[PPT] - Geologic and human time scales: Can we salvage our global PowerPoint Presentation

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Geologic and human time scales:

Can we salvage our global civilization? Tad W. Patzek, ANPERC/KAUST

Science Crossroads Initiative, BESE, Building 3, Rm 5220, 4-5 pm, April 23, 2019

April 27, 2019

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Summary of conclusions

I’ll show you how ephemeral humans are relative to, say, emergence of plants on land I’ll condense geologic time to one year since the beginning of the Silurian, ∼444 million years ago Continued exponential growth of human population is suicidal and will stop one way

r another

I’ll show you roughly how many humans the Earth can carry without major strife and with little depletion of natural resources You may not like the result, but the other choices lead to the war of extinction Humans have only one chance of survival by drastically limiting population and consumption

c TW Patzek, 2019

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The Holocene has ended

David Attenborough tells Davos (01/21/2019): I am quite literally from another age, I was born during the Holocene - the 12,000 [year] period of climatic stability that allowed humans to settle, farm, and create civilisations. That led to trade in ideas and goods, and made us the globally connected species we are today. In the space of my lifetime, all that has changed. The Holocene has ended. The Garden of Eden is no more. We have changed the world so much that scientists say we are in a new geological age: the Anthropocene, the age of humans

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Humans in Perspective

Ronald Wright, A short history of progress, Man is a flame Burning of undergrowth extended grazing lands for game. It is now recognized that many supposedly wild landscapes inhabited down to historic times by hunter-gatherers – the North American prairies and the Australian outback, for instance – were shaped by deliberate fire-setting. “Man,” wrote the great anthropologist and writer Loren Eiseley, “is himself a flame. He has burned through the animal world and appropriated its vast stores of protein for his

wn.” (Page 30)

c TW Patzek, 2019

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The world has been set on fire by us, the fire apes

All fires on the Earth on August 22, 2018

Source: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), accessed 01/13/19

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Net Primary Productivity of North vs. South

It is 3-4 times easier to live off the land in the tropics!

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Median NPP, gC/m

2−year

Asia Pacific South America North America Europe

The robust median NPP estimates are 1200 gC m−2 yr−1 for AP , 740 for SA, 280 for NA and 200 for Europe Source: MOD17A2/A3 model c TW Patzek, 2019

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Humans in geologic time

c TW Patzek, 2019

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The true depth of geologic time

Wikipedia, accessed, Jan 13, 2019

...

c TW Patzek, 2019

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The most successful colonies of single-cell cyanobacteria

They lived on Earth for 3.5 - 3.7(?) billion years

Stromatolites in the Shark Bay, Western Australia. Source: Wikipedia, accessed 01/20/2019

c TW Patzek, 2019

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The most successful colonies of single-cell cyanobacteria

They lived on Earth for 3.5 - 3.7(?) billion years

Stromatolites in the Shark Bay, Western Australia. Source: Wikipedia, accessed 01/20/2019 The oldest fossil stromatolites dated to the 3.5 GA old Dresser Formation of the Pilbara craton in Western Australia

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Geologic time condensed to one year since the beginning of the Silurian

I’m late, I’m late, I’m late...

1 year = 444 million years Last month = 37 million years (Eocene) Last day = 1.2 million years (Pleistocene) Last 90 minutes = 76,000 years (Pleistocene) Last 20 seconds = 280 years (Holocene) 1 minute ≈ 843 years; peak of glaciation, 19,000 years ago = 23 minutes before midnight

Wes Jackson, New Root of Agriculture, 1980

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Time since Earth formed 4.6 billion years ago

Time rescaled so that the last 444 million years = 1 year

Fire ball Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Hadean Archean Proterozoic Phanerozoic Our rescaled year since the Silurian The Cambrian and Ordovician = 541 Mabp Life Photosynthesis Present = 10 years and 3 months 4540 Mabp 4000 Mabp 2500 Mabp C.R. Nave, Georgia State U.

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Geologic epochs during the rescaled year since the Silurian

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Silurian Devonian Mississippian Pennsylvanian Permian Triassic Jurrasic Cretaceous Paleocene Eocene Oligocene Miocene

Pliocene Pleistocene Holocene

Primitive land plants, later modern connifers Amphibians Dinasaurs and Birds Mammals

Flowering plants

Source: Wikipedia, accessed, Jan 13, 2019

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Geologic time since the Silurian reduced to 1 year

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The earliest land plants are leafless vascular plants, psilophytes Club mosses, horsetails, forest trees (Cordaites), and ferns Ferns and conifers in cooler air Ferns, cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers flourish Cycads/cycadeoides dominate; conifers/gingkoes widespread Early flowering plants (angiosperms), modern trees Dinosaurs die Mammals spread to all continents Grasslands expand, forest regions diminish Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Australopithecines develop Making of topsoil, coal, crude oil, and natural gas

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Geologic time since the Silurian reduced to 1 year

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The earliest land plants are leafless vascular plants, psilophytes Club mosses, horsetails, forest trees (Cordaites), and ferns Ferns and conifers in cooler air Ferns, cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers flourish Cycads/cycadeoides dominate; conifers/gingkoes widespread Early flowering plants (angiosperms), modern trees Dinosaurs die Mammals spread to all continents Grasslands expand, forest regions diminish Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Australopithecines develop Making of topsoil, coal, crude oil, and natural gas The oldest live oil seep out of a dolomitic mudrock is 1.64 giga annum (Ga) old

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Geologic time since the Silurian reduced to 1 year

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The earliest land plants are leafless vascular plants, psilophytes Club mosses, horsetails, forest trees (Cordaites), and ferns Ferns and conifers in cooler air Ferns, cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers flourish Cycads/cycadeoides dominate; conifers/gingkoes widespread Early flowering plants (angiosperms), modern trees Dinosaurs die Mammals spread to all continents Grasslands expand, forest regions diminish Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Australopithecines develop Making of topsoil, coal, crude oil, and natural gas The oldest live oil seep out of a dolomitic mudrock is 1.64 giga annum (Ga) old Silurian landscape, artwork by Richard Bizley

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Geologic time since the Silurian reduced to 1 year

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The earliest land plants are leafless vascular plants, psilophytes Club mosses, horsetails, forest trees (Cordaites), and ferns Ferns and conifers in cooler air Ferns, cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers flourish Cycads/cycadeoides dominate; conifers/gingkoes widespread Early flowering plants (angiosperms), modern trees Dinosaurs die Mammals spread to all continents Grasslands expand, forest regions diminish Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Australopithecines develop Making of topsoil, coal, crude oil, and natural gas The oldest live oil seep out of a dolomitic mudrock is 1.64 giga annum (Ga) old Silurian landscape, artwork by Richard Bizley Cordaites - extinct gymnosperms which grew on wet ground - Upper Carboniferous

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Geologic time since the Silurian reduced to 1 year

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The earliest land plants are leafless vascular plants, psilophytes Club mosses, horsetails, forest trees (Cordaites), and ferns Ferns and conifers in cooler air Ferns, cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers flourish Cycads/cycadeoides dominate; conifers/gingkoes widespread Early flowering plants (angiosperms), modern trees Dinosaurs die Mammals spread to all continents Grasslands expand, forest regions diminish Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Australopithecines develop Making of topsoil, coal, crude oil, and natural gas The oldest live oil seep out of a dolomitic mudrock is 1.64 giga annum (Ga) old Silurian landscape, artwork by Richard Bizley Cordaites - extinct gymnosperms which grew on wet ground - Upper Carboniferous Fossilized Gingkoe leaves - Lower Jurrasic

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Geologic time since the Silurian reduced to 1 year

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The earliest land plants are leafless vascular plants, psilophytes Club mosses, horsetails, forest trees (Cordaites), and ferns Ferns and conifers in cooler air Ferns, cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers flourish Cycads/cycadeoides dominate; conifers/gingkoes widespread Early flowering plants (angiosperms), modern trees Dinosaurs die Mammals spread to all continents Grasslands expand, forest regions diminish Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Australopithecines develop Making of topsoil, coal, crude oil, and natural gas The oldest live oil seep out of a dolomitic mudrock is 1.64 giga annum (Ga) old Silurian landscape, artwork by Richard Bizley Cordaites - extinct gymnosperms which grew on wet ground - Upper Carboniferous Fossilized Gingkoe leaves - Lower Jurrasic Cycadeoidea gigantea plant during the Jurassic

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Geologic time since the Silurian reduced to 1 year

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The earliest land plants are leafless vascular plants, psilophytes Club mosses, horsetails, forest trees (Cordaites), and ferns Ferns and conifers in cooler air Ferns, cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers flourish Cycads/cycadeoides dominate; conifers/gingkoes widespread Early flowering plants (angiosperms), modern trees Dinosaurs die Mammals spread to all continents Grasslands expand, forest regions diminish Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Australopithecines develop Making of topsoil, coal, crude oil, and natural gas The oldest live oil seep out of a dolomitic mudrock is 1.64 giga annum (Ga) old Silurian landscape, artwork by Richard Bizley Cordaites - extinct gymnosperms which grew on wet ground - Upper Carboniferous Fossilized Gingkoe leaves - Lower Jurrasic Cycadeoidea gigantea plant during the Jurassic Gymnospermae - naked seeds - Devonian to present

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Geologic time since the Silurian reduced to 1 year

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The earliest land plants are leafless vascular plants, psilophytes Club mosses, horsetails, forest trees (Cordaites), and ferns Ferns and conifers in cooler air Ferns, cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers flourish Cycads/cycadeoides dominate; conifers/gingkoes widespread Early flowering plants (angiosperms), modern trees Dinosaurs die Mammals spread to all continents Grasslands expand, forest regions diminish Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Australopithecines develop Making of topsoil, coal, crude oil, and natural gas The oldest live oil seep out of a dolomitic mudrock is 1.64 giga annum (Ga) old Silurian landscape, artwork by Richard Bizley Cordaites - extinct gymnosperms which grew on wet ground - Upper Carboniferous Fossilized Gingkoe leaves - Lower Jurrasic Cycadeoidea gigantea plant during the Jurassic Gymnospermae - naked seeds - Devonian to present Ancient flowering plants 200 Ma to present; oldest preserved date to Cretaceous

c TW Patzek, 2019

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December = 37 million years (early Eocene)

1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Early primates appear in North America Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Miocene warming begins Antarctic ice sheet approaches its present-day size and thickness Australopithecines develop in Africa Great Ice Age begins Oldest human species, Homo habilis develop Human civilization develops

c TW Patzek, 2019

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December = 37 million years (early Eocene)

1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Early primates appear in North America Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Miocene warming begins Antarctic ice sheet approaches its present-day size and thickness Australopithecines develop in Africa Great Ice Age begins Oldest human species, Homo habilis develop Human civilization develops 55 Ma Paleocene-Eocene boundary = hot Earth

c TW Patzek, 2019

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December = 37 million years (early Eocene)

1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Early primates appear in North America Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Miocene warming begins Antarctic ice sheet approaches its present-day size and thickness Australopithecines develop in Africa Great Ice Age begins Oldest human species, Homo habilis develop Human civilization develops 55 Ma Paleocene-Eocene boundary = hot Earth Eocene fauna

c TW Patzek, 2019

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December = 37 million years (early Eocene)

1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Early primates appear in North America Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Miocene warming begins Antarctic ice sheet approaches its present-day size and thickness Australopithecines develop in Africa Great Ice Age begins Oldest human species, Homo habilis develop Human civilization develops 55 Ma Paleocene-Eocene boundary = hot Earth Eocene fauna Homo habilis, a species during early Calabrian stages of the Pleistocene, 2.1-1.5 Ma

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last day of December = 1.2 million years (Pleistocene)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Common genetic ancestor of humans and Neanderthal Homo heidelbergensis left footprints in powdery volcanic ash Omo river, Ethiopia, the earliest Homo sapiens Female ancestor common to all lineages in humans alive today Anatomically modern Homo sapiens appears in Africa Human civilization develops, glaciers retreat

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last day of December = 1.2 million years (Pleistocene)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Common genetic ancestor of humans and Neanderthal Homo heidelbergensis left footprints in powdery volcanic ash Omo river, Ethiopia, the earliest Homo sapiens Female ancestor common to all lineages in humans alive today Anatomically modern Homo sapiens appears in Africa Human civilization develops, glaciers retreat Human evolution over the last 3.9 Ma (3 days)

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last day of December = 1.2 million years (Pleistocene)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Common genetic ancestor of humans and Neanderthal Homo heidelbergensis left footprints in powdery volcanic ash Omo river, Ethiopia, the earliest Homo sapiens Female ancestor common to all lineages in humans alive today Anatomically modern Homo sapiens appears in Africa Human civilization develops, glaciers retreat Human evolution over the last 3.9 Ma (3 days) Home homoheilderbergensis footprints in volcanic ash

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last day of December = 1.2 million years (Pleistocene)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Common genetic ancestor of humans and Neanderthal Homo heidelbergensis left footprints in powdery volcanic ash Omo river, Ethiopia, the earliest Homo sapiens Female ancestor common to all lineages in humans alive today Anatomically modern Homo sapiens appears in Africa Human civilization develops, glaciers retreat Human evolution over the last 3.9 Ma (3 days) Home homoheilderbergensis footprints in volcanic ash Neanderthals are a subspecies of humans 600,000 years (1/2 day) old

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last day of December = 1.2 million years (Pleistocene)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Common genetic ancestor of humans and Neanderthal Homo heidelbergensis left footprints in powdery volcanic ash Omo river, Ethiopia, the earliest Homo sapiens Female ancestor common to all lineages in humans alive today Anatomically modern Homo sapiens appears in Africa Human civilization develops, glaciers retreat Human evolution over the last 3.9 Ma (3 days) Home homoheilderbergensis footprints in volcanic ash Neanderthals are a subspecies of humans 600,000 years (1/2 day) old Northern Glaciation from 2.58 Ma to present, sea level dropped by up to 120 m

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last 90 minutes of December = 76,000 years (Pleistocene)

90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Most recent ancestor from whom all male human Y-chromosomes come Modern humans expand from Asia to Australia and Europe Modern humans enter North America from Siberia Neanderthals die out Humans reach across South America Earliest evidence of human culture in Mesopotamia (5000 BC) Egyptian civilization (3500 - 0 BC) Greek civilization (1000 BC - 100 BC)

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last 90 minutes of December = 76,000 years (Pleistocene)

90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Most recent ancestor from whom all male human Y-chromosomes come Modern humans expand from Asia to Australia and Europe Modern humans enter North America from Siberia Neanderthals die out Humans reach across South America Earliest evidence of human culture in Mesopotamia (5000 BC) Egyptian civilization (3500 - 0 BC) Greek civilization (1000 BC - 100 BC) Oldest known human towns ∼10 ka

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last 90 minutes of December = 76,000 years (Pleistocene)

90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Most recent ancestor from whom all male human Y-chromosomes come Modern humans expand from Asia to Australia and Europe Modern humans enter North America from Siberia Neanderthals die out Humans reach across South America Earliest evidence of human culture in Mesopotamia (5000 BC) Egyptian civilization (3500 - 0 BC) Greek civilization (1000 BC - 100 BC) Oldest known human towns ∼10 ka Oldest Egyptian pyramids are dated 2630 BC-2611 BC (during the third dynasty)

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last 90 minutes of December = 76,000 years (Pleistocene)

90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Most recent ancestor from whom all male human Y-chromosomes come Modern humans expand from Asia to Australia and Europe Modern humans enter North America from Siberia Neanderthals die out Humans reach across South America Earliest evidence of human culture in Mesopotamia (5000 BC) Egyptian civilization (3500 - 0 BC) Greek civilization (1000 BC - 100 BC) Oldest known human towns ∼10 ka Oldest Egyptian pyramids are dated 2630 BC-2611 BC (during the third dynasty) The safest general characterisation of the European philosophical tradition is that it consists of a series of footnotes to Plato, Alfred North Whitehead, Process and Reality, 1929

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last 20 seconds of December = 280 years (Holocene)

20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

World population = 6 billion (1999) 1/2 of cropland topsoil eroded in US? 1/2 of US oil produced (1970) Atom bomb in Hiroshima World population = 2 billion Haber-Bosch process commercial (1920) Mass oil and automobile production starts in US (1890) Oil discovered in Pennsylvania (1859) US prairies plowed (1850) World population = 1 billion Declaration of Independence Watt’s steam engine (1765)

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last 20 seconds of December = 280 years (Holocene)

20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

World population = 6 billion (1999) 1/2 of cropland topsoil eroded in US? 1/2 of US oil produced (1970) Atom bomb in Hiroshima World population = 2 billion Haber-Bosch process commercial (1920) Mass oil and automobile production starts in US (1890) Oil discovered in Pennsylvania (1859) US prairies plowed (1850) World population = 1 billion Declaration of Independence Watt’s steam engine (1765) James Watt improved on the Newcomen steam engine in 1765 and 1781

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last 20 seconds of December = 280 years (Holocene)

20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

World population = 6 billion (1999) 1/2 of cropland topsoil eroded in US? 1/2 of US oil produced (1970) Atom bomb in Hiroshima World population = 2 billion Haber-Bosch process commercial (1920) Mass oil and automobile production starts in US (1890) Oil discovered in Pennsylvania (1859) US prairies plowed (1850) World population = 1 billion Declaration of Independence Watt’s steam engine (1765) James Watt improved on the Newcomen steam engine in 1765 and 1781 US Declaration of Independence, July 4, 1776

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last 20 seconds of December = 280 years (Holocene)

20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

World population = 6 billion (1999) 1/2 of cropland topsoil eroded in US? 1/2 of US oil produced (1970) Atom bomb in Hiroshima World population = 2 billion Haber-Bosch process commercial (1920) Mass oil and automobile production starts in US (1890) Oil discovered in Pennsylvania (1859) US prairies plowed (1850) World population = 1 billion Declaration of Independence Watt’s steam engine (1765) James Watt improved on the Newcomen steam engine in 1765 and 1781 US Declaration of Independence, July 4, 1776 Karl Benz produced his first cars by 1885

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Last 20 seconds of December = 280 years (Holocene)

20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

World population = 6 billion (1999) 1/2 of cropland topsoil eroded in US? 1/2 of US oil produced (1970) Atom bomb in Hiroshima World population = 2 billion Haber-Bosch process commercial (1920) Mass oil and automobile production starts in US (1890) Oil discovered in Pennsylvania (1859) US prairies plowed (1850) World population = 1 billion Declaration of Independence Watt’s steam engine (1765) James Watt improved on the Newcomen steam engine in 1765 and 1781 US Declaration of Independence, July 4, 1776 Karl Benz produced his first cars by 1885 US dropped two atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki on August 6 and 9, 1945. These bombs killed at least 129,000 people.

c TW Patzek, 2019

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. . . And this is our global fossil fuel-powered civilization

Duration: 30, perhaps 35 seconds on this time scale

Source: Patzek’s estimates, Jan 14, 2019

c TW Patzek, 2019

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We only have one shot at the global civilization Then it is over

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Exponential growth

David Attenborough warned the Davos space aliens (01/21/2019): [Economic] growth is going to come to an end, either suddenly or in a controlled way. Anyone who thinks you can have infinite growth in finite circumstances is either a madman or an economist

c TW Patzek, 2019

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My main points

On too many human households

Humans are resilient reproducers and the world is in accelerating overshoot using more self-producing resources and waste assimilation capacity than ecosystems can regenerate and provide each year Growth of human population and economy is being subsidized through the liquidation of essential biological assets (ozone layer, drinking water, soils, fish-stocks, biodiversity, etc.) and the over-filling of the global carbon sink (atmosphere, land, oceans, etc.) These environmental subsidies of the overshoot can last only as long as a critical asset in least supply None of this is captured in the economic models of the world

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Exponential growth

Remember the single lily pad floating on a big empty pond? She divided/doubled every day and in 20 days covered the whole pond. On day 20, lilies ran out of their environment and perished

Here is the entire 20-day history of the lily pad species: 20 = 1, 21, 22, . . . , 218 = 262144, 219 = 524288, 220 = 1048576 Question: On what day was the pond only half-covered? You all know that it was on day

19. On that day 95% of the lily pad history was over, but

From the lily pad species’ perspective, the pond was still half-empty and there was plenty

f room to grow

This is how most people and economists perceive availability of resources

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Exponential growth of lily pads

On day 19, half of the pond was empty and after day 20 they were all extinct

Example by Dr. William Rees, 12/25/16

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Exponential growth of human population

A 10,000 strong population of ancient Homo Sapiens 250,000 years ago will be 10 billion people in 2070 after 20

doublings. There will not be the 21st doubling

Data from Rex Weyler, 2011

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Years needed to add another one billion people

Every 17 years we add population equal to that of China in 2014

Sources: UN, Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, accessed 12/29/16

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Population of Saudi Arabia

Estimated to peak at 48 million people 1950 2000 2050 2100 10 20 30 40 50

Millions of people

Historical level of population

UN WPP 2015 (medium) Saudi census Sources: UN, Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, accessed 12/29/16

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Years needed to add another four million people

Every 6 years we add the 2015 population of Riyadh 1950 2000 2050 2100 Years to add 4 more million people 10 20 30 40 50 Millions of people

24 9 6 7 7 6 6 7 10 11 17

Historical level of population

Sources: UN, Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, accessed 12/29/16

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Population of Egypt

Estimated to peak at 250 million people: An ecological catastrophe 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 50 100 150 200

Population, millions

Historical level of population

www.populstat.info/Africa/egyptp.htm UN GPP 2015 (medium) Sources: Various, UN, Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, accessed 12/29/16

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Population of China

Estimated to peak at 1.4 billion people in 2030

500 1000 1500 2000 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

2-60 145-50 606-46 755-53 1014-54 1103-123 1291-60 1393-60 1749-177 1791-303 1811-357 1851-430 1950-563 Han Han Sui Tang Song Song Yuan Ming Qing Qing Qing Qing Mao

Vaclav Smil (1993) US Census Bureau King's Diary (1911) Sources: Various, UN, Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, accessed 12/29/16

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Population of India

Estimated to peak at 1.6 billion people in 2050

500 1000 1500 2000 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Average of estimates Censuses since 1871 Green revolution=fertilizer Sources: Wikipedia, UN, Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, accessed 09/30/17

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Global human population

Estimated 7.7 billion in early 2019; perhaps 2.5 billion people could be sustained with renewables and some fossils

Sources: UN, Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, accessed 12/29/16

c TW Patzek, 2019

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2.5 billion people might live on the Earth, but. . .

This would require the 1800s life expectancy, lifestyle, slavery, and conflicts Average life expectancy in the 1800s was 32 years and in 2015 it was 71 years 2.5 × 32/71 = 1.1 billion people at today’s life expectancy World GDP per capita was 605 PPP 1990 USD in 1800, vs. 7890 in 2010 (the factor

f 13). Discounting the silly economics replacing environmental services, the real

standard of living only, say, doubled, and we are down to 500 million people Organic agriculture could feed sustainably 4 times more or 2 billion people But we do not want to have wars and strife, so the final result is ∼1 billion people We have overshot by a factor of 8 by using fossil fuel subsidies

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Exosomatic power use per capita

Power use metric Power ratio 1850 average global citizen 1.0 2016 average global citizen 9.2 Average 2016 American vs 1850 global average 36.0 1 US = 12 billion

f 1850 people

Average 2016 American vs 2016 global average 3.9 Toe per capita, 2016 global average 1.9 Barrels oil equivalent per metric ton 7.3 Barrels of oil equivalent per person in 1850 1.5 Boe per average world citizen in 2016 13.9 Barrels of oil equivalent per American in 2016 54.3

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Population drives use of primary power

Over 180 years, there has been a one-to-one correspondence

Sources: UN, Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, accessed 12/29/16

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Population drives use of primary power

Over 180 years, there has been a one-to-one correspondence

Sources: UN, Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, accessed 12/29/16

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Sixty years ago. . .

Key West trophies, 1956

McClenachan Conservation Biology 2007

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Thirty years ago. . .

Key West trophies, 1980

McClenachan Conservation Biology 2007

c TW Patzek, 2019

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. . . A decade ago

Key West trophies, 2007

McClenachan Conservation Biology 2007

c TW Patzek, 2019

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. . . And now

Thousands of Chinese trawlers head out to sea after three-month ban on fishing is lifted

The Oceans been Eaten to Extinction, Simon Tomlinson for MailOnline 19 Sep 2014

c TW Patzek, 2019

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Accumulated living people eat ever more fish

Fish consumption has caught up with population, just in time to collapse all fisheries

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Cumulative fish production Accumulated global population Visit the incredible fishing database at www.seaaroundus.org, accessed 10/09/17

c TW Patzek, 2019

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39/55

Accumulated living people eat ever more fish

Fish consumption has caught up with population, just in time to collapse all fisheries

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Cumulative fish production Accumulated global population Visit the incredible fishing database at www.seaaroundus.org, accessed 10/09/17

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 c TW Patzek, 2019

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40/55