC-EU-TIMES
  • Key features and illustrative results
  • Improved representation of variable electricity
  • Ongoing work on flexibility in JRC-EU-TIMES
  • Addressing flexibility issues in the power sector
  • DISPASET 2.0
  • Unit Commitment and dispatch Model
  • Ongoing work

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Outline

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JRC-EU-TIMES: key characteristics

  • Model horizon: 2005-2050 (2075)
  • 70 exogenous demands for energy services

across 5 demand sectors (agriculture, residential, commercial, industry, and transport)

  • Economic drivers taken from latest EU Energy

Reference Scenario (since 2014)

  • Explicit representation of country-to-country electricity and gas flows, incl.

import / exports with non-European regions

  • Electricity multi-grid model (high, medium and low voltage grid), tracking

demand-supply via 12 time slices (4 seasons, 3 diurnal periods), and gas across 4 seasons

  • Country specific differences for characterisation of the conversion and end-

use technologies

  • Renewable potentials (onshore wind, offshore wind, geothermal, biomass,

biogas, hydro)

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JRC-EU-TIMES illustrative results

Electricity production Flexibility for storage and DSM

2010 2050

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Important when high penetration of variable RES

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JRC-EU-TIMES coverage flexibility needs

  • 1. Maintenance
  • 2. Primary reserve (Frequency

control)

  • 3. Up/down ramp rates

(operational reserves)

  • 4. Min up and down time
  • 5. Part load efficiency
  • 6. Start-up costs
  • 7. Min. stable generation
  • 8. Max. generation
  • 9. Grid congestion

10.Energy balance, variability

  • f RES supply

DC power flow equations are integrated for Central Europe

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1.Force possible excess electricity from PV, wind and wave to be used by flexible demand, curtailed, stored or converted into another carrier [Gwhe] 2.Ensure sufficient storage charging capacity [Gwe]

To ensure that the model invests not only in sufficient storage capacity in energy terms, but also in sufficient storage capacity in power terms

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Improved representation of variable electricity in large energy system models

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OTHER (20) RES (80) TRADITIONAL

High penetration of variable RES

Demand Example summer day hours

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OTHER (20) RES (80) 20% of Demand Maximum Power

  • f the combined

variable RES systems in a timeslice/region TRADITIONAL NEW Demand Possible excess electricity Based on the maximum power of the combined variable RES systems Example summer day hours By using the production profile information

High penetration of variable RES

RES (20) RES (60) OTHER (40)

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RES (60) 20% of Demand Maximum Power

  • f the combined

variable solar systems in a timeslice/region EXCESS (20) OTHER (40) D

High penetration of variable RES

  • 2. 𝑆𝐹𝑇 − 0.8 𝐸

4 = Curt. or stored (1)

RES (20)

0.2 D +

0.8 𝐸 4

= 𝑁𝑗𝑜. 𝑒𝑗𝑡𝑞𝑏𝑢𝑑ℎ𝑏𝑐𝑚𝑓 (2)

Factor "2": depends on timeslice and technology

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Small underestimation

Accurate representation Small

  • verestimation

High penetration of variable RES

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OTHER (40) PV (60) EXCESS (20)

Additional constraint guarantees that the energy that is not curtailed can be "absorbed" thus forcing the investment in storage power capacity (Gwe) Sufficient storage charging capacity

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  • Assess the value of energy storage and grid expansion
  • Test representing every single hour as well as limited number
  • f representative days
  • Test stochastic modelling of intermittent renewables with two

stages: investment decisions (1) and operational decisions (2)

  • Prepare soft linking with DISPASET

Ongoing work on flexibility in JRC-EU- TIMES power sector

Stage 1

  • Investment decisions-

Stage 2

  • Operational decisions-

2010 2050 2010 2050

Source: Short-term uncertainty in TIMES, ETSAP WS, Seoul, 2013, Pernille Seljom & Asgeir Tomasgard

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Addressing flexibility issues in the power sector

Fully-fledged power sector model with high time resolution

  • Ideally the representation of the power sector in JRC-EU-TIMES includes all

the technical constraints within the relevant time frames.

JRC-EU-TIMES Power sector module

  • In practice the previous approach results in a too-complex (due to

sheer size) model.

  • Interplay between long- and short-term dynamics are taken into

account by coupling JRC-EU-TIMES to a detailed unit commitment model, while preserving some relevant constraints (work in progress).

Detailed unit commitment model JRC-EU-TIMES "Simplified" power sector module Embedded

Economic and demographic drivers Energy supply and demand Long-term capacity planning Short-term power sector constraints Renewable sources availability Storage Hourly demand profiles Overall boundary conditions Operational constraints or constraints on capacity expansion patterns

Inter timeslice relations within TIMES !

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We are developing a state of the art unit commitment model

DISPASET 2.0 Unit Commitment and dispatch Model

  • Formulated as tight and compact MIP
  • Minimise total system costs over a daily horizon, across units,

markets and periods of fixed, variable (fuel and emissions), start-up, shut-down, transmission costs, and load shedding)

  • Hourly demand balances (day ahead, and up and down reserves)
  • Bounds on power output (minimum stable generation, previous

status, installed capacity and availability factors)

  • Ramping constraints
  • Minimum up and down times
  • Storage-related constraints (bounds on stored levels, pumping,

discharge, inter-period storage balances)

  • NTC based market coupling
  • Options for emission limits, curtailment of intermittent generation and

load shedding

  • Forthcoming JRC technical report
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Ongoing work on data

  • Basic plant data (to be based mainly on Platts)
  • Capacity,
  • Location,
  • Fuel and technology,
  • Others (e.g. ownership) currently not relevant
  • Additional data
  • Fuel costs  IEA, TSOs, commodity exchanges, data providers
  • Plant operational parameters  VGB Powertech, VDE, literature, …
  • Plant (un)availability  VGB KISSY (reports)
  • Network data
  • RES data

15 4 December 2014

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DISPASET 2.0 and planned extensions

JRC-EU-TIMES Software link between DISPASET and to JRC EU TIMES

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DISPASET 2.0 Unit Commitment and dispatch Model Scenario generation for stochastic variables and stochastic unit commitment Hydropower Data handling Investment loop Stochasticity Investment decisions and power prices Hydropower constraints resulting from non-power usage and meteorology Connectivity with databases

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Thank you!

Please visit the SETIS website: http://setis.ec.europa.eu

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The Commission's Strategic Energy Technologies Information System