OCTOBER FIVE-YEAR FORECAST OCTOBER 8, 2018 Fiscal Year Fiscal Year - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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OCTOBER FIVE-YEAR FORECAST OCTOBER 8, 2018 Fiscal Year Fiscal Year - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 07, 2023 396 likes •584 views

OCTOBER FIVE-YEAR FORECAST OCTOBER 8, 2018 Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year OCTOBER 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Beginning Balance 4,124,459 3,586,066 3,160,482 1,723,393 (604,491) + Revenue 28,693,328

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SLIDE 1

OCTOBER FIVE-YEAR FORECAST

OCTOBER 8, 2018

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SLIDE 2

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Beginning Balance 4,124,459 3,586,066 3,160,482 1,723,393 (604,491) + Revenue 28,693,328 29,526,521 29,886,672 30,400,537 30,864,534 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies

  • + Proposed New Levies
  • Expenditures

(29,231,721) (29,952,105) (31,323,761) (32,728,421) (34,217,679) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (538,393) (425,584) (1,437,089) (2,327,884) (3,353,145) Ending Balance 3,586,066 3,160,482 1,723,393 (604,491) (3,957,636)

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Beginning Balance 4,370,766 4,328,492 3,703,044 3,154,976 1,624,127 + Revenue 29,493,047 28,465,550 29,400,444 29,797,681 30,170,330 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies

  • + Proposed New Levies
  • Expenditures

(29,535,321) (29,090,998) (29,948,512) (31,328,530) (32,706,889) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (42,273) (625,448) (548,068) (1,530,849) (2,536,559) Ending Balance 4,328,492 3,703,044 3,154,976 1,624,127 (912,432)

OCTOBER MAY

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

2018 and 2019 distorted by nearly $600,000 of accelerated property tax collections.

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SLIDE 3

10-Year Forecast

3

Granville Exempted Village Schools

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SLIDE 4

10-Year Forecast with Income Tax

4

Granville Exempted Village Schools

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Beginning Balance 4,124,459 3,839,486 5,827,860 7,837,044 9,095,825 9,514,552 9,162,751 7,833,313 5,470,591 2,016,017 + Revenue 28,356,450 28,476,588 28,412,645 28,870,090 29,314,609 29,622,507 29,925,489 30,232,344 30,543,131 30,857,922 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies + Proposed New Levies 290,298 3,463,891 4,920,300 5,117,112 5,321,796 5,534,668 5,756,055 5,986,297 6,225,749 6,474,779

  • Expenditures

(28,931,721) (29,952,105) (31,323,761) (32,728,421) (34,217,679) (35,508,976) (37,010,982) (38,581,364) (40,223,454) (41,940,754) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (284,973) 1,988,374 2,009,184 1,258,781 418,726 (351,801) (1,329,438) (2,362,723) (3,454,574) (4,608,053) Ending Balance 3,839,486 5,827,860 7,837,044 9,095,825 9,514,552 9,162,751 7,833,313 5,470,591 2,016,017 (2,592,036)

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SLIDE 5

Projected Monthly Cash Flow Board Approved Cash Balance Policy 2,865,296 $

$1,508,528 $3,710,710 $842,077 $0 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 $7,000,000 $8,000,000 $9,000,000 $10,000,000

7.020 - Ending Cash Balance Board Approved Cash Balance Policy

2019 2020

Monthly Cash Flow

GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Cash balance on the previous table is as of June 30 each

  • year. Cash balance on

January 31, 2020 is projected to be about $2.9 million lower than on June 30, 2019

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SLIDE 6

Granville Exempted Village Schools

6

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SLIDE 7

Revenue

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Granville Exempted Village Schools

2015 2019 2023 Real Estate ######### ######### ######### PUPP 814,610.00 1,239,902.00 1,408,843.00 Income Tax

  • Unres Aid

6,382,794.00 6,630,614.00 6,848,580.00 Res Aid 52,903.00 116,217.00 116,953.00 Prop Tax Alloc 1,999,304.00 2,035,813.00 2,156,307.00 All Other Rev 570,090.00 995,024.00 943,699.00

Real Estate 63% PUPP 4% Income Tax 0% Unres Aid 24% Res Aid 0% Prop Tax Alloc 7% All Other Rev 2%

2016

Real Estate 62% PUPP 4% Income Tax 0% Unres Aid 23% Res Aid 0% Prop Tax Alloc 7% All Other Rev 4%

2019

Real Estate 63% PUPP 5% Income Tax 0% Unres Aid 22% Res Aid 0% Prop Tax Alloc 7% All Other Rev 3%

2022

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SLIDE 8

Revenue

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Granville Exempted Village Schools

YOY BOR/Update/Reappraisal Tax Year Agricultural Residential Class II (All) 2009 1.5% 0.2%

  • 0.6%

2010

  • 1.4%

0.1%

  • 1.5%

2011 8.5%

  • 0.6%

1.0% 2012

  • 0.2%
  • 0.6%
  • 8.6%

2013

  • 1.1%

0.0%

  • 0.5%

2014 21.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2015 0.5% 0.0%

  • 0.4%

2016 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 2017

  • 1.3%

14.0% 3.7% 2018

  • 0.2%

0.0%

  • 0.5%

2019

  • 0.2%

0.0%

  • 0.5%

2020 0.5% 6.0% 1.8% 2021

  • 0.2%
  • 0.5%
  • 0.5%

The 14% increase in 2017 valuation, which reflects three years of valuation growth, provides the district with about 1.5% revenue growth (which is 0.5% per year). Property tax rates are reduced to

  • ffset the increase in values.
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SLIDE 9

Revenue

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Granville Exempted Village Schools

ADM is resident students Core funding per pupil from the state is about $2,000. The district in aggregate spends over $12,000 per pupil

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Funding Status

Capped Formula Formula Formula Formula Formula

Formula ADM 2,459.58 2,483.82 2,518.81 2,511.36 2,529.41 2,558.27 State Share Index 33.2% 33.2% 32.6% 32.6% 32.0% 32.0% State Core Funding Per Pupil $1,998 $2,001 $1,969 $1,986 $1,966 $1,982 GUARANTEE Guarantee as % of Foundation Funding # of ADM to come off Guarantee CAPPED Unfunded Cap as % of Foundation Funding # of ADM to drop below Cap FORMULA FUNDED: # of ADM to reach Cap 80.39 94.20 75.75 90.12 21.42 # of ADM to drop to Guarantee 101.66 13.82 32.46 16.61 78.03

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SLIDE 10

Change in State Aid Per Pupil, 2009/10 to 2016/17

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3.2% Increase

  • ver 7 years

Granville Exempted Village Schools

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SLIDE 11

Projected State Aid

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3.2% increase over 5 years, almost all in 2023, while enrollment is expected to increase by 3.4%, so per pupil funding is expected to decline slightly

Granville Exempted Village Schools

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SLIDE 12

Revenue For Capital-No New Levy

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Granville Exempted Village Schools

PROJECTED CAPITAL BUDGET TAX REVENUE AND PROJECTED EXPENDITURE NEEDS School *Permanent Capital Park Trails Total Tax Future Capital Year Improvement Levy Maintenance Levy Assessment Revenue Plan Needs 2016/17 $757,789 $172,680 $159,072 $1,089,541 2017/18 $781,305 $180,086 $162,178 $1,123,569 2018/19 $749,660 $171,129 $163,227 $1,084,016 2019/20 $773,100 $84,100 $164,859 $1,022,059 $1,611,363 2020/21 $780,831 $0 $159,208 $940,039 $1,574,075 2021/22 $788,639 $0 $142,900 $931,539 $1,578,348 2022/23 $796,526 $0 $123,429 $919,955 $1,588,011 2023/24 $804,491 $0 $97,663 $902,154 2024/25 $812,536 $0 $70,740 $883,276 * Assumes renewal in 2019.

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SLIDE 13

Expenditures

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Granville Exempted Village Schools

2015 2019 2023 Salaries ######### ######### ######### Benefits 6,136,975.00 7,078,117.00 9,079,917.00 Purch Serv 3,338,223.00 4,462,067.00 5,343,255.00 Supp & Mat 892,761.00 872,330.00 978,380.00 Capital Outlay 60,834.00 30,001.00 30,001.00 Other Exp 586,449.00 504,969.00 510,811.00

Salaries 54% Benefits 27% Purch Serv 14% Supp & Mat 3% Capital Outlay 0% Other Exp 2%

2016

Salaries 55% Benefits 25% Purch Serv 15% Supp & Mat 3% Capital Outlay 0% Other Exp 2%

2019

Salaries 54% Benefits 26% Purch Serv 16% Supp & Mat 3% Capital Outlay 0% Other Exp 1%

2022

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SLIDE 14
  • Prev. 5-Year

PROJECTED 5-Year

  • Avg. Annual

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

  • Avg. Annual

Change 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Change Expenditures: 3.010-Salaries 3.93%

  • 0.10%

3.44% 3.84% 3.50% 3.46% 2.83% 3.020-Benefits 7.60%

  • 6.26%

4.07% 6.58% 7.18% 7.91% 3.90% 3.030-Purchased Services 6.79% 3.28% 5.61% 4.92% 4.31% 3.60% 4.34% 3.040-Supplies & Materials 3.24%

  • 2.47%

2.95% 2.96% 2.78% 2.95% 1.83% 3.050-Capital Outlay

  • 18.91%

249.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 49.81% 3.060-Intergov n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4.010-4.060-Debt 12.18%

  • 63.01%
  • 2.27%
  • 2.48%
  • 1.62%
  • 2.47%
  • 14.37%

4.300-Other Objects

  • 1.66%
  • 7.96%

1.83% 0.68% 1.83% 0.55%

  • 0.61%

4.500-Total Expenditures 5.09%

  • 2.11%

3.86% 4.58% 4.49% 4.55% 3.07%

Expenditures

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Granville Exempted Village Schools

Impact of the RIF and other personnel actions and the restructuring of health insurance. The biggest cost pressures in 2020-2022 are from benefits (health insurance) and purchased services (mandatory spending to meet student needs).

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SLIDE 15

Efficiency Actions

  • Over the past year, 11 staff members have left the district, not including the

reductions made because of the levy failure

  • The annualized cost to the district of the 11 staff members who left was about $596,000
  • The annualized cost to the district for those positions now, four of which were not filled and
  • ne was restructured, is about $318,000, a savings of $277,000

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Granville Exempted Village Schools

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SLIDE 16

Students Per Administrator Compared to Comparable Districts

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This is before the elimination

  • f an Assistant Principal as part
  • f the levy failure reductions

There is currently one administrator for 712 students in the Elementary School and

  • ne for 581 students in the

Intermediate School

Granville Exempted Village Schools

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SLIDE 17

Final Thoughts

  • The overall fiscal challenges have not changed, they have just been

pushed out by one year due to the Reduction-in-Force and the projected implementation of pay-to-participate

  • Capital needs cannot be funded in the longer run without additional

revenue

  • Failure to pass a levy by the end of this school year will require the

district to act not only on the $400,000 operating deficit projected for next year but also on the $1.4 million deficit for the 2020/2021 school year.

Granville Exempted Village Schools

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