National Fuel Gas Company
Analyst Day Presentation
November 19, 2013
National Fuel Gas Company Analyst Day Presentation November 19, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
National Fuel Gas Company Analyst Day Presentation November 19, 2013 Corporate National Fuel Gas Company Safe Harbor For Forward Looking Statements This presentation may contain forward-looking statements as defined by the Private
National Fuel Gas Company
Analyst Day Presentation
November 19, 2013
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
National Fuel Gas Company
Safe Harbor For Forward Looking Statements
2
This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding future prospects, plans, performance and capital structure, anticipated capital expenditures and completion of construction projects, as well as statements that are identified by the use of the words “anticipates,” “estimates,” “expects,” “forecasts,” “intends,” “plans,” “predicts,” “projects,” “believes,” “seeks,” “will,” “may,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. The Company’s expectations, beliefs and projections contained herein are expressed in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis, but there can be no assurance that such expectations, beliefs or projections will result or be achieved or accomplished. In addition to other factors, the following are important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from results referred to in the forward-looking statements: factors affecting the Company’s ability to successfully identify, drill for and produce economically viable natural gas and oil reserves, including among others geology, lease availability, title disputes, weather conditions, shortages, delays or unavailability of equipment and services required in drilling operations, insufficient gathering, processing and transportation capacity, the need to obtain governmental approvals and permits, and compliance with environmental laws and regulations; changes in laws, regulations or judicial interpretations to which the Company is subject, including those involving derivatives, taxes, safety, employment, climate change, other environmental matters, real property, and exploration and production activities such as hydraulic fracturing; changes in the price of natural gas or oil; impairments under the SEC’s full cost ceiling test for natural gas and oil reserves; uncertainty of oil and gas reserve estimates; significant differences between the Company’s projected and actual production levels for natural gas orAnalyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
National Fuel Gas Company
Analyst Day – Schedule of Speakers
3
Presenter Topic
Ron Tanski
President and Chief Executive Officer
Matt Cabell President of Seneca Resources Corporation
Overview John McGinnis Senior VP of Seneca Resources Corporation
Barry McMahan Senior VP of Seneca Resources Corporation
Environmental Ron Kraemer President of Empire Pipeline, Inc. VP of National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation
Dave Bauer Treasurer and Principal Financial Officer
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate 4
Corporate Overview
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
National Fuel Gas Company
Exceptional Assets, Focused on Execution
5
1.549 Tcfe of Proved Reserves 800,000 Net Acres in Pennsylvania 2.8 MMBbl of Crude Oil Production $191 Million of Midstream EBITDA
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
National Fuel Gas Company
A History of Success & A Future of Opportunity
6
Recent Success
35% Production CAGR Since 2010 Nearly $600 Million Invested in New Pipeline Infrastructure De-risked 2,000 Well Locations in the Marcellus
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Corporate Overview
Integrated Businesses Provide Complimentary Benefits
7 $280 $327 $377 $397 $492 $0 $150 $300 $450 $600 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Adjusted EBITDA ($ Millions) Fiscal Year
Upstream (E&P)
Tremendous Growth (15% CAGR)
$131 $123 $121 $152 $191 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Adjusted EBITDA ($ Millions)
Fiscal Year
Midstream Businesses
Growth & Predictability (10% CAGR)
$164 $167 $169 $160 $172 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Adjusted EBITDA ($ Millions)
Fiscal Year
Downstream (Utility)
Stability & Financial Strength
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Corporate Overview
Consistent Growth in Low Natural Gas Price Environment
8
$164 28% $167 26% $169 25% $160 23% $172 20% $131 23% $121 19% $111 17% $137 19% $161 19% $30 3% $280 48% $327 52% $377 57% $397 56% $492 58%
$581 $632 $668 $704 $852
$0 $250 $500 $750 $1,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Adjusted EBITDA ($ Millions)
Fiscal Year
Energy Marketing & Other Utility Segment Pipeline & Storage Segment Gathering Segment Exploration & Production Segment
Fiscal Year Natural Gas(1) ($/MMBtu)
2009 $4.68 2010 $4.49 2011 $4.10 2012 $2.83 2013 $3.60
Natural gas prices dropped 23% from 2009 to 2013
(1) Average NYMEX contract settlement price for the 12-month periodAnalyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Corporate Overview
Still in the Early Stages of Our Marcellus Growth Story
9
2008-2009 2010-2011 2012-2013 2014-2015 2016+
Eastern Development Area Western Development Area
Initial Delineation Full Development (200-220 Locations) Initial Delineation Full Development (1,700-2,000 Locations) Optimization & Enhancement Optimization & Enhancement Delineation (New Areas/Depths) Delineation (New Areas/Depths) Production Decline
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Corporate Overview
Formula to Grow Our Marcellus Development Program
10
High-Quality Reservoir Infrastructure & Marketing Realized Natural Gas Price
Increased Capital Deployment
National Fuel is maintaining a proactive approach to securing markets for its growing natural gas production Operating Efficiencies
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Corporate Overview
Opportunities to Move Gas Out of the Northeast
11
31% 52% 62% 69% 76% 86% 90% 93% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
% of Year that Northeast will be Long Gas Supply
The oversupply of natural gas in the Northeast is creating opportunities for the midstream businesses to develop projects to deliver to higher-priced markets such as Eastern Canada and the Southeast
Source: TPH ResearchAnalyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Corporate Overview
Marcellus Infrastructure Growth Still Has Room to Run
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1,819 MDth per day
$422 million
2010 to 2013 Expansions
1,724 to 2,224 MDth per day
~$1.5 billion
2014+ Expansions
Plans are in place to deploy significant capital to double the expansion capacity added since 2010
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
National Fuel Gas Company
A History of Success & A Future of Opportunity
13
10-15% Adjusted EBITDA Growth 15-25% Production Growth $1.5 Billion of Midstream Investment Over 5 Years
Future Goals
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Ability to modestly increase leverage 1.89x Debt/Adjusted EBITDA
58% E&P(1) 42% Midstream/Utility(1) Operational synergies
Diversification of businesses provide credit support Leverage is the cheapest cost of capital today
Corporate Overview
Maintaining Our View on Corporate Structure
14
Today Future (2015+)
Requires Capital
Goal is to accelerate value creation Need stronger natural gas prices Additional leverage is limited Result may lead to a shift in business mix
Midstream MLP Upstream/Midstream JV
In today’s commodity price environment, our current structure can handle near-term growth. Look to accelerate development when the economics of doing so are favorable.
(1) Based on Adjusted EBITDAAnalyst Day - November 2013 Upstream 15
Exploration & Production Overview
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream 41 Bcfe 43 Bcfe 50 Bcfe 68 Bcfe 83 Bcfe 121 Bcfe ~155 Bcfe(1) ~200 Bcfe(1)
Total Production
Seneca Resources
Seneca’s Evolution
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2008 2014 Gulf of Mexico California Shallow Appalachia Marcellus Shale – Eastern Development Area Marcellus Shale – Western Development Area Utica Shale (Delineation) Geneseo Shale (Delineation)
~400% Production Growth
(2008 to 2015)
(1) Represents the midpoint of current guidance (Fiscal 2014: 145 – 165 Bcfe; Fiscal 2015: 180 – 220 Bcfe)2011
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Total production increased 45% to 120.7 Bcfe
Seneca Resources
Fiscal 2013 Highlights
17
45%
Replaced 351% of proved reserves Finding & Development Cost: $1.31/Mcfe Marcellus Finding & Development Cost: $0.99/Mcfe
351%
Achieved major breakthrough in the Marcellus Shale Western Development Area (WDA) De-risked 1,700 to 2,000 future drilling locations
WDA Success
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca Resources
Disciplined Capital Spending
18
$31 $28$47 $63 $105 $90- $130 $90- $130
$139 $356 $596 $631 $428 $460- $520 $560- $620 $188(1) $398 $649 $694 $533 $550-$650 $650-$750 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast Capital Expenditures ($ Millions)
Fiscal Year
Gulf of Mexico (Divested in 2011) East Division (Appalachia) West Division (California/Kansas)
(1) Does not include the $34.9 MM acquisition of Ivanhoe’s U.S.-based assets in California, as this was accounted for as an investment in subsidiaries on the Statement of Cash Flows, and was not included in Capital ExpendituresAnalyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca Resources
Proven Record of Growth
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46.2 46.6 45.2 43.3 42.9 41.6 226 249 428 675 988 1,300
503 528 700 935 1,246 1,549 500 1000 1500 2000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Proved Reserves (Bcfe)
At September 30
Natural Gas (Bcf) Crude Oil (MMbbl)
Fiscal Years 3-Year F&D Cost(1) ($/Mcfe) 2006-2008 $7.63 2007-2009 $5.35 2008-2010 $2.37 2009-2011 $2.09 2010-2012 $1.87 2011-2013 $1.67
(1) Represents a three-year average U.S. finding and development cost 2013 F&D Cost = $1.31
Doubled Proved Reserves Since 2010 71% Proved Developed
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca Resources
Best-In-Class Marcellus Shale Reserve Growth
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33% 24% 21% 19% 7%
0% 15% 30% 45%
NFG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5
2009 to 2012 Proved Reserves CAGR(1)
(1) Peers consist of AR, COG, EQT, RRC, SWNAnalyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca Resources
Delivering Tremendous Production Growth
21
19.8 19.2 20.5 20.0 20-22 22-24 16.5 43.2 62.9 100.7 125-143 158-196 13.3 49.6 67.6 83.4 120.7 145-165 180-220 75 150 225 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast Annual Production (Bcfe)
Fiscal Year
Gulf of Mexico (Divested in 2011) East Division (Appalachia) West Division (California/Kansas)
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca Resources
Delivering More than Just Absolute Growth
22
0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1
1.0 1.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Production per Debt-Adjusted Share (Mcfe)
Fiscal Year
Total Production per Debt-Adjusted Share(2) (Mcfe)
(1) Year-end proved reserves divided by debt-adjusted year-end diluted shares outstanding (2) Annual production per share divided by debt-adjusted year-end diluted shares outstanding5.5 7.1 9.0 11.5 14.4
10 15 20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Proved Reserves per Debt-Adjusted Share (Mcfe)
At September 30
Proved Reserves per Debt-Adjusted Share(1) (Mcfe)
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Significant Position & Integral Part of Seneca’s Future
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Company Net Marcellus Acreage(1) Enterprise Value(2) ($ Billions) Acres per $ Million of EV NFG 780,000 $7.4 105.4 RRC 835,000 $15.5 53.9 EQT 560,000 $15.5 36.1 SWN 337,000 $14.6 23.0 AR 334,000 $17.2 19.4 COG 200,000 $15.2 13.1
(1) Source: ITG Investment Research, & Company Data (2) Source: Bloomberg - As of November 8, 2013Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Factors for Success
Control costs Maximize production
Ability to withstand price swings and market dislocations
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Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Prolific Pennsylvania Acreage
25
Eastern Development Area (EDA)
Mostly leased (16-18% royalty) No near-term lease expiration
Ongoing development drilling in Tioga and Lycoming Counties
Western Development Area (WDA)
Mineral ownership: 83%
Net revenue interest: 98% Highly contiguous
Seneca Lease Seneca Fee
720,000 Acres 60,000 Acres
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca Acreage
Huge Position – Varies in Understanding
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Seneca Lease Seneca Fee
Tier I ~200,000 Acres
Northeast Core ~30,000 acres in NE Core Tier I Acres ~200,000 acres Economic less than $4/Mcf Awaiting Evaluation ~250,000 acres Requires Gas Price Above $4/Mcf ~300,000 acres
Understanding Seneca’s 780,000 Net Acres
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca Acreage
Fee Ownership & Contiguity are Beneficial
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No Royalty No Lease Expiration Contiguous Acreage Blocks
Seneca’s Tier I acreage is approaching Northeast Core economics
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca Acreage
Seneca’s Marcellus Acreage Provides a Unique Advantage
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Note: Assuming a 7.8 Bcf well, with a 6,000’ lateral and 40 frac stages Note: Assumes $4/MMBtu realized natural gas pricingSeneca Advantage #1 Fee Ownership Position
28% IRR
Competitor Advantage #1 Advantage #2 Seneca Advantage Capital Expenditures $9,000 $9,000 $7,000 $7,000 Multiple Pads No No Yes Yes Working Interest 100% 100% 100% 100% Revenue Interest 84% 100% 84% 100% IRR 18% 28% 29% 43%
Seneca Advantage #2 Contiguous Acreage for Multiple Pads
29% IRR
Seneca Advantage Fee Ownership + Contiguous Acreage
43% IRR
Competitor
Single Pad Working Interest: 100% Revenue Interest: 84%
18% IRR
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca’s Operations
Best-In-Class Operator in Lycoming County (EDA)
29
8.2 4.2 4.0 3.3 3.1 2.2 2.1 1.5 1.0
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Seneca
Horizontal Well Count Average Production per Well (MMcf per Day)
Average MMcf per Day Horizontal Well Count
Source: DEP Production Data (January 2013 to June 2013)Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca’s Operations
Top-Notch Lycoming Economics
30
12.3 6.6 6.3 4.9 3.7
$0 $2 $4 $6 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 NFG APC SWN RRC XCO Breakeven Price ($/Mcfe) EUR (Bcfe)
Lycoming County: EURs & Breakeven Prices
EUR (Bcfe) Breakeven Price
Source: ITG IR, raw data provided by didesktop and state agenciesAnalyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca’s Operations
Seneca’s Lycoming Economics are in the Top 3
31
$2.41 $2.79 $2.80 $2.95 $2.95 $2.96 $3.03 $3.06 $3.09 $3.11 $3.21 $3.23 $3.25 $3.33 $3.35 $3.46 $3.54 $3.62 $3.65 $3.69
$2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 Breakeven NYMEX ($/Mcf)
Top Marcellus Breakevens by Operator & County
(Source: ITG Investment Research)
Source: ITG IR, raw data provided by didesktop and state agenciesThere are an additional 109 breakeven data points greater than $3.69/Mcf
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca’s Operations
Driving Down Well Costs
32
$10.0 $8.1 $6.7 $5.8 $0.0 $3.0 $6.0 $9.0 $12.0 2012 2013 2014 (Est.) Best YTD
Total Well Costs ($ Millions)
Fiscal Year
DCNR Tract 100 Total Well Costs
RCS Well Normalized for 5,500’ Lateral & 37 RCS Stages
Tract 100 (EDA)
In 2014, total well costs are expected to be ~35-40% lower than 2012
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca’s Gathering & Marketing
Seneca’s Overall Marketing Strategy
33
Develop gathering infrastructure with NFG Midstream Firm sales at interstate pipeline interconnects Firm transport (FT) to major markets Firm sales tied to FT contracts Financial hedges to lock in benchmark and basis risk Financial hedges to lock in benchmark and basis risk
Historical Strategy Current/Long-Term Strategy
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
National Fuel’s Financial Stability
Ability to Withstand Pricing Challenges
34
Strong Balance Sheet & Liquidity Position Cash Generation from California Oil No Near-Term Debt Maturities Active Hedging Program
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Factors for Success
Control costs Maximize production
Ability to withstand price swings and market dislocations
35
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
California
Outstanding Cash Flow(1)
36
$31.4 $27.6 $47.4 $62.9 $104.6 $171.6 $187.8 $187.6 $226.9 $215.0
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$ Millions
Fiscal Year Capital Expenditures Adjusted EBITDA
(1) Adjusted EBITDA and Capital Expenditures represent Seneca Resources Corporation’s West Division, which includes its activity in KansasAnalyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Gross Prodcution (BOPD)Seneca South Midway Sunset Production
SRC Development Production Historical PDP (Assumes 6% Decline)California
Looking Back at the Successful Ivanhoe Acquisition
37
Purchase Price $39.2 million Proved PV-10 at 9/30/13(1) $149.5 million $10.3 million cumulative net cash flow (including purchase price) since acquisition Net Production at Acquisition 550 Bbl per Day (March 2009) Net Production at 9/30/13 1,157 Bbl per Day
110% Increase
(1) PV-10 from 10/1/2013 SEC reserves $2.6 $3.4 $10.9 $11.4 $25.6 $27.6 ($45) ($30) ($15) $0 $15 $30 $45 $607/1/2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Est.
Cash Flow ($ Millions) Fiscal YearIvanhoe Acquisition Cash Flow
Annual CumulativeAcquisition Date
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
California
Looking Forward
38
production
for growth from current assets
Sespe East Coalinga South Midway Sunset
acquisition and farm-in
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca Resources
Key Metrics
39
Operational Strategy Metric Fiscal 2009 Strategic Improvements Fiscal 2013 Focus on growth-
Shale assets with significant fee acreage Maintain and grow strong cash flow assets in California East Division Production East Division Proved Reserves East Division EBITDA Operating Costs(1) West Division EBITDA Cash Margin(2) 9 Bcfe
(21% of Total Production)152 Bcfe
(29% of Proved Reserves)$57 million
(20% of Total EBITDA)$2.15 per Mcfe $172 million $52 per Bbl 101 Bcfe
(83% of Total Production)1,240 Bcfe
(80% of Proved Reserves)$284 million
(57% of Total EBITDA)$1.09 per Mcfe
One of the lowest cost producers in the region$215 million $66 per Bbl 12x Production Growth 7x Reserve Growth 5x EBITDA Growth 49% Decrease per Mcfe 25% EBITDA Growth 28% Margin Improvement
(1) Defined as LOE and G&A per Mcfe (2) Defined as realized price including the effects of hedging less LOE , G&A and production taxesAnalyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca Resources
What Will Seneca Look Like Moving Forward?
40
Consistent Production Growth: 15-25% CAGR
Driven by a very large, high-quality Appalachian acreage position
Maintain Oil Production → Expand When Possible
Excellent operator and significant cash flow generation
Disciplined Spending Driven by Rates of Return
Pace of development adapts to changing market dynamics
A Leader in Technology, Safety & Environmental Responsibility
Maintain a leadership role in using technology and developing best practices
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream 41
Appraisal & Development Overview
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
WDA Is the Key to Seneca’s Long-Term Growth Outlook
42
Full Development Since 2010 ~225 locations remaining
Near-term driver of growth Full Development Started in 2013 1,700 to 2,000 locations de-risked Long-term driver of growth
Seneca Lease Seneca Fee
720,000 Acres 60,000 Acres
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Significantly Improved Understanding of the WDA
43
SRC Lease Acreage SRC Fee Acreage James City Church Run Owl’s NestKey Statistics
Vertical Wells: 30 Full Core: 8 Sidewall Core: 2 3D Seismic: 432 sq m
3D Seismic Outlines EOG Earned AcreageAnalyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Northwest PA Generalized Cross-Section
44 Transitional Outer Shelf
CaCO3
TOC
Platform Basin
Rich Valley Clermont Beechwood Owl’s Nest James City Leasgang Punxy Ridgway
High variability, very poor rock quality in areas High organics, great rock quality, less variability Medium rock quality, high pressures
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
WDA Log Summary Cross-Section
45
TOC/PHI/BWV 0 Wt% 50 0.2 v/v 0 0.2 v/v 0 Mineralogy Volume % Gas Resource 0 Mcf/ac-ft 1500 0 Bcf/mi 100ɸ = 6.8 - 8.1%
Total GIP = ~70/sect
ɸ = 5.6 - 6.7%
Total GIP = ~75/sect
TOC/PHI/BWV 0 Wt% 50 0.2 v/v 0 0.2 v/v 0 Mineralogy Volume % Gas Resource 0 Mcf/ac-ft 1500 0 Bcf/mi 100 TOC/PHI/BWV 0 Wt% 50 0.2 v/v 0 0.2 v/v 0 Mineralogy Volume % Gas Resource 0 Mcf/ac-ft 1500 0 Bcf/mi 100 TOC/PHI/BWV 0 Wt% 50 0.2 v/v 0 0.2 v/v 0 Mineralogy Volume % Gas Resource 0 Mcf/ac-ft 1500 0 Bcf/mi 100ɸ = 5.5 - 6.6%
Total GIP = ~60/sect
ɸ = 2.8 – 4.3%
Total GIP = < 40/sect
Very poor rock quality. Low gas in place.
Transitional Outer Shelf Platform Basin
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
SRC Lease Acreage SRC Fee Acreage EOG Earned JV AcreageMarcellus Shale
2013 & 2014 WDA Delineation Program
46 Owl’s Nest – Delineating 2 High Btu Wells Completed Rich Valley – Full Development 2 Wells Completed 7-Day IP of 7.8 MMcf/d & EUR of 7.4 Bcf 2nd Well 7-Day IP: 4.5 MMcf/d Tionesta – Delineating 1 Well Completed Ridgway – Delineating 1 Well Completed
2013 Drill Program
Seneca Operated Heath – Delineating 1 Well Planned Sulger Farms – Delineating 1 Well Planned Hemlock – Delineating 1 Well Planned
2014 Drill Program
Church Run – Delineating 1 Well Completed Clermont – Full Development 2 Wells Completed 9H: 7-Day IP of 10 MMcf/d & EUR of 8.6 Bcf 10H: 7-Day IP of 7.4 MMcf/d & EUR of 6.6 Bcf
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Rich Valley/Clermont is in Full Development Mode
47
Clermont Rich Valley
Rich Valley 2nd Well 7-day IP: 4.5 MMcf/d Lateral Length: 4,492’
Marcellus Faults Marcellus & Basement Faults
200-250 Horizontal Locations
Pad N: Spacing Test JV Wells Pad H Pad D Pad E Pad O
SRC Lease Acreage SRC Fee Acreage
Clermont RCS: 9H 7-day IP: 10.0 MMcf/d (EUR: 8.6 Bcf) Non-RCS: 10H 7-day IP: 7.4 MMcf/d Rich Valley 7-day IP: 7.8 MMcf/d EUR: 7.4 BCF Lateral Length: 6,372’
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Clermont Wells Improved from Early Non-Op JV Wells
48
Clermont 5H & 6H (Non-op wells)
Clermont 9H & 10H (Seneca wells)
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 5 10 15 20 25 30
Mcf per Day
Days On
9H 10H COP 2316 5H COP 2316 6H
SRC Clermont vs. Non-Op JV Clermont
9H: RCS Completion (150’ stage spacing) 10H: Standard Completion (240’ stage spacing)
Non-Op JV Wells (5H, 6H)
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Moving All Completions to Reduced Cluster Spacing (RCS)
49
300’
Wellbore Formation FractureRCS Design
~1000’
300’
Formation~1000’
Conventional Design
Wellbore Fracture Twice the number of stages/perforations
Increases stimulated reservoir volume
Increased proppant near the wellbore improves fracture conductivity
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Flowback Gas Rate (Mcfd) Elapsed Time Ridgway Church Run ON1H-Sales ON3H-Sales ON54HChurch Run Owl’s Nest Ridgway
Marcellus Shale
Consistently Improved Results in the Owl’s Nest Area
50
Owl’s Nest Area
2013 Appraisal Program
target
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Strong Wells Across WDA Acreage
51
Well Name Completion Design Treatable Lateral Length Stages Peak 24-Hour Rate (MMcfd) Peak 7-Day Rate (MMcfd) EUR (Bcf) Status Rich Valley 27H RCS1 6,372’ 42 8.1 7.8 7.4 Producing Clermont 9H RCS 5,500’ 37 11.4 10.0 8.6 Producing Clermont 10H Non-RCS 5,565’ 23 8.1 7.3 6.6 Producing Ridgway 19H RCS 5,537’ 37 7.1 6.4 5-8 Flowback Test Church Run 2H RCS 4,435’ 29 4.8 4.5 4-6 Flowback Test Owl’s Nest 54H RCS 6,139’ 41 6.1 5.8 4-7 Flowback Test Owl’s Nest 59H RCS; Gel2 5,371’ 36 3.4 3.1 2-4 Flowback Test
(1) RCS – Reduced Cluster Spacing (2) Completed using linear gel to place larger proppant near the wellboreAnalyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Key Areas of Improvement in Recent Delineation Program
52
Areas of Improvement 2012-2013 Delineation Program Target Selection (Landing Depth)
Identification of specific target interval is key
Target Execution
Percent of wellbore in target interval increased from prior years
Completion Design
Reduced Cluster Spacing (RCS)
Increased volume of sand per foot
Lateral Length
Drilled laterals 15-45% longer than in prior years
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
23% 33% 83%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Percent In Current Target (% of CLL) Well Year
Percentage of Wellbore in Current Target Interval
Wells Averages
Marcellus Shale
Selection of Target Interval is Critical
53
Previous programs spent a significant portion ( > 60% ) of the wellbore outside of the current target interval, identified to have improved productivity
260% Improvement
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Optimized Landing Depth
54
EDA Lycoming Type Log
160 140 120 100 80 40 20 60 ROP (ft/hr)
ROP vs Height Above Onondaga
Improved Target Zone Drivers
Best rock quality in terms of organic content, brittleness, and porosity Highest rate of penetration (ROP)
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
71% 69% 83% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Percent In Target (% of CLL) Well Year
Percent of Wellbore In Target Zone (15-20’ Interval)
Wells Averages
Marcellus Shale
Continued Improvement Staying within Targeted Interval
55
17% Improvement
Reasons for Improvement
3D seismic acquisition Improved communication between Geology, Drilling and Completion teams Geosteering technology (azimuthal GR)
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
RCS & Increased Sand Volume Generating Better Results
56 1,275 1,448 1,479 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pounds of Sand per Foot
Well Year
Pounds of Sand per Foot
Wells Averages 349 266 162 10 20 30 40 50 60 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Stage Count
Well Year
Stage Spacing & Count
Wells Averages Stage Count
Improved near wellbore fracture conductivity Increases near wellbore fracturing & stimulated reservoir volume
Reducing stage length, increasing the number of stages, and increasing proppant volume have been integral in improving well productivity
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Longer Laterals Drive Improved Economics
57
3,709 4,838 5,586 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Completed Lateral Length (ft) Well Year
Completed Lateral Length (ft)
Wells Averages
50% Increase
Lateral lengths have increased even as target selection and execution have improved
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
2013 Appraisal Program was a Success
58
50-hr Flowback Rate (Mcf/d/1000')
P10 P50 P90 Mean StDev
FY13 Program
1,427 1,128 893 1,147 211
Previous Programs
1,002 519 270 589 329
95% improvement
0.100 0.600 1.100 1.600 2.100 100 1000 Avg Rate, Peak 50 hr/1000'
P50 P60 P70 P80 P90 P99 P1 P10 P20 P30 P40Rich Valley Flowback EUR: 7.4 BCF
2010-2011 Program 2013 Program
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
200,000 Acres With 6-8 Bcfe EUR Wells
59
SRC Lease Acreage SRC Fee Acreage EOG Earned JV AcreageVertical well data base
2014 Hz Appraisal Program 2015+ Locations
4 - 6 BCF/well 4 - 6 BCF/well 6 - 8 BCF/well 2-4 BCF/well 2-4 BCF/well
Note: Assumes 6,000’ treated lateral lengthAnalyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
1,700 To 2,000 Economic WDA Locations Below $4/Mcfe
60 Prospect County Product Approx. Remaining Locations EUR (Bcfe) BTU IRR(1) @ $4/MMBtu 15% IRR(1) Breakeven Price ($/Mcf)
Tract 100 Lycoming Dry Gas 40 11.5 1,030 90% $2.20 Gamble Lycoming Dry Gas 29 10-11 1,030 77% $2.33 Tract 595 Tioga Dry Gas 20 8.4 1,030 45% $2.63 Clermont/Rich Valley Elk/Cameron Dry Gas 228 6-8 1,050 38% $2.80 Ridgway Elk Dry Gas 450-570 6-8 1,111 26% $3.30 Hemlock Elk Dry Gas 130-170 6-8 1,070 23% $3.40 Church Run Elk Dry Gas 60-70 6-8 1,125 22% $3.45 (W) West Branch McKean Dry Gas 47 6-8 1,050 22% $3.48 Covington Tioga Dry Gas Developed 5.7 1,030 22% $3.49 Heath Jefferson Dry Gas 260-330 5-8 1,060 19% $3.65 Sulger Farms Jefferson Dry Gas 170-210 5-8 1,020 19% $3.66 Owl’s Nest/James City Elk/Forest Dry Gas 120-160 5-8 1,125 18% $3.69 Boone Mt. Elk Dry Gas 230-290 4-6 1,020 18% $3.76 Church Run Elk Wet Gas 40-50 2-4 1,140 13% $4.32 Tionesta Forest/Venango Wet Gas/ Liquids 300-340 4-6 1,325 12% $4.50 Owl’s Nest/James City Elk/Forest Wet Gas 150-180 4-6 1,140 11% $4.51
McKean Wet Gas 90-110 2-4 1,140 6% $5.50 Beechwood Cameron Dry Gas 210-280 2-4 1,030 2% $7.14 Red Hill Cameron Dry Gas 150-200 2-4 1,030 2% $7.14
2013 Appraisal prospects 2014 Appraisal prospects
(1) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) includes estimated well costs, LOE, and Gathering tariffs anticipated for each prospectAnalyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale Marketing
Intercompany Gathering Ensures Timely Gas Sales
61
Develop gathering infrastructure with NFG Midstream Firm transport (FT) to major markets Firm sales tied to FT contracts Financial hedges to lock in benchmark and basis risk Financial hedges to lock in benchmark and basis risk
Historical Strategy Current/Long-Term Strategy
Firm sales at interstate pipeline interconnects
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale Marketing
Securing Firm Transportation to Major Markets
62
Current Seneca Development Areas
Firm transport to Canada, Northeast and Southeast U.S. markets
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale Marketing
TGP 300 Production & Firm Sales Aligned Thru 2014
63
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Gross MMBtu per Day
Dawn NYMEX Dominion Production (Forecast)
Dawn Index Less $0.44 Dominion Index Less $0.37 NYMEX Index Less $0.24
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale Marketing
Targeting Future Firm Sales on Transco
64
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Gross MMBtu per Day
Transco Z6 NY/NNY NYMEX Dominion Production (Forecast)
Transco Zone 6 Index Less $0.57 Dominion Index Less $0.14 NYMEX Index Less $0.29
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Point Pleasant & Utica Shale
Continuing to Delineate
65 Permitted Drilled/Drilling Completed Producing
Horizontal: completed September 2013 Peak 24-Hour Rate: 8.5 MMcf/d
Tionesta
Horizontal: Completed Fall 2012 Peak 24-Hour Rate: 3.9 MMcf/d Rex
9.2 MMcf/d
Chesapeake
6.4 MMcf/d
Range Resources
4.4 MMcf/d
Range Resources
1.4 MMcf/d
“Not Effectively Stimulated”Halcon
6.6 MMcf/d, 750 Bbls/d
Halcon
2.5 MMcf/d, 360 Bbls/d
Halcon
4.5 MMcf/d, 860 Bbls/d Eastern Ohio Point Pleasant Core Point Pleasant Northern Boundary
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Mississippian Lime
Commencing Evaluation Program in Fiscal 2014
66
Total Net Acres: 13,615
gross acres
gross acres
working interest and have taken
2014
The initial entry into the Mississippian Lime play furthers the Company’s goal of maintaining a significant contribution from oil-producing properties
Unit
30-day IP: 352 BOED (92% Oil/NGLs)
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream 67
California Update
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
California
Stable Production Fields; Modest Growth Potential
68 4,500 500 1,700 1,200 800 4,000 1,200 1,500 1,100 1,100 500 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 North Midway Sunset South Midway Sunset South Lost Hills North Lost Hills Sespe East Coalinga Gross Operated Daily Production (Boe/d) 2010 2013
East Coalinga
Temblor Formation Primary
North Lost Hills
Tulare & Etchegoin Formation Primary/Steamflood
South Lost Hills
Monterey Shale Primary
North Midway Sunset
Tulare & Potter Formation Steamflood
South Midway Sunset
Antelope Formation Steamflood
Sespe
Sespe Formation Primary
Key Areas of Focus in 2014
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
California
South Midway Sunset Has Delivered Significant Growth
69 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Daily Production (Boe per day)
Monthly Production at South Midway Sunset Seneca Acquired in June 2009
Highlights Since Acquisition
pool development
252 Pool 97X Pool SE Pool 251 Pool B Pool A Pool
Extended Pool Boundary Original Pool Boundary Existing Wells
1000’
16X Pool
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
California
South MWSS Growth Opportunities Continue into 2014
70
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
California
Early Success in Farm-In with Chevron at East Coalinga
71
1-Acre Test 48 BOPD 5-Acre Test 54 BOPD 2-Acre Test 18 BOPD
2000’
Returned to Production 1-acre (~30 locations) 2-acre (~40 locations) 5-acre (~120 locations) Downspacing Potential 2013 Evaluation Wells Seneca Lease Existing Wells250 500 750 Daily Production (Boe per Day)
Monthly Production @ East Coalinga Seneca Acquired in January 2013
Highlights Since Acquisition
years
confirmed downspacing potential
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
California
Ramping Up the Coalinga Drill Program in Fiscal 2014
72
2014 Development Program (Tentative) Location Selection Criteria 2014 Locations (30) 2013 Locations (12)
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
California
Ongoing Evaluation of Long-Term Sespe Potential
73 TC 524-28 IP: 100 BOEPD 1st Oil 10/13
“X” SANDS ISOCHORE (Thickness)
1 Mile
2011 Wells (5) 2012 Wells (6) 2013 Wells (6) 2014 Wells (4)
TC 525-28 IP: 160 BOEPD 1st Oil 10/13 WS 525-33 1st Oil in 11/13 WS 535-33 1st Oil in 11/13 Year Target # of Wells Average IP (BOEPD) 2011 Sespe (5-Acre Infill) 2 75 2011 Sespe (10-Acre) 3 90 2012 Sespe (5-Acre Infill) 2 70 2012 Coldwater 2 125 2012 Sespe (10 Acre) 2 110 2013 Sespe (5-Acre Infill) 2 NA 2013 Coldwater 2 130 2013 Sespe (10 Acre) 2 85
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
California
Evaluating the Monterey Shale at South Lost Hills
74 Citrus 11 Upper Antelope A Upper Antelope B McDonald
Truman 1H 2013 190 BOEPD Citrus 2H
Planned FY14
Truman 2H
Planned FY14
GR SP ResD Brittleness Gas Oil18 potential locations in each of the three horizons (concept)
Seneca Lease
1000’
Lower Reef Ridge
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
California
Limited Growth Opportunities, But Strong Economics
75
Field Average Well Cost Average EUR (MBO) Estimated IRR @$100/Bbl Fiscal 2014 Locations South Midway Sunset $250,000 30 75% 23 East Coalinga $400,000 40 50% 30 Sespe – 5 Acre Infill $2,800,000 150 25% Sespe - Coldwater $2,800,000 180 35% 4
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
9,056 8,773 9,322 9,078 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est.) 2015 (Est.) Average Daily Net Production (BOE per Day) Fiscal Year
California
Modest Growth Anticipated in 2014 and 2015
76
Forecast
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream 77
Marcellus Operational & Environmental Overview
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Our Development Approach Drives Major Efficiencies
78
Multi-Well Pads Focused Development Areas Faster Spud-to-Sales Timing Economies of Scale Reduces Costs Minimal Infrastructure Constraints & Well Backlog Technical & Operational Expertise
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
EDA Delivering Significant Growth
79
Covington – Fully Developed Gross Production: ~60 MMcf per Day 47 Wells Drilled and Producing DCNR Tract 595 Gross Production: ~100 MMcf per Day 34 Wells Drilled (52 Total Locations) 26 Wells Producing DCNR Tract 100 Gross Production: ~220 MMcf per Day 40 Wells Drilled (70 Total Locations) 30 Wells Producing Gamble Recently, 30 to 50 future locations were added in Lycoming County
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
EDA – Historical Well Results Are Exceptional
80
Development Area Producing Well Count Average IP Rate (MMcf/d) Average 7-Day (MMcf/d) Average 30-Day (MMcf/d) Average EUR per Well (Bcf) Average Lateral Length EUR per 1,000’ of Lateral (Bcfe) Covington Tioga County 47 5.2 4.7 4.1 5.7 4,023’ 1.42 Tract 595 Tioga County 26 7.1 6.0 5.1 8.4 4,639’ 1.81 Tract 100 Lycoming County 30 16.1 14.2 11.9 11.5 5,210’ 2.21
Seneca’s acreage in Lycoming County has consistently delivered some of the most prolific wells in the Marcellus Shale
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Faster Spud-to-Sales: Drilling Efficiencies
81
642 624 829 1,050 1,200 1,320 500 1,000 1,500 2011 2012 2013 2013 Q4 2014 (Est.) Best FYTD Daily Footage Fiscal Year
DCNR Tract 100 (Lycoming) Average Daily Drilling Footage
How has this been accomplished?
Directional Plan Optimization
Bit Selection
Drill Top-hole Sections Deeper with Water
Optimize Landing Depth
penetration
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Faster Spud-to-Sales: Multi-Well Pads Are Key
82
Limiting the movement of rigs between pads allows for more drilling Using LEAN practices has eliminated four days from each rig move Staying in smaller regional areas further limits move time
18.2 10.1 5.4 3.7 2.818.2 20.2 21.4 21.9 22.1 16 18 20 22 24 4 8 12 16 20 24 1 2 4 6 8 Wells per Year Rig Moves Wells per Pad
Average Number of Yearly Rig Moves
Average Rig Moves (per Rig) Average Wells per Year (per Rig) $390 $225 $143 $115 $103$2.6 $4.0 $4.6 $4.8 $0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 $6.0 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 1 2 4 6 8 Cumulative Annual Cost Savings ($ Millions) Average per Well Move Cost ($ Thousands) Wells per Pad
Average Rig Move Cost per Well
Average per Well Move Cost Average Savings per Year (per Rig)Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Drilling Efficiencies Allow for More Wells per Year
83
12.0 11.6 11.3 14.5 18.7 3,929 4,614 4,650 5,021 5,500 2,000 4,000 6,000 10 20 30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est.) Average Lateral Length (Feet) Wells per Rig per Year Fiscal Year
Drilling Efficiency vs. Lateral Length All Marcellus Wells
In spite of increasing the average lateral length, each rig is drilling more wells per year
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Faster Spud-to-Sales: Completing More Stages per Day
84
3 7 10 12 5 10 15 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2014 (Est.) RCS Stages per Day Fiscal Year
DCNR Tract 100 (Lycoming) RCS Stages per Day
How has this been accomplished?
Completion Efficiency Technologies
Lean fundamentals (NPT tracking)
24-Hour Operations
Water Pipelines
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Faster Spud-to-Sales: The Overall Picture
85
164 161 158 131 89 89 72 101 95 60
253 Days 233 Days 259 Days 226 Days 149 Days
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est.)
Average Spud-to-Sales for a 6-Well Pad
(Normalized for 5,500’ Laterals per Well)
Drilling Completion
(1) (1) 2010 completion time based on a 5-well pad normalized to a 6-well padAnalyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Faster Spud-to-Sales: More Lateral Feet Completed Yearly
86
270 591 491 246 120 1,052 1,888 7 270 591 611 1,298 1,888 200 400 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est.) Lateral Feet Completed (Thousands) Stages Completed
Fiscal Year
Total Lateral Feet & Stages Completed
Stages per Year (RCS) Stages per Year (Non-RCS) Lateral Feet Completed
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Drilling Cost Reductions: Several Contributing Factors
87
22.0 24.0 18.0 14.8 12.0 11.1 10 20 30 2011 2012 2013 2013 Q4 2014 (Est.) Best FYTD Drilling Days Fiscal Year
DCNR Tract 100 (Lycoming) Average Drilling Days to TD
(Normalized for a 5,500’ Treatable Lateral)
$4.4 $3.8 $3.3 $2.5 $2.3 $2.0 $0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.0 $5.0 2011 2012 2013 2013 Q4 2014 (Est.) Best FYTD Drilling Cost ($ Millions) Fiscal Year
DCNR Tract 100 (Lycoming) Average Drilling Cost
(Normalized for a 5,500’ Treatable Lateral)
Improvements From 2012 to 2013 ($525,000 per well)
Shorter drilling days to TD: $300,000 Faster rig moves (2012: 8.5 Days → 2013: 4.5 Days): $20,000 (6-well pad) Procurement and supply chain initiatives: $120,000 Directional plan optimization: $60,000 Natural gas-powered rigs: $25,000
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Completion Cost Reductions: Ongoing Optimization
88
$160 $131 $120 $113 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 2012 2013 2014 (Est.) Best FYTD Completion Costs per Stage ($ Thousands) Fiscal Year
DCNR Tract 100 (Lycoming) Average RCS Completion Cost per Stage
How is this being accomplished?
New Frac Contract in 2014
reduced ~20%
Completion Efficiencies
Water Infrastructure
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Completion Cost Reductions: New Efficient Technologies
89
Prep
Frac
Drill-Out
Toe Sub $60,000 savings per well
Time Savings Time Savings Time Savings
Sleeve $200,000 savings per well Dissolvable Balls $300,000 savings per well
$3.4 million saved on a 6-well pad from the utilization of new technologies
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Completion Cost Reductions: Water Infrastructure
90
System Cost: $8.5 million
the remainder being recycled production fluid
Environmental & Cost Benefits
water trucks since February 2012
100 development to date
Improved Efficiencies
challenging terrain would have delayed completions and production
Storage Impoundment Water Pipeline
This model has been successful in Lycoming & Tioga counties and will be utilized in the WDA as development progresses
Analyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Marcellus Shale
Minimizing Backlogs: Coordinated Development
91
Coordination with NFG Midstream to construct gathering systems
the drill or complete phase
Regional development programs
gathering connectivity
Managing completion schedule
completion schedules Sales Lag (Months) 6 12 18
IRR(1) @ $4/Mcf Realized Pricing 90% 58% 46% 38%
(1) Assumes 6,000’ completed lateral length, $7.5MM well cost, and 11.5 Bcf EURAnalyst Day - November 2013 Upstream
Seneca Resources
Committed to Health, Safety, and the Environment
92
Seneca Resources Corporation – Value Statement
“We ask that each employee share in our philosophy and unwavering commitment to each other’s health and safety and the environment.”
“…creating a systematically integrated model
beyond mere compliance.” Dedicated 24-Hour EHS Hotline and E-mail Address Best Practices Incorporating Lean Process Strategies Management team dedicated to building a culture of continual EHS improvement Operating Excellence Program Compliance Department
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream 93
Midstream Businesses Overview
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
NFG Midstream Businesses Pipeline & Storage Segment National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation Empire Pipeline, Inc. Gathering Segment National Fuel Gas Midstream Corporation
Midstream Businesses
National Fuel’s Midstream Businesses
94
Reporting Segments Subsidiaries
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Midstream Businesses
Positioned Well to Serve Appalachian Producers
95
National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation
System Length ~ 2,550 Miles Storage Capacity 73.4 Bcf Contracted Transport 2.58 MMDth/d 2013 Revenue $191.2 Million 2010 – 2013 Capital Expenditures $304.6 Million Major Interconnects
Niagara(TCPL) Leidy (Transco/TETCO) Holbrook (TETCO) Mercer (TGP) Independence (Millennium) Ellisburg (TGP 300) East Aurora (TGP/DTI) NFG NFGAnalyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Midstream Businesses
Positioned Well to Serve Appalachian Producers
96
Empire Pipeline
System Length ~250 Miles Contracted Transport 1.07 MMDth/d 2013 Revenue $76.4 Million 2010 – 2013 Capital Expenditures $62.8 Million Major Interconnects
Sithe Mendon (RG&E) Chippawa (TCPL) Hopewell (TGP 200) Corning (Millennium) Jackson (Shell/Talisman) LysanderAnalyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Midstream Businesses
Positioned Well to Serve Appalachian Producers
97
NFG Midstream Corp.
System Length 59 Miles 2013 Revenue $34.8 Million Capital Expenditures (Since Inception) $168 Million Major Interconnects
TGP 300 TranscoAnalyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Midstream Businesses
Long-Term Strategy Driven by Both Seneca & 3rd Parties
98
Midstream Businesses 3rd Party Shippers Seneca Resources Develop strong partnerships with customers to help them reach diverse, high-value markets Diverse Markets
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Midstream Businesses
Positioned to Serve Seneca’s Rapidly Growing Production
99
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Gathering
Gathering is the Crucial First Step to Reaching a Market
100
TGP 300 Transco TGP 200Trout Run Gathering System (In-Service) Covington Gathering System (In-Service) Clermont Gathering System (Under Construction) Gathering Interconnects
(In-Service and Under Construction)
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Gathering
Existing Systems Supporting Seneca’s Near-Term Growth
101
Covington Gathering System
Trout Run Gathering System
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est.)
Throughput (MMDth)$ Millions
Fiscal Year Revenue by Project
(Covington & Trout Run Systems)
Covington Trout Run Total ThroughputInterconnects
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Gathering
Developing a 1+ Bcf/d Gathering System in the WDA
102
700 MMcf per day
Clermont 2014 Expansion
Plan to expand ahead of Seneca’s development to provide natural gas as rig fuel
Compressor Station Interconnect
C C
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Gathering
Clermont Gathering System has Large Expandability
103
C C
Clermont 2015 Expansion
700 to 1,000 MMcf per day
Gas Supply Corporation (anticipated)
East and Rich Valley Compressor Stations
following the 2015 expansion
C
Compressor Station Interconnect
C C
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Gathering
A Number of Options to Serve 3rd Party Producers
104
C C C
Midstream is evaluating a number of trunkline and gathering line expansions in fiscal 2015 and beyond, depending on Seneca activity and third-party producer interest
Compressor Station Interconnect
C C
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Gathering
2014 Spending Driven by Seneca Development
105
60% 28% 6% 6% 2014 Forecast Capital Expenditures
$100 to $150 Million
Clermont - $60 MM - $92 MM Build 30+ miles 24” and smaller diameter pipe Procure 10 compressor units for Phase I Upgrade existing interconnect into TGP Trout Run - $30 MM - $40 MM Complete two compressor stations (Total = 15 units) Initiate build out of Gamble Prospect gathering, south of DCNR Tract 100 Covington - $6 MM - $9 MM Build gathering for 3 additional well pads at DCNR Tract 595 Other Seneca WDA Prospects - $4 MM - $ 9 MM Build gathering and interconnect locations for Church Run and Ridgway prospects
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Gathering
More than 1.5 Bcf per day of Gathering Capacity by 2015
106
220 220 220 220 466 466 466 466 700 700- 1,000 100 160 220 686 706 1,421 1,421- 1,721
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast
Year-End Gathering Capacity (MMcf per Day)
Fiscal Year
NFG Midstream Gathering Capacity
Covington Trout Run WDA Other Clermont
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Gathering
Capital Deployment Will Deliver Long-Term Growth
107
$17.5 $34.8 $60-$72 $80-$95 $113 $168 $268-$318 $368-$468
$0 $30 $60 $90 $120 $150 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast
Revenue ($ Millions) Capital Expenditures ($ Millions)
Fiscal Year
Revenue Cumulative Capital Invested
Revenue Growth (2013 to 2015): ~60% CAGR Capital Investment (2013 to 2015): ~60% CAGR
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
Project Opportunities to Support WDA Growth
108
Develop multiple outlets to high-value markets
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Midstream Businesses
Providing Transportation to Higher-Priced Markets
109
Currently Short Supply
Short Supply
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Midstream Businesses
NE Supply Approaching NE Peak Demand
110
10 15 20 25 30 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Northeast Supply (Bcf per Day) Kentucky New York Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia West Virginia
Forecasted Actual
Peak Demand (24-25 Bcf per day) Median Demand (11.5 Bcf per day) Supply exceeds demand for 70% of the year by 2016
Source: Production Data – Bentek Northeast Natural Gas Production Monitor (November 2013); Demand Data – TPH ResearchAnalyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Midstream Businesses
Focusing on Projects to Non-Traditional Demand Markets
111
Short Supply
The markets of Eastern Canada, the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast look to be the most desirable markets for shippers to reach over the long-term
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
Delivering Into the Eastern Canadian Market is Valuable
112
$0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $ per MMBtu
Eastern Canada (Dawn) is Currently a Premium Priced Market
Dawn to Henry Hub Dawn to Dominion South Point
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
Northeast PA Spot Markets are Heavily Discounted
113
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $ per MMBtu
Eastern Canada (Dawn) is Currently a Premium Priced Market
Dawn to Dominion South Point Dawn to TGP 300 - Zone 4
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
Major Expansion Designed for Canadian Deliveries
114
Northern Access 2015
Niagara (TCPL)Delivery Point
Northern Access 2015
Canada & Eastern U.S.
ClermontAnalyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
Clermont to Chippawa Provides Delivery Options
115 Delivery Point
Clermont to Chippawa
Chippawa (TCPL) Hopewell (TGP 200) Corning (Millennium)Clermont to Chippawa
Canada & Eastern U.S. New England New York City
ClermontAnalyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
Longer-Term: Reaching Markets Along the Atlantic
116
TranscoClermont to Transco
To Mid-Atlantic & Southeast
Clermont to Transco
Delivery Point
ClermontAnalyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
Expansions to Move Gas from the WDA are Significant
117
Projects to Support WDA Growth
Project Capacity (Dth/day) Northern Access 2015 140,000 Clermont to Chippawa 250,000+ Clermont to Transco 300,000-500,000
Total New Capacity 690,000-890,000+
Project Capital Cost Northern Access 2015 $67 million Clermont to Chippawa $250 million Clermont to Transco $100-$150 million
Total Capital Expenditures $417-$467 million
Northern Access 2015 Clermont to Chippawa Longer-Term WDA Expansion
ClermontAnalyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
Seneca Currently Represents a Small Portion of Capacity
118
3% 7% 9% 21% 29% 31%
Affiliated Producer All Other Non-Affiliate Marketer Non-Affiliate LDC Affiliated LDC Non-Affiliate Producer
Contracted Transportation Capacity
(National Fuel Gas Supply Corp. & Empire Pipeline)
Total Contracted Transportation Capacity (at 9/30/13): 3.6 MMDth per Day
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
Recent 3rd Party Expansions Have Been Highly Successful
119
Projects to Support 3rd Parties
Project Capacity (Dth/day) Northern Access 2013 320,000 Tioga County Extension 350,000 Line N (2011, 2012 & 2013) 353,000 Total New Capacity 1,023,000 Project Capital Cost Northern Access 2013 $72 million Tioga County Extension $58 million Line N (2011, 2012 & 2013) $104 million Total Capital Expenditures $234 million
Northern Access 2013 Tioga County Extension Line N Projects
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
NFGSC is Now a Net Exporter of Natural Gas to Canada
120
(500) (400) (300) (200) (100)
MDth per Day
Throughput at the Niagara Delivery Point (Canadian Border)
Tennessee Gas Pipeline National Fuel Gas Supply Corp.
Northern Access project was placed in-service November 2011
Source: Internal data; TGP Flow Data – Bentek Northeast Observer (Monthly Average from June 2011 through October 2013)Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average Daily Throughput (MDth per Day) All Other Pipes NFGSC
Pipeline & Storage
National Fuel Becoming a Major SW PA Transporter
121
National Fuel Gas Supply Corp. went from no SW Pennsylvania receipts in 2008 to nearly 40% of all volumes today
Source: Production Data – Bentek Northeast Natural Gas Production Monitor (November 2013)Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
Additional Line N Expansions Planned for the Future
122
available capacity
Mercer Expansion
Mercer (TGP Station 219)Mercer Expansion
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Mercer (TGP Station 219)Pipeline & Storage
Pairing Line N Expansions with System Modernization
123
145,000 Dth per day
Westside Expansion & Modernization
Holbrook (TETCO)Westside Expansion & Modernization
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
Developing Unique Solutions for Shippers
124
RG&E
Tuscarora Lateral Tuscarora Lateral
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
Significant Expansions Are Driving Growth
125
Completed Projects
Project Capacity (Dth/day) Lamont Compressor Station 90,000 Line “N” Expansion 160,000 Tioga County Extension 350,000 Northern Access Expansion 320,000 Line “N” 2012 Expansion 163,000 Line “N” 2013 Expansion 30,000 New Capacity Additions 1,113,000 Mercer Expansion Project 105,000 West Side Expansion 145,000 Northern Access 2015 140,000 Tuscarora Lateral 69,000 Planned Capacity Additions 459,000
Line N Corridor
Line “N” Expansion Line “N” 2012 Expansion Line “N” 2013 Expansion Mercer Expansion West Side Expansion Total Capacity 603 MDth/d
Delivering Gas North
Tioga County Extension Northern Access Northern Access 2015 Clermont to Chippawa Total Capacity 1,060 MDth/d
Leaving the WDA
Lamont Compressor Clermont to Transco Total Capacity 390 to 590 MDth/d
Planned Projects
Clermont to Chippawa ~250,000 Clermont to Transco 300,000 – 500,000 Potential Capacity Additions 550,000 – 750,000
Potential Projects
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Pipeline & Storage
Expansion Project Revenue Growth
126
$4 $37 $59 $60 $65 $91
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200
2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est.) 2015 (Est.) 2016 (Est.) 2017 (Est.) 2018 (Est.) Expansion Project Revenue ($ Millions)
Fiscal Year
Annual Expansion Revenue
Projects Placed in Service Since Fiscal 2011
Larger projects under consideration for fiscal 2016 and 2017 will drive significant revenue growth
Analyst Day - November 2013 Midstream
Midstream Businesses
New Shale Production Driving Tremendous Growth
127
1,315 1,140 1,301 1,419 2,174 2,444 2,614 1,000 2,000 3,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Est.) 2015 (Est.) System Throughput (MDth per Day) Fiscal Year
Average Daily System Throughput of NFG’s Midstream Businesses
Doubling From Fiscal 2009 to 2015
Empire Throughput NFGSC Throughput NFG Midstream
Analyst Day - November 2013 Downstream 128
Utility Overview
Analyst Day - November 2013 Downstream
Utility
New York & Pennsylvania Service Territories
129
New York
Revenue Decoupling Weather Normalization Low Income Rates Choice Program/Purchase of Receivables Merchant Function Charge (Uncollectibles Adjustment) 90/10 Sharing (Large Customers)
Pennsylvania
Low Income Rates Choice Program/Purchase of Receivables Merchant Function Charge
Analyst Day - November 2013 Downstream
Utility
Customer Usage
130 80 90 100 110 120
Usage Per Account(1) (Mcf)
12-Months Ended Sept 30 15 20 25 30 35
Usage Per Account(1) (MMcf)
12-Months Ended Sept 30
Residential Usage Industrial Usage
(1) Weighted Average of New York and Pennsylvania service territories (assumes normal weather)Analyst Day - November 2013 Downstream
Utility
Continued Cost Control Helps Provide Earnings Stability
131
$178 $164 $167 $168 $168 $172 $25 $27 $14
$11
$9
$6
$203 $191 $181 $179 $177 $178
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
O&M Expense ($ Millions) Fiscal Year
All Other O&M Expenses O&M Uncollectible Expense
Analyst Day - November 2013 Downstream
Utility
Capital Spending Largely Focused on Maintenance
132
$44.4 $45.0 $44.3 $43.8 $48.1 $56.2 $58.0 $58.4 $58.3 $72.0 $80-$90 $80-$90 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast
Capital Expenditures ($ Millions)
Fiscal Year
Capital Expenditures for Safety Total Capital Expenditures The Utility remains focused
the ongoing safety and reliability of its system
Analyst Day - November 2013 Downstream
Utility
Providing Predictability and Stability
133 $164 $167 $169 $160 $172
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Adjusted EBITDA ($ Millions) Fiscal Year
The Utility has Delivered Consistent Results
Note: A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Income and Earnings is included at the end of this presentation.Analyst Day - November 2013 Downstream
Utility
Working Towards a Settlement in New York
134
March 27, 2013 Filed a plan with the NY PSC to adopt an earnings sharing and stabilization mechanism on earnings above a 9.96% ROE April 19, 2013 NY PSC issued an Order to Show Cause (OTSC) commencing a proceeding to establish “temporary rates” June 1, 2013 OTSC suggests “temporary rates” could become effective
An agreement in principle has been reached with five parties and the litigation schedule has been extended indefinitely to allow the settlement process to move forward
May 8, 2013 Company responds to OTSC June 14, 2013 “Temporary rates” become effective July 26, 2013 Settlement discussions commence for permanent rates
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate 135
Hedging Overview
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Hedging Overview
How Does Seneca Sell its Production?
136
Well Head
Interconnection with Interstate Pipeline Network Gathering System 3rd Party Marketer (or spot market) Firm Transport Demand Center (firm sales or spot market) Contracted Basis Differential FT Rate The 1,700 to 2,000 economic locations at less than $4.00/Mcf are based on a realized price after gathering Spot Market
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Hedging Overview
Firm Sales Provide a Market for Appalachian Production
137
NYMEX
202,745 Less: $0.284
NYMEX
149,091 Less: $0.281
NYMEX
150,000 Less: $0.257
Dominion
105,000 Less: $0.265
Dominion
95,000 Less: $0.305
Dominion
55,000 Less: $0.236
307,745 244,091 220,000
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Winter 2013/2014 Summer 2014 Winter 2014/2015 Long-Term Firm Sales(1) (MMBtu per Day)
Other (Transco) NYMEX Dominion South Point
Prices shown represent the sales (netback price) at the first non-affiliated interstate pipeline, including the cost of all related downstream transportation.
(1) Long-term firm sales represent gross volumes137
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Hedging Overview
Seneca Methodically Layers in Index Hedges Over Time
138
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fiscal 2014 Fiscal 2015 Fiscal 2016 Fiscal 2017 Fiscal 2018
% Hedged
Hedging Policy Range Oil Hedges Natural Gas Hedges
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Hedging Overview
Current Hedge Book has Seneca Positioned Very Well
139
66% 35% 30% 10% 3% 67% 31% 18% 14% 2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fiscal 2014 Fiscal 2015 Fiscal 2016 Fiscal 2017 Fiscal 2018
% Hedged
Hedging Policy Range Oil Hedges Natural Gas Hedges
(1) Hedge positions for fiscal years 2016-2018 reflect the midpoint of Seneca’s target annual production growth (20%) starting with the midpoint of Fiscal 2015 guidance (180-220 Bcfe)Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Commodity Risk Management
Oil & Natural Gas Hedges are Above the Current Strip(1)
140 $94.53 $89.81 $85.57 $83.12 $81.67 $94.00 $88.00 $84.00 $82.00 $81.00 $4.25 $4.27 $4.35 $4.45 $4.81 $3.81 $4.07 $4.22 $4.34 $4.44
$0.00 $2.50 $5.00 $7.50 $10.00 $0.00 $25.00 $50.00 $75.00 $100.00 $125.00
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Natural Gas Average Hedge Price ($/Mcf)
Oil Average Hedge Price ($ per Bbl)
Fiscal Year
Crude Oil (Average Hedge Price) Crude Oil (NYMEX Strip) Natural Gas (Average Hedge Price) Natural Gas (NYMEX Strip)
(1) Data as of November 13, 2013Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Hedging Overview
Determining Seneca’s Realized Price on Firm Sales
141
Realized Price = Firm Sales Reference Price +
Differential +
Hedging Gain/Loss
NYMEX & Dominion Monthly Settlement Prices Natural Gas Index Swaps Negotiated at time of Agreement Based on Current Market at Sales/Delivery Point
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
NYMEX
202,745 Less: $0.284
NYMEX
149,091 Less: $0.281
NYMEX
150,000 Less: $0.257
Dominion
105,000 Less: $0.265
Dominion
95,000 Less: $0.305
Dominion
55,000 Less: $0.236
307,745 244,091 220,000
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Winter 2013/2014 Summer 2014 Winter 2014/2015
Long-Term Firm Sales(1) (MMBtu per Day)
Hedging Overview
The Impact of Firm Sales on Realized Price
142
(1) Long-term firm sales represent gross volumesDetermining the Price of a Firm Sales Contract With a $4.25/MMBtu Hedge at the Reference Point
Contract Reference Point NYMEX Dominion
December Settlement
$4.000 $3.650
Less: Average Sales Basis Differential
($0.284) ($0.265)
Average Realized Price (Before Hedging)
$3.716 $3.235
142
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
NYMEX
202,745 Less: $0.284
NYMEX
149,091 Less: $0.281
NYMEX
150,000 Less: $0.257
Dominion
105,000 Less: $0.265
Dominion
95,000 Less: $0.305
Dominion
55,000 Less: $0.236
307,745 244,091 220,000
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Winter 2013/2014 Summer 2014 Winter 2014/2015
Long-Term Firm Sales(1) (MMBtu per Day)
Hedging Overview
Pairing Firm Sales with Hedges Leads to Price Certainty
143
(1) Long-term firm sales represent gross volumesDetermining the Price of a Firm Sales Contract With a $4.25/MMBtu Hedge at the Reference Point
Contract Reference Point NYMEX Dominion
December Settlement
$4.000 $3.650
Less: Average Sales Basis Differential
($0.284) ($0.265)
Average Realized Price (Before Hedging)
$3.716 $3.385
December Hedge
$4.250 $4.250
Less: December Settlement
$4.000 $3.650
Hedge Gain
$0.250 $0.600
143
Determining the Price of a Firm Sales Contract With a $4.25/MMBtu Hedge at the Reference Point
Contract Reference Point NYMEX Dominion
December Settlement
$4.000 $3.650
Less: Average Sales Basis Differential
($0.284) ($0.265)
Average Realized Price (Before Hedging)
$3.716 $3.385
December Hedge
$4.250 $4.250
Less: December Settlement
$4.000 $3.650
Hedge Gain
$0.250 $0.600
Average Realized Price (After Hedging)
$3.966 $3.985
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
NYMEX
202,745 Less: $0.284
NYMEX
149,091 Less: $0.281
NYMEX
150,000 Less: $0.257
Dominion
105,000 Less: $0.265
Dominion
95,000 Less: $0.305
Dominion
55,000 Less: $0.236
307,745 244,091 220,000
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Winter 2013/2014 Summer 2014 Winter 2014/2015
Long-Term Firm Sales(1) (MMBtu per Day)
Hedging Dominion Firm Sales Contracts With a $4.25/MMBtu Hedge at NYMEX vs. Dominion
Contract Reference Point Dominion
December Settlement
$3.650
Less: Average Sales Basis Differential
($0.265)
Average Realized Price (Before Hedging)
$3.385
Hedge Reference Point
Dominion
December Hedge
$4.250
Less: December Settlement
$3.650
Hedge Gain
$0.600
Average Realized Price (After Hedging)
$3.985
Hedging Dominion Firm Sales Contracts With a $4.25/MMBtu Hedge at NYMEX vs. Dominion
Contract Reference Point Dominion Dominion
December Settlement
$3.650 $3.650
Less: Average Sales Basis Differential
($0.265) ($0.265)
Average Realized Price (Before Hedging)
$3.385 $3.385
Hedge Reference Point
NYMEX Dominion
December Hedge
$4.250 $4.250
Less: December Settlement
$4.000 $3.650
Hedge Gain
$0.250 $0.600
Average Realized Price (After Hedging)
$3.635 $3.985
Hedging Overview
Price Certainty only if Firm Sales & Hedge Index Match
144
(1) Long-term firm sales represent gross volumesDominion to NYMEX Basis
144
Difference: $0.35
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
Hedging Overview
FY 2014 Production – Firm Sales & Hedge Composition
145
125-143
50 Bcf 30 Bcf 25 Bcf 29 Bcf 30 60 90 120 150
EDA NYMEX Firm Sales EDA DOM Firm Sales EDA Spot Sales WDA Production Total East Division Production
Total Production (Bcfe)
Price Certainty 100% Hedged @ $4.24 /MMcf Price Certainty 92% Hedged @ $4.26/MMcf
Seneca has an additional 12.7 Bcf of NYMEX hedges to help mitigate commodity exposure
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate 146
Financial Overview
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
$164 $167 $169 $160 $172 $131 $121 $111 $137 $161 $30 $280 $327 $377 $397 $492 $581 $632 $668 $704 $852
$0 $250 $500 $750 $1,000 $1,250 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast
Adjusted EBITDA ($ Millions)
Fiscal Year
Exploration & Production Segment Gathering Segment Pipeline & Storage Segment Utility Segment Energy Marketing & Other
National Fuel Gas Company
Targeting Sustained Growth for the Next Five Years
147
Note: A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Income and Earnings is included at the end of this presentation.2014 – 2018
10-15% Forecasted EBITDA CAGR
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
National Fuel Gas Company
Capital Spending Adjusts to Capitalize on Opportunities
148
Note: A reconciliation to Capital Expenditures as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows is included at the end of this presentation. (1) Does not include the $34.9 MM Seneca Resources Corporation’s acquisition of Ivanhoe’s U.S.-based assets in California, as this was accounted for as an investment in subsidiaries on the Statement of Cash Flows, and was not included in the Exploration & Production segment’s Capital Expenditures$56 $58 $58 $58 $72 $80-$90 $80-$90 $53 $38 $129 $144 $56 $115- $135 $225- $275 $80 $55 $100- $150 $100- $150 $188 $398 $649 $694 $533 $550- $650 $650- $750
$307(1) $501 $854 $977 $717 $845- $1,025 $1,055- $1,265
$0 $250 $500 $750 $1,000 $1,250 $1,500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast 2015 Forecast
Capital Expenditures ($ Millions)
Fiscal Year
Exploration & Production Segment Gathering Segment Pipeline & Storage Segment Utility Segment Energy Marketing & Other
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
$835 +/- $940(1) +/- $175 +/- $347 +/- $935 +/- $1,160 +/- ~$125 ~$127
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500
$ Millions
Cash from Ops Change in Cash & Other New Financing CapEx Dividend
2015 Forecast
National Fuel Gas Company
Forecasting a Modest Outspend in 2014
2014 Forecast
149
(1) Forecasted cash from operations for Fiscal 2015 is projected assuming a 12.5% growth rate on 2014 forecasted resultsAnalyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
National Fuel Gas Company
Maintaining a Strong Balance Sheet
150
Shareholders’ Equity 57% Total Debt(1) 43%
$3.843 Billion
As of September 30, 2013
2.02 1.98 1.75 1.89 1.89 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Average Debt / Adjusted EBITDA
Fiscal Year
Debt / Adjusted EBITDA Capitalization
Note: A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income is included at the end of this presentation (1) Long-Term Debt of $1.649 billionAnalyst Day - November 2013 Corporate 6.5% 8.75% 4.9% 7.395% 7.375% $49
$500
3.75%
$300 $250 $500 $549 $50
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 Fiscal Year
National Fuel Gas Company
Strong Liquidity with an Investment Grade Rating
151
5.58%
Embedded Cost of Long-Term Debt
Moody’s Standard & Poor’s Fitch Ratings/ Outlook Baa1 Stable BBB Stable BBB+ Stable Liquidity ($Millions) Cash and Temporary Investments $ 65 Available Short-Term Credit Facilities $1,085 Total Short-term Liquidity $1,150
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
0% 4% 8% 12% 2009-2011 2010-2012 2011-2013
Annualized Return on Capital
Three-Year Annualized Return on Capital
NFG
2009-2011 2010-2012 2011-2013
National Fuel Gas Company
Focused on Delivering Strong Returns
152
2009-2011 2010-2012 2011-2013 NFG Percentile 81% 75% 88% (Fiscal Years) (Fiscal Years) (12-Months Ended 6/30)
Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
National Fuel Gas Company
Dividend Track Record
153
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00
Annual Dividend Rate Annual Rate at Fiscal Year End
Current Dividend Yield(1)
2.1%
Dividend Consistency
Consecutive Dividend Payments 111 Years Consecutive Dividend Increases 43 Years Current Annualized Dividend Rate $1.50 per Share
(1) As of November 14, 2013Analyst Day - November 2013 Corporate
National Fuel Gas Company
A History of Success & A Future of Opportunity
154
30% CAGR
Since 2009 Adjusted EBITDA Growth Production Growth Midstream Businesses EBITDA
10-15% CAGR
2014 to 2018 Adjusted EBITDA Growth
15-25% CAGR
2014 to 2018 Production Growth
10-15% CAGR
2014 to 2018 Midstream Businesses EBITDA A History of Success
10% CAGR
Since 2009
10% CAGR
Since 2009
Note: A reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income as presented on the Consolidated Statement of Income and Earnings is included at the end of this presentation.A Future of Opportunity
Analyst Day - November 2013 Appendix 155
Appendix
Analyst Day - November 2013 Appendix
Gathering
Historical Financials – 2010 & 2011
156
QTD ended QTD ended QTD ended QTD ended 12/31/2009 3/31/2010 6/30/2010 9/30/2010 FISCAL 2010 Operating Revenue 94 $ 843 $ 1,224 $ 1,237 $ 3,398 $ Operating Expenses: Operation & Maintenance Expense 143 344 398 484 1,369 Property, Franchise & Other Taxes 1 7 1
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization
153 104 386 144 480 552 588 1,764 Operating Income (50) $ 363 $ 672 $ 649 $ 1,634 $ Capital Expenditures 6,538 $ QTD ended QTD ended QTD ended QTD ended 12/31/2010 3/31/2011 6/30/2011 9/30/2011 FISCAL 2011 Operating Revenue 1,999 $ 2,974 $ 3,043 $ 3,235 $ 11,251 $ Operating Expenses: Operation & Maintenance Expense 437 535 435 437 1,844 Property, Franchise & Other Taxes 8 4 8 2 22 Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 173 159 161 168 661 618 698 604 607 2,527 Operating Income 1,381 $ 2,276 $ 2,439 $ 2,628 $ 8,724 $ Capital Expenditures 17,021 $
FISCAL 2010 FISCAL 2011
Analyst Day - November 2013 Appendix
Gathering
Historical Financials – 2012 & 2013
157
QTD ended QTD ended QTD ended QTD ended 12/31/2011 3/31/2012 6/30/2012 9/30/2012 FISCAL 2012 Operating Revenue 3,565 $ 3,346 $ 4,494 $ 6,069 $ 17,474 $ Operating Expenses: Operation & Maintenance Expense 493 534 633 780 2,440 Property, Franchise & Other Taxes 25 25 4 169 223 Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 166 167 444 913 1,690 684 726 1,081 1,862 4,353 Operating Income 2,881 $ 2,620 $ 3,413 $ 4,207 $ 13,121 $ Capital Expenditures 80,012 $ QTD ended QTD ended QTD ended QTD ended 12/31/2012 3/31/2013 6/30/2013 9/30/2013 FISCAL 2013 Operating Revenue 5,682 $ 8,222 $ 10,586 $ 10,291 $ 34,781 $ Operating Expenses: Operation & Maintenance Expense 943 1,027 1,311 1,447 4,728 Property, Franchise & Other Taxes 141 51 41 44 277 Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 680 1,062 1,064 1,138 3,944 1,764 2,140 2,416 2,629 8,949 Operating Income 3,918 $ 6,082 $ 8,170 $ 7,662 $ 25,832 $ Capital Expenditures 54,792 $
FISCAL 2012 FISCAL 2013
Analyst Day - November 2013 Appendix
National Fuel Gas Company
Comparable GAAP Financial Measure Slides and Reconciliations
158
This presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. For pages that contain non-GAAP financial measures, pages containing the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are provided in the slides that follow. The Company believes that its non-GAAP financial measures are useful to investors because they provide an alternative method for assessing the Company’s ongoing operating results, for measuring the Company’s cash flow and liquidity, and for comparing the Company’s financial performance to other
measures for the same purpose, and for planning and forecasting purposes. The presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is not meant to be a substitute for financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.
Analyst Day - November 2013 Appendix 159
Reconciliation of Exploration & Production West Division Adjusted EBITDA to Exploration & Production Segment Net Income ($ Thousands) FY 2013 Exploration & Production - West Division Adjusted EBITDA 215,042 $ Exploration & Production - All Other Divisions Adjusted EBITDA 277,341 Total Exploration & Production Adjusted EBITDA 492,383 $ Minus: Exploration & Production Net Interest Expense (38,244) Minus: Exploration & Production Income Tax Expense (95,317) Minus: Exploration & Production Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization (243,431) Exploration & Production Net Income 115,391 $ Exploration & Production Net Income 115,391 $ Pipeline & Storage Net Income 63,245 Gathering Net Income 13,321 Utility Net Income65,686
Energy Marketing Net Income4,589
Corporate & All Other Net Income(2,231)
Consolidated Net Income260,001 $
Analyst Day - November 2013 Appendix 160
Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Consolidated Net Income ($ Thousands) FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 Exploration & Production - West Division Adjusted EBITDA 171,572 $ 187,838 $ 187,603 $ 226,897 $ 215,042 $ Exploration & Production - East Division Adjusted EBITDA 57,179 $ 75,098 $ 175,392 $ 167,806 $ 283,509 $ Exploration & Production - All Other Divisions Adjusted EBITDA 50,960 64,526 14,462 2,426 (6,168) Total Exploration & Production Adjusted EBITDA 279,711 $ 327,462 $ 377,457 $ 397,129 $ 492,383 $ Total Adjusted EBITDA Exploration & Production Adjusted EBITDA 279,711 $ 327,462 $ 377,457 $ 397,129 $ 492,383 $ Pipeline & Storage Adjusted EBITDA 130,857 120,858 111,474 136,914 161,226 Gathering Adjusted EBITDA (141) 2,021 9,386 14,814 29,777 Utility Adjusted EBITDA 164,443 167,328 168,540 159,986 171,669 Energy Marketing Adjusted EBITDA 11,589 13,573 13,178 5,945 6,963 Corporate & All Other Adjusted EBITDA (5,434) 408 (12,346) (10,674) (9,920) Total Adjusted EBITDA 581,025 $ 631,650 $ 667,689 $ 704,114 $ 852,098 $ Total Adjusted EBITDA 581,025 $ 631,650 $ 667,689 $ 704,114 $ 852,098 $ Minus: Net Interest Expense (81,013) (90,217) (75,205) (82,551) (89,776) Plus: Other Income 9,762 6,126 5,947 5,133 4,697 Minus: Income Tax Expense (52,859) (137,227) (164,381) (150,554) (172,758) Minus: Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization (170,620) (191,199) (226,527) (271,530) (326,760) Minus: Impairment of Oil and Gas Properties (E&P) (182,811)Analyst Day - November 2013 Appendix 161
Reconciliation of Segment Capital Expenditures to Consolidated Capital Expenditures ($ Thousands) FY 2014 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 Forecast Capital Expenditures from Continuing Operations Exploration & Production Capital Expenditures 188,290 $ 398,174 $ 648,815 $ 693,810 $ 533,129 $ $550,000-650,000 Pipeline & Storage Capital Expenditures 52,504 37,894 129,206 144,167 56,144 $ $115,000-135,000 Gathering Segment Capital Expenditures 9,433 6,538 17,021 80,012 54,792 $ $100,000-150,000 Utility Capital Expenditures 56,178 57,973 58,398 58,284 71,970 $ $80,000-90,000 Energy Marketing, Corporate & All Other Capital Expenditures 396 773 746 1,121 1,062 $