MAY FIVE-YEAR FORECAST UPDATE MAY 23, 2018 Introduction The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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MAY FIVE-YEAR FORECAST UPDATE MAY 23, 2018 Introduction The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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MAY FIVE-YEAR FORECAST UPDATE MAY 23, 2018 Introduction The five-year operating budget forecast is required by the state to be adopted by the Board twice per yearOctober and May Levies that are not already passed by the voters cannot

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SLIDE 1

MAY FIVE-YEAR FORECAST UPDATE

MAY 23, 2018

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SLIDE 2

Introduction

  • The five-year operating budget forecast is required by the state to be adopted

by the Board twice per year—October and May

  • Levies that are not already passed by the voters cannot be included in the

adopted forecast

  • The Board also reviews the capital budget in May
  • Capital spending levels for the upcoming year are approved as part of the temporary budget

to be adopted in June

2

Granville Exempted Village Schools

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SLIDE 3

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Beginning Balance 4,370,766 4,328,492 3,703,044 3,154,976 1,624,127 + Revenue 29,493,047 28,465,550 29,400,444 29,797,681 30,170,330 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies

  • + Proposed New Levies
  • Expenditures

(29,535,321) (29,090,998) (29,948,512) (31,328,530) (32,706,889) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (42,273) (625,448) (548,068) (1,530,849) (2,536,559) Ending Balance 4,328,492 3,703,044 3,154,976 1,624,127 (912,432)

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Beginning Balance 4,370,766 3,696,672 3,030,751 1,398,416 (1,304,313) + Revenue 28,493,364 28,718,771 29,141,323 29,524,022 29,911,937 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies

  • + Proposed New Levies
  • Expenditures

(29,167,458) (29,384,692) (30,773,657) (32,226,751) (33,668,197) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (674,094) (665,921) (1,632,334) (2,702,729) (3,756,260) Ending Balance 3,696,672 3,030,751 1,398,416 (1,304,313) (5,060,573)

OCTOBER CURRENT

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

2018 and 2019 distorted by nearly $600,000 of accelerated property tax collections.

Impact of the RIFs and health insurance changes reflected in circled numbers

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SLIDE 4

Monthly Cash Flow

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Projected Monthly Cash Flow Board Approved Cash Balance Policy 2,935,795 $

1,294,825 4,328,504 1,396,935 $0 $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 $12,000,000

7.020 - Ending Cash Balance Board Approved Cash Balance Policy

2018 2019

Cash balance on the previous table is as of June 30 each

  • year. Cash balance on

January 31, 2019 is projected to be about $2.9 million lower than on June 30, 2018

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SLIDE 5

Budget Reductions

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Granville Exempted Village Schools

Annual Change Resulting from Modeling Below

  • (389,058)

(61,599) 2018 2019 2020 3.010 - Personnel Services 14,934,781 15,716,328 15,865,413 Modeled Percentage Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Annual Dollar Change from Percentage

  • Other Dollar Amount

$0 ($309,855) $0 Total Annual Amount

  • (309,855)
  • 85%

Current Year Impact

  • (263,377)

(46,478) % of Salaries Impact on Fringe Benefits 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% Memo Only - Fringe Benefit Reduction

  • (43,984)

(7,762) 020 - Employees' Retirement/Insurance Benefits 7,200,076 6,897,019 6,649,011 Modeled Percentage Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Annual Dollar Change from Percentage

  • Other Dollar Amount

$0 ($49,056) $0 Total Annual Amount

  • (49,056)
  • 85%

Current Year Impact

  • (41,698)

(7,358) 3.030 - Purchased Services 4,073,496 4,246,267 4,327,825 Modeled Percentage Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Annual Dollar Change from Percentage

  • Other Dollar Amount

$0 ($40,000) $0 Total Annual Amount

  • (40,000)
  • Total Annual Amount Incurred/Allocated
  • (389,058)

(61,599) Gross Annual Change

  • (442,895)

(7,762)

In addition to the budget reductions, pay-to- participate is anticipated to generate about $175,000 per year. Shifting of convenience fees from Pay-for-It

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SLIDE 6

Granville Exempted Village Schools

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Capital Budget Had Levy Passed Capital Budget, Current FY 2019 FY 2019 Other Technology 115,000 Other Technology 115,000 Staff Computer Replacement 50,000 Staff Computer Replacement 50,000 Other Computer Replacement 187,500 Other Computer Replacement 87,500 Dell Computers 43,420 Dell Computers 43,420 One-to-One 96,600 One-to-One 96,600 Concrete & Asphalt 135,000 Concrete & Asphalt 135,000 Flooring 115,000 Flooring Mechanicals 350,000 Mechanicals 350,000 Projects 160,000 Projects 60,000 Roofs 135,000 Roofs 135,000 Textbooks 75,000 Textbooks Musical Instruments 15,000 Musical Instruments 15,000 Theater Upkeep 12,000 Theater Upkeep 12,000 Furniture 40,000 Furniture General Maintenance 95,500 General Maintenance 95,500 Buses 91,000 Buses 91,000 Security Cameras and Radios/Safety 37,000 Security Cameras and Radios/Safety 37,000 Other Vehicles 49,000 Other Vehicles 32,000 Roof Interest 33,317 Roof Interest 33,317 Fees 24,000 Fees 24,000 Contingency 50,000 Contingency 50,000 Total 1,909,337 Total 1,462,337

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SLIDE 7

Granville Exempted Village Schools

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Real property tax payment acceleration

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SLIDE 8

Granville Exempted Village Schools

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SLIDE 9

Granville Exempted Village Schools

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Head Count Summary/Analysis GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SD 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Prior Year Actual/Estimated Enrollment (October Count) 2,455 2,480 2,485 2,521 2,504 Projected Changes to Prior Year Enrollment Net All-Grade Level Mobility Factor (Change) to Prior Year 70 74 72 73 73 Net Aggregate Manual Adjustments to Mobility Factor 4 New Kindergartners In 159 143 158 142 170 Loss of Seniors from Prior Year

  • 208
  • 212
  • 194
  • 232
  • 202

Net Change in Outgoing and Incoming Pupils

  • 49
  • 69
  • 36
  • 90
  • 32

Current Year Estimated Enrollment (Simulated October Count 2,480 2,485 2,521 2,504 2,545 District Head Count Grade K 159 143 158 142 170 1 169 181 162 180 161 2 192 179 192 172 191 3 176 199 185 199 178 4 191 186 210 195 210 5 179 197 192 216 201 6 186 186 205 199 224 7 198 187 187 206 200 8 195 204 192 192 212 9 202 200 209 197 197 10 230 200 198 207 195 11 191 229 199 197 206 12 212 194 232 202 200 Total Can Differ by Rounding 2,480 2,485 2,521 2,504 2,545 Year-Over-Year Percentage Change 1.02% 0.20% 1.45%

  • 0.67%

1.64%

In October, 2018 headcount was 2,452

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SLIDE 10

Revenue

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Granville Exempted Village Schools

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SLIDE 11

Revenue

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Granville Exempted Village Schools

YOY BOR/Update/Reappraisal Tax Year Agricultural Residential Class II (All) 2009 1.5% 0.2%

  • 0.6%

2010

  • 1.4%

0.1%

  • 1.5%

2011 8.5%

  • 0.6%

1.0% 2012

  • 0.2%
  • 0.6%
  • 8.6%

2013

  • 1.1%

0.0%

  • 0.5%

2014 21.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2015 0.5% 0.0%

  • 0.4%

2016 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 2017

  • 1.3%

14.0% 3.7% 2018

  • 0.2%

0.0%

  • 0.5%

2019

  • 0.2%

0.0%

  • 0.5%

2020 0.5% 6.0% 1.8% 2021

  • 0.2%
  • 0.5%
  • 0.5%

The 14% increase in 2017 valuation, which reflects three years of valuation growth, provides the district with about 1.5% revenue growth (which is 0.5% per year). Property tax rates are reduced to

  • ffset the increase in values.
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SLIDE 12

Revenue

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Granville Exempted Village Schools

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Funding Status

Formula Capped Formula Guarantee Guarantee Guarantee

Formula ADM 2,431.43 2,478.26 2,477.76 2,506.26 2,497.26 2,524.26 State Share Index 31.7% 33.4% 33.4% 32.2% 32.2% 31.2% State Core Funding Per Pupil $1,905 $2,007 $2,010 $1,964 $1,996 $1,966 GUARANTEE Guarantee as % of Foundation Funding 1.3% 0.0% 0.7% # of ADM to come off Guarantee 35.24 0.53 17.88 CAPPED Unfunded Cap as % of Foundation Funding 0.9% # of ADM to drop below Cap 23.29 FORMULA FUNDED: # of ADM to reach Cap 54.35 # of ADM to drop to Guarantee 103.57

ADM is resident students Core funding per pupil from the state is about $2,000. The district in aggregate spends over $12,000 per pupil

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SLIDE 13

Expenditures

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Granville Exempted Village Schools

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SLIDE 14

Expenditures

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Granville Exempted Village Schools

  • Prev. 5-Year

PROJECTED

5-Year

  • Avg. Annual

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

  • Avg. Annual

Change

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Change

Expenditures: 3.010-Salaries 1.52% 5.63% 0.66% 3.39% 3.83% 3.50% 3.40% 3.020-Benefits 4.60% 4.47%

  • 6.43%

4.65% 6.61% 6.80% 3.22% 3.030-Purchased Services 6.68% 3.48% 2.86% 5.94% 4.98% 4.37% 4.32% 3.040-Supplies & Materials 1.00% 3.13% 2.99% 2.91% 2.93% 2.95% 2.98% 3.050-Capital Outlay

  • 2.34%
  • 55.96%

140.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16.81% 3.060-Intergov n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4.010-4.060-Debt 0.00% 60.92%

  • 63.01%
  • 2.27%
  • 2.48%
  • 1.62%
  • 1.69%

4.300-Other Objects 10.50%

  • 3.15%
  • 8.38%

1.77% 1.77% 1.77%

  • 1.25%

4.500-Total Expenditures 2.94% 5.22%

  • 1.68%

4.02% 4.61% 4.40% 3.32%

Impact of the RIF and the restructuring of health insurance. The biggest cost pressures in 2020-2022 are from benefits (health insurance) and purchased services (mandatory spending to meet student needs).

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SLIDE 15

Final Thoughts

  • The overall fiscal challenges have not changed, they have just been

pushed out by one year due to the Reduction-in-Force and the projected implementation of pay-to-participate

  • Capital needs cannot be funded in the longer run without

additional revenue

Granville Exempted Village Schools

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