REBEKAH FINE AND CORINNE PARENTI DECEMBER 2018 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

REBEKAH FINE AND CORINNE PARENTI DECEMBER 2018 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS - POLICE DATA 2007-2017

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RESEARCH QUESTIONS:

• Did the number of arrests for Israelis from Ethiopian origin change during the

years 2007 - 2017?

• Does the data reveal a possible “discrimination” by the police against Israelis

from Ethiopian origin?

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TOUGHER POLICE OR SIGN OF DISCRIMINATION

Number of cases opened on Individuals from Ethiopian Origin for Attacks on Police (by year)

200 325 450 575 700 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

593 544 600 608 489 531 499 419 419 383 352

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ANALYSIS BY CITIES - ATTACKS ON POLICE

Rate of change between 2007-2015 and 2015-2017 average yearly number of cases for Ethiopians and all Jews

• 0.35

0.35 0.7 1.05 1.4

Israel Beit Shemesh Ashdod Bat Yam Jerusalem Petach Tikva Lod Beer Sheva Kiriat Melachim Kiriat Gad Haifa Rishon Ramle Tel Avi Ashkelon Rechovot Hadera Netanya

Ethiopians All Jews

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ACTUAL AND EXPECTED NUMBER OF CASES AGAINST ETHIOPIAN ATTACKS ON POLICE

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ANALYSIS BY CITIES - ALL CRIMES

Rate of change between 2007-2015 and 2015-2017 average yearly number of cases for Ethiopians and all Jews

• 0.35
• 0.175

0.175 0.35 0.525 0.7

All Tel Aviv Rishon Netanya Rechovot Holon Petach Tikva Ashdod Haifa Jerusalem Beer Sheva Ashkelon Hadera Beit Shemesh Ramle Bat Yam Kiriat Melachim Lod Kiriat Gad

Ethiopians All Jews

PRELIMINARY FINDINGS

• After 2014, the number of cases opened against Ethiopians increased by more than 25% for

“Attack on Police” and by 20% for all crimes

• The increase in the number of cases filed after 2015, cannot be fully explained by a change in

demographics among the Ethiopian population

• The increase in the number of cases filed after 2015, cannot also be explained by a change in

police “productivity” that would have had similar effects on the Ethiopians and Non- Ethiopians

• Some cities seem to have more discriminatory policies against Ethiopians than other. The worst

are Beit Shemesh, Bat Yam, Lod, Ashdod, and Haifa. The best are Ashkelon and Netanya

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8 FURTHER RESEARCH

▸ Analysis of all types of crime ▸ Correcting for possible bias: age, gender, education,

income across the Israeli-Ethiopians and other Jews at the national and city level to make results statistically stronger