North Island Presentation 4 September 2009 Richard Paling - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Richard Paling Consulting

Freight Movements in the Upper North Island

Presentation 4 September 2009

Richard Paling Consulting

Freight

• Key driver supporting economic growth
• Planning and management of freight
• Good information
• Role of NFDS
• Current patterns
• Likely future position

Richard Paling Consulting

General Approach

• Top down or bottom up
• Commodity based approach
• Need to understand current movements
• Sources of information

– Included retail and couriers

• Road, rail and coastal shipping main focus

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General Approach - Forecasting

• Individual commodity forecasts
• Range of sources of information
• Recognition of environmental impacts
• Modal splits
• Prediction of corridor movements

Richard Paling Consulting

Key National Findings

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National Findings

• Commodities identified cover about 70 per

cent of overall totals

– 152 million tonnes and 18 billion tonne-kms

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Modal Split by Commodity 2006-07

Mode Shares for Selected Commotities 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Liquid milk Dairy products Logs and chips Manufactured timber products Livestock (all by road) Meat Horticultural products Aggregate Coal Petroleum products Aluminium and steel Limestone, fertiliser, cement and other minerals Concrete (all by road) P e r c e n t

• f

t

• t

a l

Road Rail Coastal Shipping

Richard Paling Consulting

Summary of Regional Patterns

Total tonnes (millions) in 2006-07 Selected Commodities only

Northland/ Auckland Waikato/ Bay of Plenty Gisborne/ Hawke’s Bay Taranaki/ Manawatu- Wanganui/ Wellington Tasman/ Nelson/ Marlborough/ West Coast Canterbury Otago/ Southland Total Northland/ Auckland 33.3 3.5 0.5 1.6 0.4 0.9 0.7 40.7 Waikato/Bay of Plenty 7.1 32.6 0.8 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 42.2 Gisborne/ Hawke’s Bay 0.2 0.3 7.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 Taranaki/ Manawatu- Wanganui/ Wellington 0.3 0.7 0.4 17.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 19.1 Tasman/Nelson/ Marlborough/ West Coast 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.1 3.7 0.2 12.4 Canterbury 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 15.0 1.1 17.5 Otago/Southland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 11.6 12.5 Total 41.3 37.2 8.7 22.2 9.0 20.6 13.6 152.7

Patterns of movements for selected commodities 2006-07 (million tonnes)

• High flows for internal movements
• High level of interaction within “Golden Triangle”
• Flows from north North Island and Canterbury to south

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Forecasts for Future

• Overall growth to 2031 (25 years) is 70-75 %

– Between TERNZ and MOT forecasts

• Growth for rail and coastal shipping picking up broad

trends identified

– Recognises ETS but no specific intervention from Government – Growth for rail of about 70 % – Growth for coastal shipping of up to about 100%

• Both of these challenging but both less than GPS targets

since imply broadly constant modal splits

Richard Paling Consulting

Forecast Growth of Freight Movements

Total Freight Lifted (million tonnes)

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 2006 2011 2016 2031

Year Million tonnes

Retail and Couriers Other Metals & Minerals Limestone Fertiliser Cement, & Concrete Petroleum Coal Aggregate Horticulture Livestock & Meat Logs & Wood Products Milk and Dairy Products

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Forecast Growth in Traffic by Region

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

N

• r

t h l a n d A u c k l a n d W a i k a t

• B

a y

• f

P l e n t y G i s b

• r

n e H a w k e s B a y T a r a n a k i M a n a w a t u W e l l i n g t

• n

T a s m a n / M a r l b

• r
• u

g h W e s t C

• a

s t C a n t e r b u r y O t a g

• S
• u

t h l a n d

Total Flows Originiating in Region (m tonnes) 2006-07 2031

0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu Wellington Tasman/ Marlborough West Coast Canterbury Otago Southland

Total Flows Terminating in Region (m tonnes) 2006-07 2031

Origins of Traffic Destinations of Traffic

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The Position for the Upper North Island

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The UNI Position - 1

• NFDS database
• Three types of movements

– Internal flows within each of the regions – Flows between the regions – Movements to and from other regions

• Modal splits

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The UNI Position - 2

Breakdown of UNI Traffic by Type (million tonnes in 2006-07)

85.7 27.8 12.6 Intra Regional Inter regional To/from other regions

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Movements within Regions in 2006-07

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 M i l l i

• n

T

• n

n e s Northland Auckland Waikato BOP Dairy Products Logs and Timber Products Meat and Livestock Horticulture Petroleum Coal Aggregate Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Other Minerals and Metals Retailing and Couriers

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Patterns of Inter-Regional Flows to/from Auckland 2006-07 (tonnes)

• Importance of

movements to/from Waikato and Northland

• Longer distance

flows also important

– Auckland as manufacturing and national distribution hub – Consumer of goods

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Movements to/from Auckland - 1 (tonnes)

Freight Movements by Corridor to/from Auckland for Identified Commodities 2006-07 (million tonnes)

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 Northland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South

Million tonnes in 2006-07

Dairy Products Logs and Timber Products Meat and Livestock Horticulture Petroleum Coal Aggregate Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Other Minerals and Metals Retailing and Couriers

Richard Paling Consulting

Movements to/from Auckland 2

tonne-kms

Freight Movements by Corridor to/from Auckland for Identified Commodities 2006-07 (billion tonne-kms)

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 Northland Auckland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South

Tonne-kms (Billions)

Dairy Products Logs and Timber Products Meat and Livestock Horticulture Petroleum Coal Aggregate Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Other Minerals and Metals Retailing and Couriers

Richard Paling Consulting

Current Modal Splits by Corridor Auckland 1

Modal Splits in Key Corridors to and from Auckland 2006-07 (Rail and Coastal Shipping as per cent of total tonnages)

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% N

• r

t h l a n d W a i k a t

• B

O P / G i s b

• r

n e H a w k e s B a y T a r a n a k i S

• u

t h T

• t

a l T

• t

a l I n t e r r e g i

• n

a l

% by Rail or Coastal Ship Rail 2006-07 Coastal Ship 2006-07

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Patterns of flows to / from Waikato

• Strong links with

Auckland and BOP (the Golden Triangle)

• Limited linkages

further south

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Movements to and from Waikato

Traffic to/from Waikato for Key Commodities Corridors and Commodities

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 Auckland/Northland BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South

Million tonnes in 2006-07

Dairy Products Logs and Timber Products Meat and Livestock Horticulture Petroleum Coal Aggregate Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Other Minerals and Metals Retailing and Couriers

Richard Paling Consulting

Future Growth to 2031

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The UNI Position – Change to 2031

85.7 27.8 12.6 Intra Regional Inter regional To/from other regions

136.8 57.2 17.8 Intra-Reg 60% Inter-Reg 106% To/From Outside 41% Growth

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Future Growth in Auckland –1

• Forecasts of future growth to 2031

– Based on Business as usual assumptions

Total Growth in Freight Flows by Corridor (billion tonne-kms)

Corridor 2006-07 2031 Total Growth Northland 0.81 2.16 168% Auckland 0.77 1.02 32% Waikato 1.41 3.37 139% BOP/Gisborne 0.68 0.95 40% Hawkes Bay 0.20 0.30 52% Taranaki 0.12 0.13 16% South 3.25 4.17 28% Total 7.24 12.11 67% Total Interregional 6.47 11.09 72%

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Future Growth in Auckland –2

Forecast Growth of Internal and Inter-Regional Freight Traffic by Corridor (tonne-kms)

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 Northland Auckland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Total Total Interregional

Billion tonne-kms 2006-07 2031

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Future Flows by Commodity

Traffic to/from Auckland for Key Commodities 2031 Corridors and Commodities (tonne-kms)

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00

N

• r

t h l a n d A u c k l a n d W a i k a t

• B

O P / G i s b

• r

n e H a w k e s B a y T a r a n a k i S

• u

t h T

• t

a l T

• t

a l I n t e r r e g i

• n

a l

Million tonnes in 2031

Dairy Products Logs and Timber Products Meat and Livestock Horticulture Petroleum Coal Aggregate Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Other Minerals and Metals Retailing and Couriers

Richard Paling Consulting

Modal Split Changes for Auckland

tonne-kms

Change in Modal Splits by Corridor 2006-07 to 2031

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Northland Auckland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Total Total Interregional Per Cent of Corridor Flows Rail 2006-07 Rail 2031 Coastal Shipping 2006-07 Coastal Shipping 2031

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Key National Findings

• Movements in tonnage terms dominated by

small number of commodities

– Milk and dairy, logs and wood products and aggregates 60 % of total for selected commodities

• Typically low value products seeking to minimise the

distances travelled

• Smaller share of tonne-kms – 44% of total- but still

substantial

– Longer distance flows for retail and courier, petroleum, coal and horticulture

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Findings for Upper North Island Flows

• Has high share of national traffic
• Substantial growth of internal flows
• Very substantial growth inter-regional flows with

strong Auckland focus

• Limited changes in modal shares without

interventions

– substantial growth in traffic

• Increasing demands on transport networks
• Planning for freight is important