The potential for CO measurements to estimate North American fossil - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The potential for CO measurements to estimate North American fossil fuel CO emissions

Sourish Basu, John Miller, Scott Lehman

U . S . D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

GMD Annual Conference Boulder,  May 

What is the issue? . FF estimate Measurements of total CO are generally ineffective at estimating fossil fuel CO emissions Fossil fuel CO Total CO



What is the issue? . NEE estimate dC dt = Foce + Fbio + Ffos

2010 average Biosphere flux (grams C/m²/day)

−0.4 −0.3 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

2010 average Fossil fuel (grams C/m²/day)

0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7

◮ Almost all atmospheric CO inversions assume CO(ff) “perfectly”

known, solve for natural fluxes

◮ Global annual FF known to within , not true at small scales ◮ Usually not up to date, EDGAR  yr old, Vulcan  yr old



What is the issue? . NEE estimate dC dt = Foce + Fbio + Ffos

2010 average Biosphere flux (grams C/m²/day)

−0.4 −0.3 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

2010 average Miller/CT − Miller/Vulcan (grams C/m²/day)

−0.4 −0.3 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

◮ Almost all atmospheric CO inversions assume CO(ff) “perfectly”

known, solve for natural fluxes

◮ Global annual FF known to within , not true at small scales ◮ Usually not up to date, EDGAR  yr old, Vulcan  yr old



Over ConUS, ∆ CO signal dominated by fossil fuel ∆ Cff = − (i.e., zero CO) Scaling in  = −. ∆ C for  ppm CO(ff) fossil fuel, ocean and land disequilibrium, nuclear and cosmogenic production fossil fuel only



Observation System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) OSSE to gauge potential of CO measurements How accurately can a CO + CO inversion estimate fossil fuel fluxes

◮ with CO

measurements at the level of  coverage?



Observation System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) OSSE to gauge potential of CO measurements How accurately can a CO + CO inversion estimate fossil fuel fluxes

◮ with CO

measurements at the level of  coverage?

◮ with ∼  CO

measurements/year?



OSSE results : fluxes

J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n J u l A u g S e p O c t N

• v

D e c 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48

gC/m²/day Fossil fuel CO₂ flux from United States

1399 1434 1468 1502 1536 1570 1604 1638

TgC/year

Prior 2010 coverage NRC 5000 Truth Truth ±5%

Monthly fluxes ±  recovered for the continental US ...



OSSE results : fluxes

J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n J u l A u g S e p O c t N

• v

D e c 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10

gC/m²/day Fossil fuel CO₂ flux from Eastern US

750 791 833 875 916

TgC/year

Prior 2010 coverage NRC 5000 Truth Truth ±5%

... for large subregions ...



OSSE results : fluxes

J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n J u l A u g S e p O c t N

• v

D e c 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25

gC/m²/day Fossil fuel CO₂ flux from East North Central US

222 233 245 257 268 280 292

TgC/year

Prior 2010 coverage NRC 5000 Truth Truth ±5%

... for large subregions ...



OSSE results : fluxes

J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n J u l A u g S e p O c t N

• v

D e c 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30

gC/m²/day Fossil fuel CO₂ flux from NY-NJ-PA (USA)

72 81 90 99 108 117

TgC/year

Prior 2010 coverage NRC 5000 Truth Truth ±5%

... and even for fairly small regions.



OSSE results : fluxes

J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n J u l A u g S e p O c t N

• v

D e c 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

gC/m²/day Fossil fuel CO₂ flux from the New England states

35 40 46 52 58

TgC/year

Prior 2010 coverage NRC 5000 Truth Truth ±5%

... and even for fairly small regions.



OSSE results : correlations

United States Western US Central US Eastern US Mountain US East North Central US West North Central US NY-NJ-PA (USA) West South Central US South Atlantic US the New England states Pacific US East South Central US −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.0

Correlation

NRC 5000 (no ¹⁴CO₂)

Correlation between fossil fuel and biogenic CO₂ fluxes from Jan 1, 2010 to Jan 1, 2011

dC dt = Fnatural + Ffos



OSSE results : correlations

United States Western US Central US Eastern US Mountain US East North Central US West North Central US NY-NJ-PA (USA) West South Central US South Atlantic US the New England states Pacific US East South Central US −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.0

Correlation

NRC 5000 NRC 5000 (no ¹⁴CO₂)

Correlation between fossil fuel and biogenic CO₂ fluxes from Jan 1, 2010 to Jan 1, 2011

dC dt = Fnatural + Ffos C d dt∆atm = (∆fos − ∆atm) Ffos + · · ·



Take home messages

◮ CO measurements provide a top-down constraint on fossil fuel CO

emission estimates

◮ All CO inversions assume a “known”fossil fuel flux, which can be

relaxed using measurements of CO

◮ With  CO obs/year, we could recover the monthly national total

FF CO to , and also monthly regional FF CO from high-emitting regions

◮ Even with  coverage, we could recover the monthly national total

FF CO to  for most months



Isotope geochemistry of CO



Isotope geochemistry of CO δCO = [︃ (CO/CO)sample (CO/CO)reference −  ]︃ ×  = [︃relative abundance in sample “typical”relative abundance −  ]︃ × 

◮ (CO/CO)reference = . × − ◮ Basis for radiocarbon dating; older the sample, lower the δC ◮ Emitting fossil fuel CO “ages”the atmosphere



Isotope geochemistry of CO

Tree ring ∆C by Stuiver & Quay, 



Isotope geochemistry of CO



Isotope geochemistry of CO

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

20 30 40 50 60 70 80

(δ14 C CO2) Carbon-14/Carbon in Carbon Dioxide ()

Graph created ESRL/GMD - 2014-November-01 04:50 am

Niwot Ridge, Colorado, United States (NWR)

NWR δ14 C CO2 Carbon Cycle Surface Flasks



Isotope geochemistry of CO

−10 −5 5 Forcing on Δ¹⁴CO₂ in 2010 (‰/year) Fossil fuel Ocean disequilibrium Land disequilibrium Nuclear facilities Cosmogenic production Total

Global budget

−100 −80 −60 −40 −20 20 Forcing on Δ¹⁴CO₂ in 2010 (‰/year) Fossil fuel Ocean disequilibrium Land disequilibrium Nuclear facilities Cosmogenic production Total



Isotope geochemistry of CO

−10 −5 5 Forcing on Δ¹⁴CO₂ in 2010 (‰/year) Fossil fuel Ocean disequilibrium Land disequilibrium Nuclear facilities Cosmogenic production Total

Global budget

−100 −80 −60 −40 −20 20 Forcing on Δ¹⁴CO₂ in 2010 (‰/year) Fossil fuel Ocean disequilibrium Land disequilibrium Nuclear facilities Cosmogenic production Total

Continental US budget



Over North America, fossil fuel dominates ∆ Cff = − (i.e., zero CO) Scaling in  = −. ∆ C for  ppm CO(ff) fossil fuel, ocean and land disequilibrium, nuclear and cosmogenic production fossil fuel only



2010 average Miller/CT (grams C/m²/day)

CMA NWR

0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7



2010 average Miller/CT (grams C/m²/day)

CMA NWR

0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7

2010 average Miller/Vulcan (grams C/m²/day)

CMA NWR

0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4



Mass balance dC dt =Foce + Fbio + Ffos d dt (C · ∆atm) =∆fosFfos + ∆atm (Foce + Fbio) + ∆oceFoce→atm + ∆bioFbio→atm + α (Fnuc + Fcosmo) tracers transported fluxes estimated



Sampling sites in  and NRC 

Surface sites Aircraft sites

2010 coverage NRC 5000 CO₂ ¹⁴CO₂



Inversion framework

