Public Open Houses December 9, 11, and 12, 2013 Tonight's Speaker - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

COOK COUNTY REGIONAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN

Public Open Houses

December 9, 11, and 12, 2013

• Rob Flaner – Hazard Mitigation Plan Technical Lead,

Tetra Tech, Inc.

• Technical consultant to Cook County Department of

Homeland Security and Emergency Management (DHSEM)

• Former Federal Emergency Management Agency

(FEMA) employee

• Facilitated 30 successful mitigation planning efforts

since 2003

Tonight's Speaker

• What is Mitigation?
• The Disaster Mitigation Act (DMA) of 2000
• Cook County’s response to the DMA
• The plan development
• The County Risk Assessment
• Residents role in this open house

What are we going to talk about?

What is Mitigation?

Preparedness Mitigation Response Recovery “Sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate long-term risk to life and property” (Prevention)

What is the Disaster Mitigation Act?

• Federal legislation that establishes a pre-disaster hazard

mitigation program and new requirements for the national post-disaster Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP)

• Acts as the keyway to federal funding
• Very simple Premise:

No Plan, No Money!

Provisions of the DMA

• Encourages and rewards local and state

pre-disaster planning

• Promotes sustainability
• Seeks to strengthen statewide hazard mitigation

through encouraging the integration of state and local planning

• Results in faster more efficient allocation of funding

and more effective risk reduction projects

So Why Plan?

• Establish / maintain eligibility for grant funds
• Preparedness: pro-active vs. reactive
• Sustainability
• Key element in emergency management
• Can set the course for response and recovery to

impacts from natural disasters

• Requires commitment and support from both the

political faction and your constituency

What is Required in a DMA Plan?

According to Section 201.6, 44CFR, an approved plan must:

• Engage the public through all phases of the plan’s

development

• A review and incorporation of plans and programs

that can support/enhance hazard mitigation

• Assess risk to natural hazards that impact a planning

area

• Identify a plan maintenance strategy
• Identify and prioritize actions

Multi-Jurisdictional Plan

• Preferred format by FEMA
• Identifies/creates the partnerships that enhance grant

funding opportunities

• For multi-jurisdictional plans, all partners must:

– Participate in the process – Rank Risk – Perform a capability assessment – Identify/Prioritize jurisdiction specific actions

• Plan will cover

approximately 115 Municipalities within Cook County

• City of Chicago is a

Stake-holder rather than a Planning Partner

The Planning Partnership

The Work Plan

• We will follow a 7-phase process modeled after FEMA’s

Community Rating System (CRS) planning process

• Develop templates directly specific to multi-jurisdictional

HMPs

• Two-volume approach for multi-jurisdictional plans

– Volume I – Planning Area (Parent Plan) – Volume II – Jurisdictional Specific Annexes

Phase 1-Organize Resources

• Organize Planning Partners
• Steering Committee
• Agency coordination
• Program review

Phase 2-Risk Assessment

• Data Acquisition/Format
• Critical facilities
• Natural hazards analysis
• Non-natural hazards analysis
• Scenarios

Phase 3-Public Involvement Strategy

• Survey/Questionnaire
• Website
• Press releases
• Public meetings

Phase 4-Goals, Objectives and Actions

• Mission Statement
• Goals and Objectives
• Alternatives analysis (mitigation

catalog)

• SWOO

Phase 5-Plan Maintenance Strategy

• Progress reporting
• Continuing public involvement
• 5-year update

Phase 6-Write the plan

• Jurisdictional Annex workshop
• Write the plan
• Technical/format edit

Phase 7-Plan Review/Adoption

• HMP review tool
• Pre-adoption plan submittal
• Plan adoption

Steering Committee

• A 27 member Steering Committee is overseeing the

plan update

• Has multi-disciplined representation

Planning Partner representative(s) Stakeholders (Business, academia, government) State Agencies Federal Agencies Emergency Management

• Has met 5 times since July
• All meetings are open to the public

The Vision Statement

• “Utilize the best available science and technology to

identify risks and through partnerships identify sustainable cost-effective actions and strategies to mitigate the impacts and reduce vulnerabilities to natural hazards in order to protect the health, safety, welfare, and economy of the communities of Cook County.”

Goals and Objectives

• The Steering Committee has identified 6 goals and 14
• bjectives that will help achieve the guiding principle
• All of these planning components are linear
• These are posted on the Hazard Mitigation Plan

website

The Cook County Risk Assessment

What is Risk?

Risk is defined as a function of:

Hazard

• Source of potential danger or adverse

condition

Exposure

• Manmade or natural features that are

exposed to the hazard

Vulnerability, and

• Damage susceptibility of the exposed

features

Capability

• Regulatory capability
• Technical capability
• Financial capability

Risk Reduction

To reduce Risk:

Manipulate the Hazard:

• Structural flood control

Reduce Exposure:

• Property acquisition

Reduce Vulnerability:

• Retrofitting

Increase capability:

• $, preparation, technical

assistance, and planning

Development of the Cook County Risk Assessment

1. Hazard Locators (Soils, floodplains, landslides) 2. Inventories (Buildings, roads, critical areas) 3. Exposure (Direct and Indirect) 4. Disaster Scenario (Vulnerability assessments) 5. Suggest Risk Reduction Measures 5 1

Risk Assessment Methodology

 Assess hazard

• Past events
• Areas most affected
• Frequency
• Severity
• Warning time for response

 Determine Exposure  Assess Vulnerability

• Loss Estimation

What is HAZUS?

• HAZUS-MH is a powerful risk assessment

methodology for analyzing potential losses from floods, hurricane winds, and earthquakes

• HAZUS outputs include:
• Number, location, types, and occupancy of vulnerable buildings
• Actual or assessed values of the vulnerable buildings
• Critical facilities
• An estimate of losses per hazard
• Debris accumulation

The Hazards of Concern

Hazards :

Flood (Riverine/Urban) Earthquakes Tornados Severe weather (Heat, Wind, Hail, Lightning) Severe Winter Weather (Snow/Ice) Drought Dam/levee Failure Other Hazards-(pandemic, nuclear power

plants, evacuees from other counties moving into Cook County, power outages, and hazardous material incidents)

These other hazards will be profiled but not assessed (analyzed)

• 13 Presidentially declared flood

disasters since 1967

• Minor flooding annually
• Major flooding every 3 to 5 years
• Two types of flooding:

– Riverine – Urban Drainage

• Basis for risk assessment

– FEMA – MWRD

• Basement flooding will be assessed

looking at historical damages

FLOODS

Earthquake

The impact of an earthquake is largely a function of the following:

Ground Shaking (ground motion accelerations) Liquefaction (soil stability) Distance from the source of the quake

EQ Source-Faults

• Fault—A fracture in the

earth’s crust along which two blocks of the crust have slipped with respect to each

• ther
• There are faults traces within

Cook County

• Largest recorded event in

Illinois was a 5.1 event in 1909

• Cook County has had 2 events

(1911 and 1925)

Earthquake

The Earthquake risk assessment has been developed using the following tools:

Shake maps that illustrate recorded ground motion potential in terms of “peak ground acceleration” (PGA)

• We have used these shake maps to run 5 scenario events
• 100 year probabilistic event
• 500 year probabilistic event
• 7.1 scenario event on the Wabash Fault
• 1909 scenario event (7 miles southwest of Lemont)

Soils mapping illustrating soils characteristics

Earthquakes

Earthquake risk has been assessed using the following methods: Probabilistic: – 100 year PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration) 40% chance in 50 years – 500 year PGA 10% chance in 50 years Method uses information from all historic earthquakes, plus geologically inferred earthquake sources (faults, locations, and magnitudes), and computes the probable ground shaking levels that may be experienced during a 100-year or 500-year recurrence period

Earthquake

Mercalli Scale and Peak Ground Acceleration Comparison

MM PERCEIVED SHAKING POTENTIAL DAMAGE PEAK ACC (%g) I - IV Weak - Light None .17% - 3.9% V Moderate Very Light 3.9%-9.2% VI Strong Light 9.2%-18% VII Very Strong Moderate 18%-34% VIII Severe Moderate/Heavy 35%-65% IX Violent Heavy 65%-124% X Extreme Very Heavy >124%

Liquefaction

• Liquefaction: Liquefaction is

the complete failure of soils,

• ccurring when soils lose

shear strength and flow horizontally; it is most likely to occur in fine grain sands and silts, which behave like viscous fluids when liquefaction occurs

Tornados

• A tornado is a violently rotating

column of air that is in contact with both the surface of the earth and a cumulonimbus cloud

• Illinois is situated on the

northeast edge of "tornado alley"

• Caused by interface between

warm, moist air from the Gulf

• f Mexico and cold air from

Canada

• Officially, there have been

2,103 tornadoes in Illinois from 1950 through August 30, 2007

NOAA Tornado Database Assessor’s Building Database

Location, size, intensity, loss Location, value, type

Historical tornado loss and building inventory produce loss functions based

• n wind speed.

Location, size, intensity, # of events

Historical Event Modeled Event

52 historical storms over 63 years analyzed in a GIS model to identify 100- and 500-year tornado intensity, size, and location.

Location, value, type

Modeled wind speed in tornado zone Tornado damage function Inventory data

+ + =

Tornado Loss

Severe Winter Weather

• 100% of the Cook County population is at risk from severe

winter storms

• 3 Categories:

– Blizzard: This is the most dangerous of all winter storms; a blizzard combines low temperatures, heavy snowfall and winds of at least 35 miles per hour, reducing visibility to only a few yards – Heavy Snow Storm: Will produce six inches or more of snow in 48 hours or less – Ice Storm: Occurs when moisture falls and freezes immediately upon impact

• Worst storm on record: January 1967; 23” of snow in 48

hours, 50 deaths; 2nd worst occurred in February 2011

Severe Weather

• This assessment will cover:

– heat – straight line winds – hail – lightning

• Cook County has averaged over

50 significant severe weather events per year since 2000

• Highest probability of occurrence
• Vulnerability is difficult to gauge
• Diverse range of mapping used to

assess this hazard

• Great heat wave of 1995: over

750 deaths in 5 days

Drought

• A drought originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended

period of time; usually a season or more

• There are four commonly used operational definitions:

– Meteorological Drought: A period of well-below-average precipitation that spans from a few months to a few years – Agricultural Drought: A period when soil moisture is inadequate to meet the demands for crops to initiate and sustain plant growth – Hydrological Drought: A period of below-average stream flow and/or depleted reservoir storage (i.e., stream flow, reservoir and lake levels, ground water) – Economic Drought: This definition deals with the supply and demand of water; some years there is an ample supply of water and in other years there is not enough to meet human and environmental needs

• The most severe drought in recent years was 1988, when rainfall was 88

percent of normal

• Although exposure is High…
• …Vulnerability to drought is Low

Dam Failure

• Dam—Any artificial barrier or controlling mechanism that can or does

impound 10 acre-feet or more of water

• Dam Failure—An uncontrolled release of impounded water due to structural

deficiencies in the water barrier

• 34 regulated Dams within the County
• 10 are listed as “high hazard”
• The risk assessment will focus on those facilities for which mapping is

available

Maps of dam failure inundation areas have not been presented for security purposes.

What about Climate Change?

• The Risk Assessment will address climate change in

the context of its potential impacts on each of the assessed hazards

• Each hazard profile will contain discussion on the

potential changes in impacts from that hazard due to climate change

• This will be a subjective profile

Residents Role in this Open House

• View the information provided at each hazard

specific table

• Provide feedback to the Planning Team on your

perception of the risk; Does it appear accurate? Does it support what you may have experienced?

• Educate yourself on risk exposure based on the data

provided

• Complete a survey
• Visit the mapping workstation

For More Information

Please visit the County website at:

http://www.cookcountyhomelandsecurity.org/hazard-mitigation-plan/

This site includes:

• FAQs
• Steering Committee meeting agendas/minutes
• Bulletins
• Press releases

QUESTIONS