Preliminary Statement of Results 2016
February 2017
Statement of Results 2016 February 2017 Disclaimer: Forward Looking - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Preliminary Statement of Results 2016 February 2017 Disclaimer: Forward Looking Statements This presentation/announcement may contain forward looking statements with projections regarding, among other things, the Groups strategy, revenues,
February 2017
This presentation/announcement may contain forward looking statements with projections regarding, among other things, the Group’s strategy, revenues, earnings, trading profit, trading margin, finance costs, tax rate, capital expenditure, dividends, cash flow, net debt or other financial measures, the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations, the impact of raw material fluctuations and other competitive pressures. These and other forward looking statements reflect management expectations based on currently available data. However, actual results will be influenced by, among other things, macro-economic conditions, food industry supply and demand issues, foreign exchange fluctuations, raw material and commodity fluctuations, the successful acquisition and integration of new businesses, the successful execution of business transformation programmes and other, as of today, unknown factors. Therefore actual results may differ materially from these projections. These forward looking statements speak only as of the date they were made and the Group undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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Outlook and Future Prospects
Stan McCarthy, CEO
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Review of Business
Stan McCarthy, CEO
Financial Review
Brian Mehigan, CFO
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REVIEW OF BUSINESS
4
competitive environment
accelerating innovation
pervasive
Innovation investment winning
performance despite currency volatility
RETURNS GROWTH
Adjusted* EPS
+12.3% constant currency growth
Volume
Outperforming our markets
Trading Margin
Growth ahead of plan
ROACE*
Ahead of target
Free Cash Flow
Record year
Dividends
CAGR of 17.2% over 30 years
Note: * before brand related intangible asset amortisation and non-trading items (net of related tax)
HIGHLIGHTS
REVIEW OF BUSINESS
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wellness, clean-label and convenience driving product differentiation and increased product churn
increased market fragmentation
catalyst for product launches at regional level
economic conditions
volatility
consumption drives demand for Taste & Nutrition
innovation for snacking and ‘out-of-home’
continue to impact growth in some geographies
growth in Asian Taste & Nutrition end-use- markets
regional growth
DEVELOPING MARKETS DEVELOPED MARKETS MARKETPLACE DYNAMICS
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REVIEW OF BUSINESS
Volume +3.6% Margin +70bps
GROUP
Volume +4.0% Margin +60bps
TASTE & NUTRITION
Volume +2.1% Margin +30bps
CONSUMER FOODS
extension in all regions
consumers
customer partnership agreements
business quality
REVIEW OF BUSINESS
QUARTERLY VOLUME GROWTH 2016 2016 GR GROWTH Revenue €4,880m +4.0%* Trading profit €716m +8.1% Trading margin 14.7% +60bps
Note: * volume growth 7
3.1% 3.8% 3.3% 5.4%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 2016
REVIEW OF BUSINESS
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markets in North America and improved performance in Latin America
Beverage, Meat, Savoury and Functional Ingredients
Mexico solid performance
well
effectiveness and engagement across customer base delivers encouraging results
– impacted by deflationary environment – good growth in Dairy and Beverage – Sweet & Cereal demand weak
well, South Africa and Middle East challenging but early signs of recovery
regional developing markets
Foodservice key drivers of regional growth
regional growth
– Tianning Flavours in China – Taste Master in Australia to be completed by end of Q1 2017
ASIA-PACIFIC EMEA AMERICAS
3.9% 0.7% 10.7% 4.0% AMERICAS EMEA APAC T&N
VOLUME GROWTH BY REGION
Business Growth By Region
REVENUE
€2,589m
3.9% VOLUME GROWTH
REVENUE
€1,447m
0.7% VOLUME GROWTH
REVENUE
€765m
10.7% VOLUME GROWTH
REVIEW OF BUSINESS AMERICAS EMEA ASIA-PACIFIC
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54% 30% 16%
Developed
Developing
TECHNOLOGY
+3.5%
Savoury & Dairy Systems & Flavours
+8.4%
Beverage Systems & Flavours
+9.3%
Pharma/Functional Ingredients
(3.6%)
Cereal & Sweet Systems & Flavours Regional Ingredients 25% Beverage 17% Meats 9% Dairy 8% Bakery 7% Soups, Sauces & Dressings 5% Confectionery 5% Cereal & Bars 5% Ice-cream & Desserts 5% Prepared Meals & Sides 5% Savoury Snacks 5% Pharma 2% Appetisers 2% Others
END-USE-MARKET
Year On Year Volume Growth Revenue By End-Use-Market
uncertainty
and discounters
than offset by currency and 2015 disposals
business portfolio
you’ products
REVIEW OF BUSINESS DAIRY
growth
‘spreadable’ butter
MEAT PRODUCTS
MEAL SOLUTIONS
foodservice and ‘direct-to-consumer’ channels
2016 2016 GR GROWTH Revenue €1,333m +2.1%* Trading profit €117m (6.7%) Trading margin 8.8% +30bps
Note: * volume growth 10
QUARTERLY VOLUME GROWTH
2.1% 2.5% 2.1% 1.7% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 2016
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FINANCIAL REVIEW
Revenue
Trading Profit
Adjusted EPS
Brian Mehigan, CFO
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FINANCIAL REVIEW
Sources: Kerry estimates, FAO annual food price index | * R&D spend as a % of divisional revenue
VOLUME GROWTH
1.5% 3.6% Market Kerry
RAW MATERIAL PRICES MARGIN GROWTH
9.6% 12.2%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
+260bps
R&D INVESTMENT* TASTE & NUTRITION
4.3% 4.7% 5.1% 2014 2015 2016 2007 2016
FINANCIAL REVIEW
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3-4% of Group Revenue net euro – sterling exposure
TRANSACTION EFFECT – EURO – STERLING EXPOSURE
1% EPS headwind in FY 2016 5% EPS headwind in FY 2016
TRANSLATION EFFECT – YOY RATES
(5%) (7%) (1%) (9%) (16%) (12%) (3%) (18%) (4%) 1%
CNY MYR AUD RUB ZAR STG BRL MXN CAD USD
€6.1bn
GROUP REVENUE
FINANCIAL REVIEW
Note: * before brand related intangible asset amortisation and non-trading items (net of related tax) | ** expressed as a percentage of adjusted earnings after tax 14
REVENUE TRADING PROFIT TRADING MARGIN ADJUSTED EPS* BASIC EPS FREE CASH FLOW
+3.6% volume growth +7.1% +70bps +7.1%
(+12.3% constant currency)
+1.4% 100% conversion**
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FINANCIAL REVIEW
€6,131m
2016
0.4% 3.6%
Volume
€6,105m
2015
3.6%
Volume
(0.3%)
Transaction currency
(2.1%)
Price
3.3%
Acquisition/ disposal
(4.1%)
Translation currency
FINANCIAL REVIEW
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GROUP VOLUME GROWTH BY QUARTER
2.9% 3.5% 3.1% 5.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 2016
€6,131 €4,880 €1,333
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Group Taste & Nutrition Consumer Foods €m
+1.0%
+2.1%
Kerry volume growth Market volume growth*
+1.5%
+3.6%
+1.7%
+4.0%
* Kerry estimates
FINANCIAL REVIEW
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GROUP
Note: * base year for current 5 year plan | 2012 restated due to adoption of IAS 19 (2011) ‘Employee Benefits’
TASTE & NUTRITION CONSUMER FOODS
€750 €716 €117
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Group Taste & Nutrition Consumer Foods €m
12.2% +70 bps 14.7% +60 bps 8.8% +30 bps
Margin progression Trading margin %
9.6% 12.2%
2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016
+260bps
12.0% 14.7%
2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016
+270bps
7.7% 8.8%
2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016
+110bps
FINANCIAL REVIEW
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€700m
€750m
FY 2015 Portfolio mix
efficiencies Net price R&D investment Kerryconnect Currency Acquisitions/disposals FY 2016
Margin 11.5% +0.5% +0.3% (0.3%) +0.1% (0.1%) +0.2% +12.2%
FINANCIAL REVIEW
Note: * before brand related intangible asset amortisation and non-trading items (net of related tax) 19 142.4 151.8 163.9 192.1 213.4 234.0 257.9 278.9 301.9 323.4 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EPS* ROACE* ROACE % EPS* CENT
12.9% 11.1%
FINANCIAL REVIEW
Note: * free cash flow as a % of adjusted earnings after tax 20
2016 2016 2015 €m €m Trading profit 750 700 Depreciation (net) 130 126 Movement in average working capital 137 (2) Pension contributions paid less pension expense (118) (57) Cash inflow from operations 899 899 767 Finance costs (62) (47) Taxation (57) (38) Capital expenditure (net) (210) (229) Free cash flo low 570 570 453 453 Cash conversion* 100% 85%
FINANCIAL REVIEW
Note: * calculated in accordance with lender covenants | ** before brand related intangible asset amortisation and non-trading items (net of related tax) 21
Banking Ratios Covenant 2016 2015
Net debt: EBITDA* Max 3.5x 1.5x 1.9x EBITDA: net interest* Min 4.75x 14.0x 17.3x
Return Ratios Target
ROACE** 12% 12.9% 13.6% ROAE** 15% 16.5% 17.5% CFROI 12% 12.8% 11.3%
(554) 156 144 85 688 805
2016 2017 2020 2022 2023 2025
FINANCIAL REVIEW
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2016 2015 Weighted average maturity years 6.4 7.5
FINANCIAL REVIEW
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Business model and footprint well positioned to take advantage of opportunities Manufacturing locations – 25 UK | 25 Eurozone 40 US | 11 LATAM Continuing currency headwinds due to weaker sterling Deflationary year – main drivers being decreases in dairy, grains and spices Moving to inflation – increases in dairy, protein, naturals, botanicals and vanilla Additional cash contributions made in the year of €66m – de-risking pension plans Deficit €292m – up from previous year due to decrease in discount rates Increase of €1.1m to €70.4m principally due to €0.9bn acquisition spend in 2015, offset by reduction in pension interest and strong cash generation EMEA & Asia – progressing into optimisation phase Focus moving to Americas Enhanced scope being clarified
Finance Costs Pension Kerryconnect Raw Materials Brexit/US Policy Currency
Acquisition integration and disposal cost €13.0m (2015: +€13.1m)
Non-trading Items
Stan McCarthy, CEO
Connected
Consumers
Transparent Global but Local Health & Wellbeing Millennials
OUTLOOK AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
Taste Nutrition Industry Dynamics Foodservice E-commerce Developing Markets
Pure & Simple Authentic & Familiar Pleasure & Indulgence Fresh & Invigorating Free from Better-for-you Good-for-you Tailored-for-you Clean label Economic Growth Globalisation/ Nationalism Channel Disruption Currency Volatility Raw Materials Food-on-the-go Snacking Fresh & Clean Customisation Premiumisation Indulgence Digital Connected Convenience Home Delivery On Trend Demographics Food Security Consumerism
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Geopolitical Urbanisation Economic Growth
OUTLOOK AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
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Market Leadership
Taste & Nutrition Consumer Foods Holistic Partnerships Sustainability 1 Kerry
Taste Nutrition & General Wellness Developing Markets
Consumer Channel Customer Geography
#1 #1
Global, Regional, Local Market, Customer, Consumer
Taste & Nutrition Consumer Foods
‘in-market’ Development & Application Centres
applications expertise and consumer insights
RD&A investment | End-use-market focus | Technology leadership | Proven capability/people | Delivery for global, regional and local customers | Developing market footprint | Retail, Foodservice, Direct-to-consumer focus
Scalable Model – foundations for strong organic and acquisition growth
OUTLOOK AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
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Cereal & Bars Ice-cream & Desserts Prepared Meals & Sides Savoury Snacks Pharma Appetisers Others
END-USE-MARKET TASTE & NUTRITION MARKET POSITIONS TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION CENTRE NETWORK
Beverage Meats Dairy Bakery Soups, Sauces & Dressings Confectionery
TECHNOLOGY REGION
Savoury & Dairy Science Beverage Science Cereal & Sweet Science Pharma & Functional Regional Ingredients Americas EMEA Asia-Pacific Developed Developing
Unique Taste & Nutrition growth model supported by:
& Actives
Research capability
Proteins
REVENUE
OUTLOOK AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
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Beloit Campinas San Juan del Rio Shanghai Singapore Naas
Global and Regional Technology & Innovation Centres Manufacturing Plants Sales Offices
Manufacturing Footprint
Australia Belarus Brazil Canada China Costa Rica Denmark France Germany Guatemala India Indonesia Ireland Italy Malaysia Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Panama Philippines Poland South Africa South Korea Spain Thailand Turkey UK USA
800+ Connected Kerry R&D Scientists Global & Regional Technology & Innovation Centres In-market Development & Application Centres, Customer Centres Leading RD&A investment supports future growth
OUTLOOK AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
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LATAM EMEA ASIA-PACIFIC
2008
2011
customer base
OUTLOOK AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
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FUNCTIONAL & NUTRITIONAL INGREDIENTS TASTE SOLUTIONS DAIRY & CULINARY SYSTEMS MEAT SYSTEMS AUTHENTIC CULINARY FOUNDATIONS CEREAL SYSTEMS SWEET SYSTEMS BEVERAGE SYSTEMS
Natural Preservation Systems Specialty Proteins & Starches Enzymes Natural Fermentates Emulsifiers & Texturants Intact Proteins Protein Hydrolysates Protein Fractions Infant Nutritional Proteins Prebiotics & Probiotics Nutritional Lipids Immunity Actives Sweet Flavours Savoury Flavours Dairy Flavours Natural Extracts Taste Modulators Dry Cheese Dry Dairy Yoghurt Dairy Sauces Frozen Sauces Broths & Stocks Herb Reductions Fermented Ingredients Oleoresins Snack Seasonings Marinades Smoke Systems Bread Crumbs Cracker Meal Batters Breaders Cold-Form Extrusion Meat, Vegetable & Herb Reductions Smoked & Grill Stocks & Bouillons Flavours Puffing Extrusion Co-Extrusion Granola Clustering Toasting Soy Flour Jet Cooking Nuggets Sprinkles Chocolate Compounds Pralines Cookie Pieces Variegates Enrobing Panning Aseptic Agglomeration Encapsulation Functional Lipids Syrups Brands Foodservice Solutions
facilitates global, regional, local development
OUTLOOK AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
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TECHNOLOGY
Meat & Savoury Products Meal Solutions Dairy Products
REGION
Rest of Europe Ireland GB
CUSTOMERS
Brand Private Label
OUTLOOK AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
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Authenticity/Flavour Snacking New Health ‘Free from’ Convenience
OUTLOOK AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
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health
sourcing
wellbeing
development
COMMUNITY WORKPLACE MARKETPLACE
sustainable growth
reflect global concerns and issues
shareholders, employees and suppliers, translated into actions that help direct our day-to-day activities
through the Kerry Sustainability Council, with functional responsibility for implementation that embeds sustainability within the business
efficiency
reduction
ENVIRONMENT
REVIEW OF BUSINESS
Targets assume neutral currency and raw materials with market growth of 2% - 3% p.a. | * Includes 100bps benefit arising from the Kerryconnect project Adjusted EPS, ROACE & ROAE are calculated before brand related intangible asset amortisation and non-trading items (net of related tax) 34
Target (p.a.) 4 Year Performance Adjusted EPS growth 10%+ +8.4% +9.8%
constant currency
Volume growth 3% - 5% +3.2% Margin expansion +50bps* +70bps
ROACE 12%+ 13.8%
ROAE 15%+ 17.7% CFROI 12%+ 11.5% –
Realising Group Targets
GROWTH RETURN
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1
11 October 2017, Global Technology & Innovation Centre, Naas, Ireland
OUTLOOK AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
OUTLOOK AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
36
development)
In 2017, we expect to achieve good revenue growth and 5% to 9% growth in adjusted EPS* to a range of 339.6 to 352.5 cent per share (2016: 323.4 cent)
Note: * before brand related intangible asset amortisation and non-trading items (net of related tax)
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
2016 2016 GR GROWTH Revenue €2,589m +3.9%*
Note: * volume growth 38
2016 2016 GR GROWTH Revenue €1,447m +0.7%*
Note: * volume growth 39
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
2016 2016 GR GROWTH Revenue €765m +10.7%*
Note: * volume growth 40
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
41
1,248 1,042 1,027 727 703 683 352 275 267 201 176 156 134 97
Kerry Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7 Peer 8 Peer 9 Peer 10 Peer 11 Peer 12 Peer 13
DEVELOPING MARKET SALES TASTE & NUTRITION
€’M
250 194 169 137 116 100 66 63 34 33 22 10 3 3
Kerry Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7 Peer 8 Peer 9 Peer 10 Peer 11 Peer 12 Peer 13
LARGEST R&D SPEND TASTE & NUTRITION
€’M
Kerry estimates based on most recent accounts published
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
42
Trading Reporting Acquisitions/ Volumes Price Currency Currency Disposals Total Taste & Nutrition 4.0% (2.1%) (0.1%) (3.2%) 4.9% 3.5% Consumer Foods 2.1% (2.0%) (1.1%) (6.6%) (2.1%) (9.7%) Group 3.6% (2.1%) (0.3%) (4.1%) 3.3% 0.4%
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
43
2016 2016 2015 Revenue Trading Profit Revenue Trading Profit €m €m % €m €m % Taste & Nutrition 4,880 716 14.7% 4,716 663 14.1% Consumer Foods 1,333 117 8.8% 1,476 126 8.5% Eliminations/unallocated (82) (83) – (87) (89) – Group 6,131 750 12.2% 6,105 700 11.5%
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Note: * before brand related intangible asset amortisation and non-trading items (net of related tax) 44
2016 2016 2015 Growth € cent € cent % Adjusted EPS* 323.4 301.9 7.1% Brand related intangible asset amortisation (13.1) (10.6) – Non-trading items (net of related tax) (7.4) 7.4 – Basic EPS 302.9 298.7 1.4%
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
531 569
2015 Underlying growth Transaction currency Kerryconnect Acquisitions /disposals Share options exercised Constant currency Translation currency 2016
45
Organic growth = +10.2% % Growth +11.6% (1.3%) (0.1%) +2.2% (0.1%) 12.3% (5.2%) +7.1%
Note: * before brand related intangible asset amortisation and non-trading items (net of related tax)
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Note: * free cash flow as a % of adjusted earnings after tax 46
Cash conversion* 84% 91% 62% 85% 100%
€344m €412m €303m €453m €570m
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5 YEAR FREE CASH FLOW OF €2.1BN
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
47
@ Floating @ Fixed Debt Rates Rates Euro 1,128 229 899 Sterling
US Dollar 750 418 332 Other 11 11 – Gross debt 1,889 658 1,231 Cash (565) (565)
1,324 93 1,231 Gross Debt 2016 35% 65% Gross Debt 2015 36% 64% Weighted average period for which rate is fixed: 6.6 years (2015: 7.6 years)
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
48
1% (12%) (18%) (3%) (7%) (1%) (4%) (16%) (9%)
USD GBP MXN BRL MYR AUD CAD ZAR RUB
AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATES – 2016 V 2015
USD GBP MXN BRL MYR AUD CAD ZAR RUB 2016 1.11 0.82 20.67 3.84 4.58 1.48 1.46 16.08 74.13 2015 1.12 0.73 17.46 3.72 4.30 1.46 1.41 13.90 68.07
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Note: *before brand related intangible asset amortisation and non-trading items (net of related tax) | Targets assume neutral currency and raw materials 49
GROWTH RETURN
Adjusted EPS* +10% p.a. by: Volu
Mar argin Exp Expansio ion Taste & Nutrition 4% to 6% p.a. Taste & Nutrition 50 bps p.a. Consumer Foods 2% to 3% p.a. Consumer Foods 20 bps p.a. Group 3% to 5% p.a. Group 30 bps p.a.
(assumes market growth rate of 2% to 3% p.a.) (plus an additional 100 bps from the Kerryconnect project)
ROACE* E* 12% 12%+ CFROI 12%+ ROAE* 15%+
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Note: * 2012 restated due to adoption of IAS 19 (2011) ‘Employee Benefits’ 50
GROUP REVENUES (€M) TASTE & NUTRITION TRADING PROFIT
5,848 5,837 5,757 6,105 6,131 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 559 611 636 700 750 2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016
5 year CAGR 2.9%
GROUP TRADING PROFIT (€M)
5 year CAGR 8.4%
7.7% 8.0% 8.3% 8.5% 8.8%
3.5% 5.5% 7.5% 9.5% 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190
2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016 12.0% 12.9% 13.7% 14.1% 14.7%
7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 200 400 600 800
2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016
CONSUMER FOODS TRADING PROFIT
Trading profit Trading profit margin Trading profit Trading profit margin
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Note: * before brand related intangible asset amortisation and non-trading items (net of related tax) | ** 2012 restated due to adoption of IAS 19 (2011) ‘Employee Benefits’ 51
ADJUSTED EARNINGS* (€M) ADJUSTED EPS*
5 year CAGR 8.7%
FREE CASH FLOW (€M)
5 year Average Cash Conversion 84%
DIVIDEND PER SHARE (CENT)
5 year CAGR 8.7% 5 year CAGR 11.7%
411 453 490 531 569 2012** 2013 2014 2015 2016 344 412 303 453 570 2012** 2013 2014 2015 2016 234.0 257.9 278.9 301.9 323.4 2012** 2013 2014 2015 2016 +11.3% +10.2% +8.1% +8.2% +7.1% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 +11.2% +11.7% +12.5% +11.1% +12.0%
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Shares in issue at 31 December 2016: 176,010,831 52
INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS
North America 21% UK 16% Europe (excluding UK & Ireland) 12% Rest of World 5% Ireland 4%
Retail 28% Kerry Co-operative 14% Institutions 58%
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
February 2017