Futures Thinking for Food Systems Transformation 2019 EAT Forum - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Futures Thinking for Food Systems Transformation 2019 EAT Forum Side Event

Purpose

• Engaging discussion on

how futures thinking can help food systems change

• Share ideas on food

systems and foresight

• Introduce

Foresight4Food Initiative

• Your thoughts on how

you could benefit from and contribute to Foresight4Food

Agenda

• Background to Foresight4Food
• Your interests
• Overview of food systems - discussion
• Framework for food systems foresight - discussion
• Foresight4Food Agenda
• Break
• Open space discussion themes
• Take away messages

What is Foresight4Food

A collaborative global initiative to:

• enhance foresight and scenario analysis

capability for food systems transformation

• promote better analysis and synthesis of key

trends and possible futures in global food systems

• support more informed, strategic and systemic

dialogue between the private sector, government, science and civil society

Background

• Initial idea emerged from discussions during

2014 G20 when the need for a long term food systems approach was included in the G20 agenda

• Scoping workshop held in Oxford in April

2017 led to support for aForesight4Food Initiative and formation of follow-up steering group

• Follow-up workshop in Montpellier May

2018 to plan details of taking the initiative forward

• Interest and engagement from over 40 key
• rganisations and platforms
• Pilot work on data synthesis, country

dialogues and community of practice

Your Interests

• Have a chat with your neighbor (5minutes)
• Who are you?
• What attracted you to this session
• What would you like get out of the session
• Briefly share with the room

Basic ic Defin initions

foresight: the ability to judge correctly what is going to happen in the future and plan your actions based on this knowledge (Cambridge dictionary) “Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person’s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about the world and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our creativity and resourcefulness.”

Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World

Some Resources For Getting Started

Framework for Understanding Foresight

Foresig ight in in Context xt

Foresight

Governance Systems Thinking (complexity) Human Cognition

Deeper In Inspirations

Institutional Environment Drivers

Demographics & Development Consumption Technology Climate & Environment Markets Policy & Geopolitics Food & Nutrition Security Environmental Sustainability Economic & Social Well-being

Food System Outcomes Food System Supporting Services

Information Physical Infrastructure Educatio n Inputs Finance Technology Standards Regulations Laws Norms

Natural System Human System Systems

Preferences Informal Rules Environment Research

Feedbacks

Logistics

Understanding System of Analysis - Food Systems Model

Understandin ing the System of Analysis is

Conceptual Model Boundaries

Driv ivers, , Trends and Uncertainties

“Stream Trains” “Black Swans”

Easily perceived drivers and trends that will influence change - direct and indirect Rare and/or unpredictable events that have a big impact

Ris isks and Opportunities

Systemic Risks Transformational Opportunities

Steam Trains Black Swans Systemic Risks Transformational

• pportunities

Scenarios

A description of how the future may unfold according to an explicit, coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces.

Types of scenarios

• Predictive
• Explorative
• Normative

(Backcasting)

Dif ifferent ways of mappin ing scenarios

Scenario Planning Guidance Note Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, (UK) Government Office for Science

Dif ifferent ways of mappin ing scenarios

Scenario Planning Guidance Note Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, (UK) Government Office for Science

Dif ifferent ways of mappin ing scenarios

Scenario Planning Guidance Note Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, (UK) Government Office for Science

Examples of Scenarios

In Influencing Change (Theories of change)

Computational Models ls and Data Sets

IMPACT - The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IFPRI) GLOBIOM - Global Biosphere Management Model (IIASA) MOSAICC - Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (FAO PEM - Policy Evaluation Model (OECD) MAGNET Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool CARPRI - Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis PBL landuse model FAO Stats IFPRI Datasets OECD agricultural Data African Growth and Development Policy modeling consortium (AGRODEP) World Bank Open Data UNdata WHO data repository National Statistics

Models Data Sets

Foresight4Food Key Activity Areas

Existing Scientific Research and Analysis on Food Systems Futures

(International agencies, research institutions, business)

Existing Forums platforms for dialogue and decision making

(eg CFS / G20 / Regional bodies / CGIAR / TempAg National / IPES GLOPAN / EAT / WEF / WBSCD)

Communities of practice Foresight Users Foresight Providers

Foresight4Food

Key activity areas Other / Existing Linkages

Resource portal and dashboard Synthesis and analysis of existing studies Brokering work on emerging issues

Foresight Processe s Foresight Studies

Bridging hub to support foresight processes

1 3 2 4 5

Capacity development

6

Foresight Training Workshop in Nepal

Food system foresight workshops in Ghana and Zambia