Land-use modeling with IMAGE 2 EMF-22, December 13, 2006 Tsukuba, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Land-use modeling with IMAGE 2 EMF-22, December 13, 2006 Tsukuba, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Tom Kram, Bas Eickhout Land-use modeling with IMAGE 2 EMF-22, December 13, 2006 Tsukuba, Japan Contents Coordinated baseline: Millennium Ecosystem Assessments Adapting Mosaic (AM) IMAGE 2.2 in conjunction with IFPRIs IMPACT

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Land-use modeling with IMAGE 2

EMF-22, December 13, 2006 Tsukuba, Japan

Tom Kram, Bas Eickhout

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 2

Contents

  • Coordinated baseline: Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment’s Adapting Mosaic (AM)

– IMAGE 2.2 in conjunction with IFPRI’s IMPACT model – Variations of coordinated baseline: CC feedback

  • New IMAGE 2.4 baseline

– Coupled with LEITAP – Sensitivity cases: crop yield assumptions

  • Future plans:

– Bioenergy: GTAP-E – Dynamic climate/vegetation/crop growth (not today!)

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 3

Model structure in MA

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 4

Coordinated baseline: energy use

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 5

Regionally: South America versus China

More modern bioenergy in South America More coal in China

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 6

Agricultural production from IFPRI: animal products

Note: large increase in dairy products

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 7

Agricultural production from IFPRI: food crops

Stronger growth in feed crops like maize and oil crops

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 8

Land-use change

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 9

Land-use change regionally

South America versus China: most increases in China already achieved. Regions where expansion is to be expected are South America and Africa.

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 10

Changes in emissions largely driven by energy

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 11

But land-use emissions also increase (Methane: mainly animals and landfills)

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 12

And for Nitrous oxide: fertilizer use

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 13

EMF22-LU: Co-ordinated baseline

  • These were results from Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment

  • IMAGE 2.2 includes several feedbacks
  • What is the importance of CO2, climate and no

feedbacks?

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 14

Land-use changes

Black: baseline Blue: no feedback at all Green: no climate feedback Red: no CO2 feedback

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 15

Change in yields

Temperate cereals versus maize:

  • cereals affected by climate -- maize hardly
  • both impacted by CO2 fertilization
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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 16

Consequences for CO2 uptake

  • CO2 uptake collapses in absence of CO2 fertilization
  • Temperature effect seems small.
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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 17

NPP constant without feedbacks (especially when no CO2 fertilization effect is assumed)

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 18

Regionally different results

  • CO2 fertilization always increases NPP
  • Climate effect can work in two directions:

– Boreal: climate and CO2 have comparable effect (left) – Tropical: NPP is higher without climate feedback (right)

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 19

CO2 concentration: big fertilization effect; hardly a net climate effect

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 20

Temperature increase: no CO2 fertilization leads to larger temperature increase

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 21

IMAGE 2.4

  • Release of IMAGE 2.4 book
  • Update of base year to 2000
  • 24 regions
  • More environmental impacts

(nitrogen deposition, biodiversity)

  • Linking IMAGE with LEITAP
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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 22

Linking IMAGE and LEITAP

  • Endogenizing land supply within LEITAP

– Availability of land – Quality of land

  • Including environmental feedbacks into LEITAP

– CC effects on crop productivity

  • Accounting for intensive livestock production

– Use of grass/fodder and foodcrops

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 23

Taking environmental feedbacks into account

Source: Eickhout et al., in press

economic policy global technical progress social development consumption pattern international cooperation sectoral technical progress production, yield, mana- feed gement factor conversion Land use and environmental development (IMAGE) World Vision (four scenarios story lines) Population growth Economic growth Demand on and trade in agricultural products (GTAP)

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 24

Estimation results of the land supply curve

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 300000 1300000 2300000 3300000 4300000 5300000 6300000 L r data estm ated curve 2001 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 300000 1300000 2300000 3300000 4300000 5300000 6300000 L r data estim ated curv e 2001

Land supply curve for : land used (%) r R square Canada 8.8 3.4 0.97 China 73.0 16.0 0.99

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 25

IMAGE 2.4 baseline

  • Population: UN Medium
  • OECD economic scenario (ENV-Linkages)
  • Convergence in labour participation and

productivity -> growth rates

  • No new policies assumed
  • Range of environmental impacts: CC, air quality,

land cover, nutrient loading, N-deposition, water stress, risk of erosion, biodiversity

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 26

GDP per capita

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 27

Energy use

Primary Energy Intensity

5 10 15 20 25 30 1970 1990 2010 2030 MJ/$ppp

OECD BRIC Rest of World

T ota l Prima ry Ene rgy 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1970 1990 2010 2030 EJ OECD BRIC RoW

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 28

CO2 emissions from energy

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 29

Crop production

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 30

Animal production (more poultry)

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 31

Land-use

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 32

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 33

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 34

Sensitivity: increasing / decreasing yields ..

Blue: central assumption Black: 2x yield increase rate Red: 0.5x yield increase rate

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 35

.. have a big effect on foodcrop area

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 36

.. on CO2 concentration

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 37

… and mean global surface temperature

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 38

Future plans

  • Work of LEITAP (Martin Banse and Hans van

Meijl) on including bio-energy production coupled with IMAGE/TIMER

  • Dynamic climate (SPEEDY), vegetation (LPJ) and

crop growth (LPJ-ml/Lintul) – not today!

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Electric σENER Non-electric Coal σNELY Gas σNCOL Petroleum products Oil Non-coal Capital-Energy Capital Energy σKE

Figure: GTAP-E: Capital-Energy Composite

3.1) Modeling Biofuels in LEITAP: Approach

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Diesel & gasoline σPETRO Ethanol

Where is the Bio-fuel?

Gas σNCOL Fuel Non-coal Veget.

  • il

σDIES Petroleum products Oil σETHAN Sugar Grain Forestry

3.1) Modeling Biofuels in LEITAP: Approach

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Bas Eickhout, Land-use modeling with IMAGE 41

Thank you for your attention

www.mnp.nl/en

  • r

www.mnp.nl/image