Food Security under Globalized Economy Roles of Science and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Food Security under Globalized Economy

‐ Roles of Science and Technology Cooperation ‐ gy p Osamu Koyama y Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS) for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS)

Key message

Availability Access Utilization (productivity, stability) (income, equity, social safety net) Utilization (safety, quality) Globalized economy Positive aspects Negative aspects Minimize Maximize Global public goods Science and technology Others ……

Main Issues to be Discussed

• 1. Food markets in the globalized economy

What did we learn from the last turmoil? What did we learn from the last turmoil?

• 2. Implications of the globalization for food security

Is the globalization good for food security?

• 3. Competition and coexistence in world agriculture

p g How do we optimize the globalized society? 4 Roles of science and technology cooperation

• 4. Roles of science and technology cooperation

How should Japan act ?

Long term changes in international food price in US$

USD/t

Long-term changes in international food price in US$

900 1,000 USD/t Rice Soybeans 600 700 800 Wheat Maize 400 500 600 200 300 100 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Food price hike in 2007‐2008 Food price hike in 2007 2008

• Policies to promote biofuels
• Linkages between financial and commodity

Linkages between financial and commodity markets Global phenomena M i d i i f b hi d F d l

• Main driving force behind Fundamental

supply‐demand situation R l ti l ti ht it ti ti f

• Relatively tight situation may continue for some

period.

Relation between crude oil price and corn price p p

Source: FAO SoFA (2008)

Lessons learnt from the crisis Lessons learnt from the crisis

St bl f d l h t b f th t

• Stable food supply has to be one of the most

prioritized policy targets.

• Low income food importing countries were

revealed to be unprotected and vulnerable revealed to be unprotected and vulnerable against price instability. i i i d

• Export restrictions were recognized as

inevitable and sometimes acceptable policy

• ptions.

International solutions have to be pursued International solutions have to be pursued.

Consumer Price Index by commodity groups (2005=100) y y g p ( )

120 index 120 Bread 110 Oils, fats & seasonings Food 100 Soybean products Dairy products & eggs General Rice 90 Jan 2006 Jul Jan 2007 Jul Jan 2008 Jul Jan 2009 2006 2007 2008 2009

Consumer Price Index by commodity groups (2005=100) y y g p ( )

160 index 150 160 Cheese 130 140 Spaghetti Instant noodles 120 noodles White bread Edible oil 100 110 Soy sauce Soybean paste 90 Jan 2006 Jul Jan 2007 Jul Jan 2008 Jul Jan 2009 Soybean paste 2006 2007 2008 2009

Result of opinion poll on food security in Japan

100

p p y p

2008

90

%

1996 2000 2006

80 90

policy %

1990 1993

80

for SS

1987

70

upport

60 30 40 50 60

Su SSR in Calorie basis %

Long term changes in international food price in Yen term Long-term changes in international food price in Yen term

1 000yen/t 180 200 1,000yen/t Rice Soybeans 140 160 y Wheat Maize 80 100 120 40 60 20 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

International wheat price and market price in China International wheat price and market price in China

RMB/t 2,500 3,000 2,000 , 1,500 500 1,000 500 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Wheat (Chicago) Wheat (China) Jan 2006 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2007 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2008 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2009 Apr

Domestic wheat price and international price (US$)

Source: FAO

Number of hungry people in the world (in millions) Number of hungry people in the world (in millions)

Source: FAO

Estimated regional distribution of hunger in 2009 (in mil.) and increase from 2008 levels (in %)

Source: FAO

Concept of Food Security Concept of Food Security

Available Available Accessible Edible

F t i k Future risk Instability Present threat y

A framework for understanding food security

Food

ecurity mes

Access Utilization Availability

Food se

• utco

Resources Productivity Income Consumption Human capital

red s/factors

• mes

Desi condition

• utco

Enhanced community resiliency Enhanced livelihood capacities Enhanced human capacities

• od

ty risks

Natural Economic Social & health

Fo securit

Enhancing people’s capacities to overcome political risks

Source: Webb and Rogers, 2003.

Food insecurity

Cereal yield per ha in LDCs is declining Cereal yield per ha in LDCs is declining

4,000 kg/ha 2 500 3,000 3,500 Africa 1 500 2,000 2,500 Asia 500 1,000 1,500 Least Developed Countries 961 964 967 970 973 976 979 982 985 988 991 994 997 000 003 006 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20

LDCs are paying for imported food LDCs are paying for imported food

billion USD 25 billion USD 15 20 10 5 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Import Value Export Value

Returns to investment in agricultural R&D are estimated to be very high.

• 43 % (average of 1673 cases) (Alston and others,

2000)

• If so, why is it underfunded?

P bli d i ll fi bl

• Public goods: commercially unprofitable
• Risky and long‐term: politically unattractive

y g p y

• Borderless spillover: free riding is safer.
• Somebody must provide them.

Somebody must provide them.

Public agricultural R&D expenditure Public agricultural R&D expenditure Regional gaps enlarge

Public R&D 1981 Public R&D 2000 % Ag. GDP 1981 % Ag. GDP 2000 1981 2000 1981 2000 Developing 6,904 12,819 0.52 0.53 Sub‐Saharan Africa 1,196 1,461 0.84 0.72 Asia and Pacific 3,047 7,523 0.36 0.41 West Asia and N. Africa 764 1,382 0.61 0.66

• L. America and Caribbean

1,897 2,454 0.88 1.15 Developed 8,293 12,819 1.41 2.36 Japan 1 832 3 828 1 45 3 62 Japan 1,832 3,828 1.45 3.62 Source: WDR 2008 Unit: million Int’l $ % Unit: million Int’l $, %

Position of Agricultural Support in G8 Position of Agricultural Support in G8

（Hokkaido Toyako Summit 7, July 2008）

・・promote agricultural research and development, and the training of a ne generation of de eloping co ntr scientists

G8 Leaders Statement on Global Food Security (excerpt)

training of a new generation of developing country scientists and experts via the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)・・ ・・accelerate research and development and increase access to new agricultural technologies to boost agricultural production; we will promote science based risk analysis production; we will promote science-based risk analysis including on the contribution of seed varieties developed through biotechnology. ・・accelerate development and commercialization of sustainable second-generation biofuels from non-food plant materials and inedible biomass materials and inedible biomass

22

22

Who is the main actors in S&T development?

Globalized society

p

International bodies Scientific collaboration Multi-nationals Intellectual property

Public goods Competitive society Cooperative society Institutions Infrastructure

R l iti L l k t

society society

Rural communities Knowledge sharing Local market Commercial innovation

Local society

Key message

Availability Access Utilization (productivity, stability) (income, equity, social safety net) Utilization (safety, quality) Globalized economy Positive aspects Negative aspects Minimize Maximize Global public goods Science and technology Others ……

Bilateral Official Development Assistance for agriculture Bilateral Official Development Assistance for agriculture

Total amount for Agriculture (2007) Per cent for Agriculture (2007)

200 400 600 800 1,000 mill.USD

Total amount for Agriculture (2007)

2 4 6 8 10 A t li

% Per cent for Agriculture (2007)

Australia Canada Australia Canada France Germany France Germany Italy Japan Italy Japan U.K. United States U.K. United States

Source: OECD,DAC

Japan's Contribution to the CGIAR Research Agenda Japan s Contribution to the CGIAR Research Agenda

14.0 16.0 40.0 45.0 % mil USD 10.0 12.0 30.0 35.0 6.0 8.0 15 0 20.0 25.0 2.0 4.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Amount (mil USD) Share (%)

Activities of JIRCAS

NARS in Japan Univ. in Japan Aidi Aiding agencies IARCs

Developing regions

NARS Univ.

Developing regions

Conclusions Conclusions

1 Provision of global public goods is

• 1. Provision of global public goods is

indispensable for creating a well balanced l b li d i globalized society.

• 2. Agricultural research is one of the most

g effective ways to enhance food availability as well as food accessibility well as food accessibility.

• 3. Japan, the largest net food importer, must

play a key role in providing global public goods in agriculture. g g