I I know ow when en to hed edge ge! ! Us Usin ing g analytic - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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I I know ow when en to hed edge ge! ! Us Usin ing g analytic - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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I I know ow when en to hed edge ge! ! Us Usin ing g analytic lytics Pri rice e analy alysis sis and d fore recas cast t for r Salmo mon Tom m Bundg ndgaa aard Kairos Commodities www.kairoscommodities.com

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www.kairoscommodities.com

I I know

  • w when

en to hed edge ge! ! Us Usin ing g analytic lytics

Pri rice e analy alysis sis and d fore recas cast t for r Salmo mon

Tom m Bundg ndgaa aard Kairos Commodities www.kairoscommodities.com tb@kairoscommodities.com May 2019

Tom Bundgaard Chief Analyst MSTA, MFTA

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Our mission

Market analysis Clear forecasts Concrete hedging recommendations

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Price volatility

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Macro economy Technical analysis Fundamental analysis

Our analytical model

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Our analytical model

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Our analytical model

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Regression

”Fair value for salmon”

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1. Bubble/anti-bubble 2. Trend

Regression

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1. Bubble/anti-bubble 2. Trend

Regression

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1. Bubble/anti-bubble 2. Trend

Regression

9m 5m 3m

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Conclusion:

  • 1. The fair band is turning down
  • 2. Prices are in a bubble

Regression

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Macro economy Technical analysis

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Technical analysis

”46-49 NOK Q3/19” ”55-65 NOK Q1/20” ”63-67 NOK April 2019” Anticipations versus Signals

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Technical analysis

Anticipations versus Signals

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Technical analysis

Anticipations versus Signals

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Macro economy

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Macro economy

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  • 3. Financial
  • 2. Physical
  • 1. Contractual
  • 4. Structural hedging

(customer prices, internal budget etc.)

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Technical analysis

Anticipations versus Signals Uptrend Downtrend

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Hedging

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Our mission

Market analysis Clear forecasts Concrete hedging recommendations

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I hope you got some inspiration !

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www.kairoscommodities.com Tom Bundgaard, Chief Analyst tb@kairoscommodities.com

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The views expressed in this research accurately reflects the personal views of the analyst, and this research has been prepared for the general use of the clients of Kairos and must not be copied, either in whole or in

  • part. Nothing in this research shall be construed as

solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. In preparing this research , we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of the reader. Before making an investment decision based on this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular needs, objectives and financial

  • circumstances. There are always risks involved in

trading and securities. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. Opinions expressed are subject to change without

  • notice. No member of Kairos or DILF accepts any

liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research.

Disclaimer

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Our core offering

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Marke ket t intellige lligence nce

Marke ket intelligen ence ce Access essible St Strong credibility

Core business is in-depth market analysis, including advanced regression analyses and technical analyses Forecasting with price targets, risk mitigation recommendations and supporting tools Explicit and accurate recommendations Online platform service Uniform analytical approach on all commodities Frequent updates Notification service with weekly walkthroughs Retention rate of clients exceeds 95% Perceived as trusted advisor by the majority of clients Clients ranging from some of the world largest companies to SMEs, including retailers, wholesalers and manufacturing

St Strong credib dibilit lity Accessible ible