Modelling impacts of climate change on Australias forests and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Modelling impacts of climate change on Australias forests and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 31, 2023 155 likes •287 views

Modelling impacts of climate change on Australias forests and forestry Part I: Matthew Miller Greenhouse 2011, 4 8 April 2011, Cairns www.abares.gov.au Project Aim and Objective Aim Model the biophysical impacts of the expected

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www.abares.gov.au

Modelling impacts of climate change on Australia’s forests and forestry

Part I: Matthew Miller Greenhouse 2011, 4 – 8 April 2011, Cairns

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www.abares.gov.au

Project Aim and Objective

Aim

  • Model the biophysical impacts of the expected changes in

climate on production forests and forestry across Australia

  • to understand future wood yields, economic impacts and

identify which communities exhibit the greatest vulnerability to climate change.

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www.abares.gov.au

Challenges

  • Further global warming likely this century
  • Changes to Australia’s annual rainfall also likely
  • Impact on forestry sector likely to vary by region

Time-series (1850–2007) of annual global mean surface temperature anomalies Best estimate (50th percentile) of % projected rainfall change for 2030, 2050 and 2070 relative to 1990 under three emissions scenario.

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www.abares.gov.au

Forest regions and tree species

Eucalyptus globulus

  • E. grandis

Pinus caribaea

  • P. pinaster
  • P. radiata

Corymbia maculata

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www.abares.gov.au

Climate and forest growth methods

  • Projections from all available General Circulation Models
  • A1B and A2 emission scenarios
  • Downscaled monthly climate surfaces (CSIRO)
  • Regional forest growth projections
  • 2005 baseline
  • 2030 and 2050
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www.abares.gov.au

Tree growth projections

  • 3-PG spatial model
  • Calculated Mean Annual Increments from each species across

each study region

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www.abares.gov.au

Modelling impacts of climate change on Australia’s forests and forestry

Part II: Kevin Burns Greenhouse 2011, 4 – 8 April 2011, Cairns

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www.abares.gov.au

Project overview

  • Climate

(including temperature and rainfall)

Climate

  • Forest

growth rates

Forest

  • Value of

production

  • Employment

Economics

  • Vulnerability

Social

GCMs 3PG FORUM

IPCC Socio- economic risk Framework

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Economic modelling framework: FORUM

  • Location
  • Species
  • Log volume
  • Harvest costs
  • Distance
  • Haulage costs
  • Location
  • Type
  • Capacity
  • Recovery rate
  • Mill costs
  • Labour
  • Distance
  • Haulage costs
  • Location
  • Prices

Kieran Lewis, FPQ ABARES ABARES

Forest Mill Market

Mill options: Larger scale HW sawmills (native and plantation), Larger scale SW sawmills, LVL mills, Hardboard mills, Bioenergy mills, Woodchip mills

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www.abares.gov.au

Project overview

  • Climate

(including temperature and rainfall)

Climate

  • Forest

growth rates

Forest

  • Value of forests
  • Volume & value
  • f production
  • Investment
  • Employment

Economics

  • Vulnerability

Social

GCMs 3PG FORUM

IPCC Socio- economic risk Framework

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www.abares.gov.au

Social analysis framework

Exposure Sensitivity Potential impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability

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Conclusions

  • An integrated approach drawing together climate modelling,

forest growth, economic analysis and community vulnerability assessment:

  • an important first step in understanding impacts of

climate change on forest industries at a regional level

  • allows an investigation of multiple risks
  • establishes a framework to investigate the potential

future adaptation responses (silviculture, wood processing, future markets)

  • The results of the study will be available in mid 2011
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Questions and comments

Science and economics for decision-makers