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Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd. October 2014 Corporate Presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd. October 2014 Corporate Presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd. October 2014 Corporate Presentation WWW.ZARGON.CA Advisory Forward-Looking Information Forward Looking Statements This presentation offers our assessment of Zargon's future plans and operations as at October
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Advisory – Forward-Looking Information
Forward‐Looking Statements ‐ This presentation offers our assessment of Zargon's future plans and operations as at October 7, 2014, and contains forward‐looking
- statements. Such statements are generally identified by the use of words such as "anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "forecast", "may", "will", "project",
"should", "plan", "intend", "believe" and similar expressions (including the negatives thereof). In particular, this presentation contains forward‐looking information as to Zargon’s corporate strategy and business plans, Zargon’s oil exploration project inventory and development plans, Zargon’s dividend policy and the amount of future dividends, future commodity prices, Zargon’s expectation for uses of funds from financing, Zargon’s capital expenditure program and the allocation and the sources of funding thereof, Zargon’s cash flow and dividend model and the assumptions contained therein and the results there from, anticipated payout rates, 2014 and beyond production and other guidance and the assumptions contained therein, estimated tax pools, Zargon’s reserve estimates, Zargon’s hedging policies, Zargon’s drilling, development and exploitation plans and projects and the results there from and Zargon’s ASP project plans 2014 and beyond, plans to sell un‐ strategic assets, the source of funding for our 2014 and beyond capital program including ASP, capital expenditures, costs and the results therefrom. By their nature, forward‐looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, some of which are beyond our control, including such as those relating to results of
- perations and financial condition, general economic conditions, industry conditions, changes in regulatory and taxation regimes, volatility of commodity prices,
escalation of operating and capital costs, currency fluctuations, the availability of services, imprecision of reserve estimates, geological, technical, drilling and processing problems, environmental risks, weather, the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management, stock market volatility, the ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources and competition from other industry participants for, among other things, capital, services, acquisitions of reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel. Risks are described in more detail in our Annual Information Form, which is available on our website. Forward‐ looking statements are provided to allow investors to have a greater understanding of our business. You are cautioned that the assumptions, including, among other things, future oil and natural gas prices; future capital expenditure levels; future production levels; future exchange rates; the cost of developing and expanding our assets; our ability to obtain equipment in a timely manner to carry out development activities; our ability to market our oil and natural gas successfully to current and new customers; the impact of increasing competition; our ability to obtain financing on acceptable terms; and our ability to add production and reserves through our development and acquisition activities used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on forward‐looking statements. Our actual results, performance, or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward‐looking statements. We can give no assurance that any of the events anticipated will transpire or occur, or if any of them do, what benefits we will derive from them. The forward‐looking information contained in this presentation is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. Our policy for updating forward‐looking statements is that Zargon disclaims, except as required by law, any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or
- therwise.
Barrels of Oil Equivalent ‐ Natural gas is converted to a barrel of oil equivalent (“Boe”) using six thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil. In certain circumstances, natural gas liquid volumes have been converted to a thousand cubic feet equivalent (“Mcfe”) on the basis of one barrel of natural gas liquids to six thousand cubic feet of gas. Boes and Mcfes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A conversion ratio of one barrel to six thousand cubic feet of natural gas is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion ratio on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value. The estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation. Estimated reserve values disclosed in this presentation do not represent fair market value. Discovered Petroleum Initially‐In‐Place (“DPIIP”) is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production. The recoverable portion of discovered petroleum initially in place includes production, reserves, and contingent resources; the remainder is unrecoverable. The aggregate of the exploration and development costs incurred in the most recent financial year and the change during that year in estimated future development costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costs related to reserves additions for that year.
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Zargon: Core Attributes
Long‐lived Oil Assets Long‐lived Oil Assets Oil Exploitation Oil Exploitation Dividend Paying Dividend Paying
- Pressure Supported (Waterflood and Water
Drive): 60+ prospective oil exploitation locations in pressure supported (low decline) properties.
- Tertiary (ASP): Little Bow ASP tertiary recovery
project provides years of oil production growth.
- 21.0 Mmbbl of 2P oil reserves (12.4 yr. rli –
based on year end 2013 McDaniel report).
- 68% of 2P oil reserves are developed
producing reserves.
- Compared to peers, very low base oil
production decline rates (less than 15%/yr.).
- $355 million ($17.72/share) of dividends and
distributions paid over history on total historical equity investment of $210 million.
- $0.06 per share stable monthly dividend since
October 2012.
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Zargon: Asset Description
Little Bow ASP Tertiary Oil Recovery Project Little Bow ASP Tertiary Oil Recovery Project Waterflood and Waterdrive Oil Properties Waterflood and Waterdrive Oil Properties Other Non‐Strategic Other Non‐Strategic
Waterflood and Waterdrive (Pressure Supported) Oil Properties:
- Properties provide 93% of total oil production (3,827 bbl/d
in Q2 2014); very predictable with very low decline,
- Substantial inventory of low risk oil exploitation wells,
- Supports dividend through the rest of the decade.
Little Bow ASP Enhanced Recovery Project:
- Phase 1, now showing first production,
- Phase 1‐4 ASP oil projects (average working interest
- f 98+%) will provide oil production growth well into
the next decade,
- Scalable technology that can be used for other fields.
Other Non‐Strategic Assets:
- Remaining properties were producing 269 bbl/d and
11.45 mmcf/d of lower netback production in Q2 2014,
- Properties have “atrophied” in recent years, as capital
was allocated to core assets,
- In 2014, have disposed 50 bbl/d, 8.10 mmcf/d and 280
net wells.
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Forecast Oil Production Trends (Indicative)
- Assumes oil production base decline of 15% per year.
- Commencing in Q4 2014, ASP production wedge permits oil production growth.
- The 2015 conventional (non ASP) capital budget will be adjusted to match available cash
flows.
- Historical data identifies the impact of the property sales that were used to fund the ASP
project.
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Q1 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4
Oil Production (bbl/day)
History Estimate Variable Conv. Cap. Base Production declines at 15% per year ASP Phase 1‐2 increment
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Zargon Overview
(As at October 7, 2014 unless otherwise stated)
Capitalization – Toronto Stock Exchange: Symbols: ZAR; ZAR.DB – Common Shares Outstanding: 30.18 million (basic) – Market Capitalization: $201 million ($6.66 per share) (1) – Net Debt at Jun. 30, 2014: $129 million, comprised of
- Convertible Debentures,
$57.5 million (face value)
- Bank Debt (authorized $150 million) and
$56.4 million
- Net Working Capital Deficit
$15.1 million
Dividend & Yield – Annualized Current Dividend: $0.72 per share – Yield at current share price: 10.8% (1) H1 2014 Production – Equivalent: 6,610 boe/d – Oil: 4,208 bbl/d (64% of production) – Gas: 14.41 mmcf/d H1 2014 Financial Results – Funds Flow from Operations $0.90 per basic share ($27.2 million) – Dividends Paid $0.36 per basic share ($10.8 million) – Payout ratio 40% based on H1 2014 funds flow.
(1) Based on a monthly dividend rate of $0.06/share and using the October 3, 2014 closing share price of $6.66.
7
2014 Corporate Objectives
- ASP Related:
– Commission the Little Bow ASP project on budget, with first chemical injections occurring by the end of the 2014 first quarter. (completed) – Deliver Little Bow Phase 1 ASP operational and production targets of an incremental 150 barrels of oil per day by year end (increasing to a 2015 average incremental rate of 700 barrels
- f oil per day). (underway)
– Finalize the design of the Little Bow Phase 2 ASP project and advance the Little Bow Phase 3 and 4 ASP engineering studies. (in progress)
- Waterflood and Waterdrive Oil Exploitation Related:
– Deliver high‐graded and profitable oil exploitation programs at our five long‐life low‐decline oil
- properties. (Solid Q2/Q3 Taber and Bellshill results)
- Corporate Related:
– Conclude property dispositions that high‐grade and concentrate the Company’s properties on
- ur core oil exploitation (ASP and waterflood/waterdrive) business. (essentially completed)
– Improve corporate netbacks by focusing on all costs. (enabled by property sales) – Maintain (and ultimately improve) our balance sheet. (stable debt through 2015, then significant improvement forecast) – Deliver a consistent dividend of $0.06 per common share per month. (highest priority)
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Oil Exploitation Properties
(Waterflood and Waterdrive Properties)
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Waterflood and Waterdrive Oil Exploitation Projects Current Drilling Inventory
Large inventory of oil exploitation opportunities 60+ Total Available Elswick, Midale, Weyburn, Ralph, Steelman, Mackobee Develop Sunburst pool Develop Glauconite pool Increase fluid withdrawal Multi‐frac horizontals Project Horizontal drainage wells in relatively tight reservoirs; additional pressure support required in some cases 20+ Williston Basin Expand and enhance waterfloods 5 Taber Implement waterflood concurrently with development 5 Bellshill Lake Killam Facility optimization; infills and step‐outs 10 Bellshill Lake Will require waterflood re‐implementation, large upside 20+ Hamilton Lake Comments Net Locations Property The existing oil exploitation well inventory will support stable non‐ASP oil production volumes for many years. The H2 2014 conventional oil exploitation drilling program includes 4 Williston Basin and 2 Taber wells.
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Long-Life, Low-Decline Oil Production Base
Vintage Zargon operated production plot highlights Zargon’s low‐decline oil production decline of less than 15%. Independent research by Peters indicates industry low base declines.
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Gross W.I. Oil Production Rate ( bbl/day )
2013 Additions 2012 Additions 2011 Additions 2010 Additions 2009 Additions 2008 Additions Base Production
Zargon Corporate Decline Analysis ‐ Total Oil Production Rate
Data to Dec 31, 2013
10 20 30 40 50
Average Annual Decline Rate (%)
Average 32%
Zargon
Source: Peters & Co. Limited, Intermediate & Junior Universe (July 28, 2014) Reserves data reflects 2013 year end reserve results.
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Canadian Alkaline Surfactant Polymer (ASP) Projects
- 10 Canadian ASP Projects in
- peration
- 3 additional projects have
regulatory approval
- Major operators: Husky,
CNRL, Cenovus
- Significant implementation
in Saskatchewan: historically more favorable EOR royalty treatment
- Technology utilized in Asia
since 1980’s
Edmonton Lethbridge Calgary Medicine Hat Grande Prairie Mooney (Black Pearl) 2011 Coleville (Penn West) 2011 Suffield (Cenovus) 2007 Taber South (Husky) 2006 Taber (Husky) 2008 Grand Forks (CNRL) Strathmore (Terrex) Battrum (Hyak Energy) Fosterton (Husky) 2012 Gull Lake (Husky) 2009 Instow (Crescent Point) 2007/11
Little Bow (Zargon)
Alberta Sask.
Bone Creek (Husky)
In Progress Scheme Approved
Edmonton Lethbridge Calgary Medicine Hat Grande Prairie Mooney (Black Pearl) 2011 Coleville (Penn West) 2011 Suffield (Cenovus) 2007 Taber South (Husky) 2006 Taber (Husky) 2008 Grand Forks (CNRL) Strathmore (Terrex) Battrum (Hyak Energy) Fosterton (Husky) 2012 Gull Lake (Husky) 2009 Instow (Crescent Point) 2007/11
Little Bow (Zargon)
Alberta Sask.
Bone Creek (Husky)
In Progress Scheme Approved In Progress Scheme Approved
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Little Bow ASP Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) With Proven Technology
Little Bow ASP: Phase 1&2 Development
Little Bow
Alberta
15-18W4
Zargon Land Zargon Wells Zargon Land Zargon Wells Phase 1 Area Phase 2 Area Phase 1 Area Phase 2 Area Little Bow Mannville “P” Pool Little Bow Mannville “I” Pool
- EOR in a mature, southern Alberta Waterflood
- Phased Development
- Phases 1 & 2 Project Capital: $62 Million (excludes chemical)
– $42 million incurred in 2012 and 13 – $8 million in 2014 – $12 million divided between 2015 and 2016 (Phase 2)
- Current Little Bow Oil (Phase 1 & 2): 370 bbl/d
- First ASP Injection:
March 2014
- Zargon Forecast Incremental Oil Rate:
2014 Exit: 150 bbl/d 2015 Avg: 700 bbl/d 2016 Avg: 1,550 bbl/d
- Zargon Forecast Incremental Oil Recovery:
5.2 Million Barrels (12% DOIIP)
- McDaniel Proved and Probable Incremental Oil Recovery:
4.5 Million Barrels (1.5 Million Barrels Proved)
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RECENT HIGHLIGHTS
- ASP facility, oil battery and field construction complete and
- nline in March 2014 ($50 million capital construction and
startup cost).
- Through September 2014, have injected more than 1.9 million
barrels of ASP solution. Reservoir and injection performance is exceeding expectations with good evidence of oil banks being formed in the reservoir.
- In late July 2014, Alberta Energy announced retroactive revisions
to the Enhanced Oil Recovery (“EOR”) Crown royalty program that have a very positive effect on Zargon’s Little Bow ASP economics.
Little Bow ASP Project Milestones
Photo Courtesy STRIKE Energy Services
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ASP Enhanced Oil Recovery Process
Process: Dilute concentrations of chemicals (Alkali, Surfactant and Polymer) in water are injected into an existing oil pool to “scrub” out oil that waterflooding alone could not recover. Objective Wash out more oil from an existing reservoir.
- Surfactants (Detergent):
Mobilizes trapped oil
- Alkali:
Increases effectiveness of the surfactant
- Polymer (Thickener):
Thickened water helps sweep oil from the reservoir
Injector Producer Water Water Injector Producer Polymer Solution Increased Contact Volume Polymer Solution Increased Contact Volume
a) Water Injection b) Polymer Injection
Rock Rock
a) Water Injection: More than half of oil is “trapped” b) Alkali / Surfactant Mobilizes trapped oil
Water Injection Trapped Oil Droplet Water Rock Rock Mobilized Oil Droplet Alkali & Surfactant Solution
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ASP Chemical Flooding – Injection Sequence
1 – ASP Injection A Blend of Alkali, Surfactant & Polymer mobilizes trapped oil 2 ‐ Polymer “Push” Polymer displaces mobilized oil to producing wells 3‐ Terminal Waterflood Completes the Displacement
OIL BANK ASP POLYMER WATER
Little Bow Phase 1 & 2 Injection Schedule Phase 1
ASP Polymer Waterflood
Phase 2
ASP Polymer
2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Little Bow ASP Analog ASP Project: Husky Taber Mannville “B”
Taber Production History
Sep-12 Sep-11 Sep-10 Sep-09 Sep-08 Sep-07 Sep-06 Sep-05
16 % R.F. 16 % R.F. 14.5 % R.F. (Husky Application) 14 % R.F. 14 % R.F. 12 % R.F. (Zargon Base Case) 12 % R.F. 10 % R.F. 10 % R.F. 8 % R.F. (Zargon PV10 Breakeven) 8 % R.F.
10 100 1,000 10,000
15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 Cumulative Oil Production (mbbl) Oil Production (bbl/d) 1% 10% 100% 1000% Oil Cut (%)
Data to July-2013
Oil Cut (%) Oil Rate, bbl/d First ASP Injection May, 2006
? ?
ERCB DPIIP = 43.1 mmbbl ASP Recovery
- Ult. Recovery *
% mmbbl mmbbl 8 3.4 20.5 10 4.3 21.3 12 5.2 22.2 14 6.0 23.0 16 6.9 23.9 * Ultimate Recovery where ASP flood returns to pre‐ASP levels
Taber Mannville “B” ASP Project
- Most mature Canadian ASP Project; Husky Operated
- Same geological setting, oil quality, reservoir size and was at same
state of depletion as Zargon’s Little Bow Pool
- First ASP Injection: 2006
- Incremental recovery is greater than 12%
Little Bow Mannville “I” and “P” Pools (Zargon) Taber Mannville “B” Pool (Husky)
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- Reservoir simulation model
used to optimize ASP flood design
- Multiple scenarios:
‐ ASP chemical formulation ‐ Drilling & workover locations ‐ Pattern design
- Optimized case with increased
polymer bank predicts 6.5 million barrels incremental ASP oil recovery
- Using a conservative 5.2
million barrels for economics which equates to a 12% incremental recovery factor
Little Bow ASP Development Optimization Study (Phases 1 & 2)
Oil Recovery
1,276 cases run
Base Waterflood Recovery
ASP Oil Recovery (mbbl)
McDaniel 2013 Year End: 4,500 Zargon 2013 Optimized: 6,500 Zargon 2013 Economics: 5,200
ASP Oil Recovery
Oil Recovery
1,276 cases run
Base Waterflood Recovery
ASP Oil Recovery (mbbl)
McDaniel 2013 Year End: 4,500 Zargon 2013 Optimized: 6,500 Zargon 2013 Economics: 5,200
ASP Oil Recovery
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Little Bow ASP Phase 1-4 Development Plan (Incorporates Q2 2014 Acquisition of Phase 3 & 4 Interests)
* AER DOIIP Data
(Jan/2014)
Other 5 100 MM Unit 10 95 G Unit ZAR W.I. (%) W.I. DOIIP* (mmbbl) Phases 1 & 2 LB “I” Pool 100 31 LB “P” Pool 100 8 Phases 3 & 4 U&W Unit 97 26 C8C / X8X 100 9 Total 89
Little Bow Phase 1 - 4 Injection Schedule Phase 1
ASP Polymer Waterflood
Phase 2
ASP Polymer Waterflood
Phase 3
ASP Polymer Waterflood
Phase 4
ASP Polymer
2026 2027 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 15‐19W4 15‐18W4 14‐19W4 14‐18W4
Zargon Land Zargon Wells
“G”, “U&W” Units “C8C/X8X” Pool “MM” Unit ASP Phase 1&2
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Alberta Modified EOR Crown Royalty Program
PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS AND IMPACT ON ZARGON
- Announced July 2014
- Alberta conventional oil EOR royalties in line with Alberta oil sands and Saskatchewan
conventional oil EOR programs.
- 5 percent oil royalty rate for up to 10 years.
- Little Bow Phase 1: Eight years expected
- McDaniel has updated the Little Bow ASP evaluation with the new royalty program.
39.6 25.1 1.53 Proved Undeveloped 98.6 66.3 4.48 Proved and Probable Undeveloped Modified EOR Roy. As of July 1, 2014 ($million)
- Prev. EOR Roy. As
- f Jan. 1, 2014
($million) McDaniel Oil & Liquids Reserves (mmbbl) McDaniel (Phase 1 and 2)
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Little Bow ASP Phase 1 – Positive Response Indicators
Other non‐production indicators have been
- bserved:
- Changes in produced water
chemistry
- Polymer production
- Changes in fluid production
- Changes in gas‐oil ratio
- Changes in wellhead
injection pressure
02/10-32-014-18W4/0
5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct OIl (bpd) & Oil Cut (%) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Fluid Production (bpd)
Oil Oil Cut Fluid
Phase 1 Region 1
First Well with ASP Response
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Little Bow ASP: Phase 1 Oil Production
June May April Mar Feb Jan 2015 Dec Nov Oct Sept Aug July
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Jun-2014
BOPD
Base Waterflood Daily Actuals
Little Bow Phase 1 ASP – Actual and Forecast Data
Zargon Forecast 2015 Avg. = 700 bpd Ultimate: 5.2 mmbbl McDaniel TP+P 2015 Avg. = 248 bpd Ultimate: 4.5 mmbbl
Well down for Productivity Enhancements
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Little Bow ASP: Phases 1&2 Production
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 BOPD
Base W.F. Phase 1 Phase 2
12.1% Recovery 5.2 mmbbl
Phase 1 Phase 2 Base Waterflood Zargon internal forecasts with McDaniel July 2014 price forecasts Effective Dates: Go Forward – July 1, 2014 Full Cycle – January 1, 2012 Zargon internal go‐forward economics are directly comparable to McDaniel July 1, 2014 proved and probable undeveloped case: McDaniel 2P reserves – 4.5 mmbl, McDaniel 2P PV10 – $98.6 million
(1) Chemical injections booked as capital; Netback calculated from 2015‐18 (2) Phase 2 capital; incurred in 2015 and 2016 (3) Prior chemical estimate of $77 million; modified by US/Cdn exchange assumptions and 3 months of completed injections
Phases 1 & 2 Economics
Go Forward Full Cycle
IRR (%) 117 25 PV10 ($million) 137 79 F&D ($/bbl) (1) 17 27 Netback ($/bbl) (1) 66 66 Recycle Ratio (1) 4.1 2.5 Oil Reserves (mbbl) 5,200 5,200 Capital ($million) 12 (2) 62 Chemical ($million) (3) 75 79
Little Bow ASP Phases 1 & 2 Project Economics (Zargon est.)
With new EOR royalties, July 2014 eff. date and McDaniel prices
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Little Bow ASP Phases 3 & 4 Project Economics (Zargon est.)
With new EOR royalties, July 2014 eff. date and McDaniel prices
ASP Development Forecast - Phases 1-4
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 BOPD
Base W.F. Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4
Zargon W.I. Production
Phases 1&2 12% Recovery 100% W.I. Phases 3&4 11% Recovery 97% W.I.
Phases 1 ‐ 4 Go Forward Economics Phases 3 & 4 Phases 1 ‐ 4 IRR (%) 50 113 PV10 ($million) 67 204 F&D ($/bbl) (1) 22 19 Netback ($/bbl) (1) 64 66 Recycle Ratio (1) 3.3 3.7 Oil Reserves (mbbl) 4,650 9,850 Capital ($million) 20 32 Chemical ($million) 82 157 Zargon internal forecasts with McDaniel July 2014 price forecasts Effective Dates: Go Forward – July 1, 2014 Reflects Current Zargon Working Interests varying from 97 – 100 %
(1) Chemical injections booked as capital; Phase 3&4 net back calculated from 2020‐23 (2) Phase 3 & 4 capital; incurred in 2019 through 2021 (3) Phase 3 & 4 chemical costs; incurred in 2021 through 2026
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2014 Property Disposition Program
Objective: Conclude property dispositions that high‐grade and concentrate the Company’s properties on our core oil exploitation business:
- Completed property sales:
– $1.5 million of Q1 proceeds for one Saskatchewan property (9 bbl/d) – $3.2 million (net) of Q2 proceeds relating to five Alberta transactions (23 bbl/d and 1,050 mcf/d) – $0.9 million (net) of post Q2 quarter end proceeds (August announcement) relating to three Alberta transactions (17 bbl/d and 1,480 mcf/d) – $6.6 million (net) of post Q2 quarter end proceeds (September announcement) relating to four Alberta transactions (5,600 mcf/d) – Total sales of $12.2 million of approximately 50 bb/d and 8,100 mcf/d (or 1,400 boe/d)
- Property disposition budget for 2014 was originally set at $5 million. With the
now completed Q3 property dispositions, we have concluded our 2014 property sale initiative, although further dispositions could be considered on an individual property basis.
25
2014 Updated and 2015 Capital Programs
2014 2015 ASP Phase 1 Construction Capital $ 8 million $ nil ASP Phase 1 Exploitation Capital $ 2 million $ 2 million ASP Phase 2 Development Capital $ nil $ 6 million ASP Phase 1 Chemical Costs $11 million $13 million Total ASP Capital $21 million $21 million Conventional (non ASP) Capital $36 million $25 million Total Capital Program $57 million $46 million The 2015 capital programs plus the $22 million of dividends ($0.06 per share per month) will be funded by cash flows, only and not additional bank debt. Significant cash flow increases are forecast in 2015 from the projected 700 bbl/d of Little Bow ASP incremental production. Should 2015 cash flows exceed the required $68 million, the excess funds can be used for debt retirement or increased conventional capital programs. If 2015 cash flows do not meet the $68 million target, the conventional capital programs will be reduced accordingly.
26
Net Asset Value Breakdown by Property:
McDaniel Proved and Probable 2013 Yr. End Reserves
$ 23 $ 3 9.55 0.87 3.35 219 Non Core Remaining $ 18 (sold for $12) $ 3 20.31 0.16 8.10 50 Subsequently Sold $ 44 $ nil H1/14 CF ($million) $ 6 H1/14 CF ($million) $ 38 $ 2 $ 4 $ 8 $ 7 $ 17 H1/14 CF ($million) 1.72 4.48 $ 66 (now $99) Nil nil Subtotal – ASP
- McD. Gas
Res.(bcf)
- McD. Oil Res.
(mmbbl) Q2/14 Gas Prod. (mmcf/d) PV 10 Asset Value ($million) Q2/14 Oil
- Prod. (bbl/d)
Little Bow ASP Assets $ 469 40.26 20.97 14.77 4,096 Grand Total $ 62 2.26 2.36 0.59 706 Bellshill (incl. Killam) $ 41 29.86 1.03 11.45 269 Subtotal – Non‐Core PV10 Asset Value ($million)
- McD. Gas
Res.(bcf)
- McD. Oil Res.
(mmbbl) Q2/14 Gas Prod. (mmcf/d) Q2/14 Oil
- Prod. (bbl/d)
Non‐Core Assets $ 362 8.68 15.46 3.32 3,827 Subtotal – Core $ 15 3.02 0.70 1.06 164 Hamilton Lake $ 48 2.25 2.40 1.18 575 Little Bow Conventional $ 66 0.20 2.35 0.08 698 Taber South $ 171 0.95 7.65 0.41 1,684 Williston Basin PV10 Asset Value ($million)
- McD. Gas
- Res. (bcf)
- McD. Oil Res.
(mmbbl) Q2/14 Gas Prod. (mmcf/d) Q2/14 Oil
- Prod. (bbl/d)
Waterflood Waterdrive Properties
Core waterflood and waterdrive property value of $362 million less June 30/14 net debt of $129 million leaves $233 million or $7.73 per Zargon share (30.13 million shares outstanding). H1 2014 field cash flow for these properties was $38 million. Based on the year end 2013 report, the Little Bow ASP and other assets (excluding undeveloped land) added another $107 million of value, or $3.55/share. Since year end, realized property sales at lower than McDaniel values (‐$6 million) have been more than offset by the positive effect of new EOR royalties for the Little Bow ASP project (+$33 million).
27
Key Takeaways at Current Share Price
(October 7, 2014)
- Zargon is committed to the current $0.06 per share monthly dividend (10.8
percent yield)
– During the 2013 “ASP heavy spend period”, Zargon bridged the spending gap between cash flows and capital expenditures with property sales. Now, the 2014 ASP construction capital is completed and we look forward to significant ASP free cash flow in 2015 and beyond to fully support and eventually grow the current dividend.
- The Little Bow ASP project provides significant oil production per share
growth for the 2015‐2017 period.
– Little Bow phase 1‐2 production rates are forecast to peak in 2018. Phases 1‐4 peak rates are in 2021. ASP project success could lead to significant follow‐on projects at Little Bow and other Southern Alberta properties.
- Zargon shares represent exceptional value at the current share price of $6.66
per share.
– Investors buy Zargon at a significant discount to the proved and probable net asset value for Zargon’s conventional pressure supported waterflood and waterdrive oil assets and non‐strategic assets. Arguably, no value is attributed to the exciting Little Bow ASP project.
WWW.ZARGON.CA
Appendices
29
Williston Basin Waterflood and Waterdrive Property Summary
1 000 1 1 00 1 200 1 300 1 400 1 500 1 600 1 700 1 800 1 900 2000 21 00 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Historical ‐ Current Assets 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
- The Williston Basin properties have been
developed with horizontal producers and
- injectors. Significant oil exploitation work
remains.
- Since 2008, the Williston Basin properties
have provided $281 million of property cash flow and $147 million of free cash flow after capital, in addition to providing a net $87 million of proceeds from property dispositions.
Production (sales volume) Revenue OPEX Royalties Netback Netback CAPEX Net Proceeds Before A&D Net A&D Net Proceeds (bbl/day) ($/boe) ($/boe) ($/boe) ($/boe) ($M) ($M) ($M) ($M) ($M) 2008 2,715 88.50 13.46 19.37 55.66 57,736 13,709 44,027 ‐115 43,912 2009 2,783 58.94 12.61 12.28 34.05 36,034 19,508 16,526 ‐77 16,449 2010 2,839 70.13 11.59 13.70 44.84 48,652 29,299 19,353 17,444 36,798 2011 2,436 83.88 15.21 16.23 52.44 48,647 22,838 25,809 22,374 48,183 2012 2,162 75.56 15.87 15.12 44.57 36,730 20,911 15,819 34,503 50,322 2013 1,911 82.35 17.03 15.52 49.79 36,010 18,066 17,944 11,451 29,395 H1‐2014 1,736 90.40 20.50 16.52 53.38 17,514 10,289 7,225 1,500 8,725 Total 281,324 134,620 146,704 87,080 233,783 Netback Elements
30
Williston Basin Activity Summary and Orientation Map
Estevan
North Dakota Saskatchewan Manitoba
Haas Truro Mackobee Coulee Frys Steelman Ralph Elswick Weyburn Workman
Ongoing Activities
- Exploit long life low decline pools with
horizontal wells and waterflood enhancements.
2014 Activities
- Drill 8 exploitation horizontal wells at
Steelman, Weyburn, Ralph and Mackobee Coulee.
- Upgrade 2 central batteries (Weyburn,
and Steelman).
- Modify and enhance existing waterflood
projects (Steelman and Ralph).
2015 Activities
- The size and scope of the Williston Basin
conventional oil exploitation capital programs will be dependent on the corporate cash flows available.
- Drill multiple exploitation horizontal
wells at Frys, Weyburn, Huntoon, Ralph and Mackobee Coulee.
- Upgrade 2 central batteries (Huntoon
and Elswick).
- Modify and enhance existing waterflood
projects (Weyburn, Frys and Elswick).
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Taber South Waterflood Property Summary
Taber S ‐ Production Contribution by Drilling Program Date (29 hz wells) 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Oil Rate (bbl/d)
Pre 2008 2008 2009 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 2 wells converted to Water Injection 1 well converted to Water Injection 1 well converted to Water Injection
The Taber South waterflood property has been developed with horizontal producers and injectors. Now, mostly developed the property provides significant free cash flow. Since 2008, the property has provided $80 million of property cash flow and $43 million of free cash flow after capital.
Taber
Oil Rate OPEX Netback (bbl/d) ($/boe) ($/boe) Netback CAPEX Net Proceeds 2008 515 11.23 $ 49.45 $ 10,731 3,342 7,389 2009 531 10.05 $ 33.79 $ 7,235 5,451 1,784 2010 762 8.97 $ 43.18 $ 12,532 11,044 1,487 2011 820 11.11 $ 50.33 $ 15,685 7,063 8,622 2012 762 10.53 $ 46.17 $ 13,281 4,826 8,455 2013 781 12.38 $ 44.16 $ 12,908 3,572 9,335 H1 ‐ 2014 717 13.48 $ 55.20 $ 7,374 1,868 5,506 Total 79,745 37,167 42,578 Annual (M$)
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Taber South Future Sunburst Hz Oil Development
- 2014 Activities
- Drilled 2 hz Sunburst wells in Q2
- Plan to drill 2 hz Sunburst wells in Q4
- (1 MM$/well)
- Injector conversion in south pool (04/6‐1 hz)
in Q4 (300 M$)
- Oil tank replacement at 15‐36 battery (500
M$)
- Future Activities
- Continue drilling program (2‐4 wells)
- Increase water handling capacity at 14‐11
battery (FWKO & Disposal wells) (1‐2 MM$)
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Little Bow Waterflood Property Summary Existing assets prior to ASP increment
The Little Bow waterflood property is now being re‐developed for tertiary ASP potential. Since 2009, these waterflood assets have provided $38 million of property cash flow and $20 million of free cash flow after capital.
Little Bow Core Area Production
200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Jan‐10 Jul‐10 Jan‐11 Jul‐11 Jan‐12 Jul‐12 Jan‐13 Jul‐13 Jan‐14 Oil Rate (bbl/d)
Zargon Operated Oilwells
No Drilling Activity ‐ Well Reactivation/Optimization Projects
Little Bow
Oil Rate OPEX Netback (bbl/d) ($/boe) ($/boe) Netback CAPEX* Net Proceeds 2008 ‐ ‐ $ ‐ $ ‐ ‐ ‐ 2009 447 12.23 $ 33.29 $ 4,146 76 4,070 2010 549 16.40 $ 27.52 $ 6,336 2,022 4,315 2011 616 23.06 $ 28.27 $ 7,777 4,097 3,680 2012 682 20.42 $ 27.32 $ 8,129 3,632 4,497 2013 621 24.98 $ 24.77 $ 7,247 6,637 609 H1 ‐ 2014 575 26.73 $ 30.24 $ 4,322 1,296 3,026 Total 37,957 17,760 20,197
* Includes ASP Exploitation CAPEX
Annual (M$)
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100 1,000 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Oil Rate (bbl/day)
base 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bellshill Lake (Waterdrive) & Killam Glauconite (Waterflood) Property Summary
The Bellshill Lake waterdrive property has been developed with vertical producers and high volume lift. The Killam Glauconite property is a less mature property that is being developed with horizontal producers. Also, a pilot waterflood has been initiated. Since 2008, these two Bellshill Lake properties have provided $76 million of property cash flow and $36 million of free cash flow after capital.
Rate OPEX Netback Netback CAPEX Net Proceeds (bbl/d) ($/boe) ($/boe) ($M) ($M) ($M) 2008 488 12.70 50.56 11,987 6,302 5,686 2009 738 11.12 31.94 9,693 3,684 6,009 2010 607 13.91 38.42 9,306 4,863 4,443 2011 688 15.33 45.24 12,596 7,570 5,026 2012 703 13.92 39.78 12,034 9,185 2,849 2013 713 14.43 41.04 12,414 4,067 8,348 H1‐2014 718 13.87 52.29 7,680 4,368 3,312 Total 75,710 40,037 35,673 Netback Elements
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Bellshill Lake Waterdrive Property
2014 Vertical locations 2014 Hz locations H2H Pool 2015 Vertical locations
- 2014 Drilling Program:
- Four vertical wells and a dual leg
horizontal well
- Potential for pool enlargement based on new
drilling and seismic
- 2 wells approved for Q2/2015
- Further optimization:
- increasing fluid inflow & pump size,
emulsion line looping and well reactivation
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Hamilton Lake Viking Oil Unit Waterflood Project
The Hamilton Lake light oil waterflood project has a large oil‐in‐place (160 mmbbl), with only a 10% recovery. Horizontal drilling & completion attempts to unlock this potential have only been partially successful. More technical work in 2015 will lead to further drilling when funds are available.
Rate OPEX Netback Netback CAPEX Net Proceeds (bbl/d) ($/boe) ($/boe) ($M) ($M) ($M) 2008 73 12.54 36.60 7,185 104 7,081 2009 56 15.54 11.03 1,697 177 1,520 2010 64 16.36 12.17 1,745 1,181 565 2011 99 21.38 13.01 1,708 6,914 ‐5,206 2012 228 19.75 20.00 3,292 11,599 ‐8,307 2013 193 21.23 22.09 3,174 1,974 1,200 H1‐2014 170 24.62 28.79 1,868 139 1,728 Total 20,670 22,089 ‐1,419 Netback Elements 10 100 1,000 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Oil Rate (bbl/day)
base 2011 2012 2013
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Net Asset Value Calculations at 2013 Year End
NAV Calculation (Dec 31, 2013) Proved + Prob. McDaniel Est. (PVBT 10%) $ 469 million
Undeveloped Land $ 17 million Deduct Est. Net Working Capital & Bank/Debenture Debt ‐ $ 116 million Net Asset Value $ 370 million
Zargon Proved + Prob. Net Asset Value $12.29 per basic share
6.03 181 280 PDP 8.36 251 351 P+PDP 12.29 370 469 Proved & Prob. 7.40 223 322 Total Proved Net Asset Value ($/basic share) Net Asset Value ($ million) McDaniel PVBT 10% ($ million) Reserve Category
(McDaniel January 1, 2014 price forecast and 30.09 million basic Zargon shares as of December 31, 2013)
2013 Year End Reserves – (Long‐life, low‐decline producing oil)
2P Equivalent Reserves: 27.7 million boe (RLI: 10.4 years)
Oil Reserves:
- P+P
21.0 million bbl (RLI: 12.4 years)
- P+P Developed Producing
14.2 million bbl (RLI: 8.4 years)
- Proved Developed Producing
10.6 million bbl (RLI: 6.2 years)
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Hedging Strategy and Current Hedges
Zargon uses hedges to help fund dividends and capital programs during periods of lower commodity prices. Our oil hedging policies allow for the forward sale of:
– up to a 70 percent maximum of estimated oil production volumes for the next 12 months. Then 60 percent for the following 12 months and 50 percent for the final 6 month period. – not to exceed a 30‐month period.
Current Forward Oil Sales:
H2 2014: 2,600 bbl/d at $90.92 US/bbl (WTI) and 400 bbl/d at $99.60 Cdn/bbl (WTI) Q1 2015: 1,600 bbl/d at $93.44 US/bbl (WTI) Q2 2015: 1,200 bbl/d at $94.01 US/bbl (WTI)
Current Forward Natural Gas Sales:
Q3 2014: 7,000 gj/d at $3.69/gj (AECO) Q4 2014: 3,000 gj/d at $4.03/gj (AECO) Q1 2015: 3,000 gj/d at $4.18/gj (AECO)
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Estimated (unaudited) Tax Pools (June 30, 2014)
Category June 30, 2014 Canadian Exploration Expense $ 55 million Non Capital Losses $113 million Canadian Development Expense $ 51 million Canadian Oil & Gas Property Expense $ 2 million Canadian Undepreciated Capital Cost $ 91 million Other ($ 1 million) Total Tax Pools $311 million Zargon has more than $300 million of very high quality Canadian tax pools that will shield increasing ASP revenues for many years.
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Production Guidance Scorecard (October 7, 2014 Update)
- Oil and Liquids Guidance:
‐ Q3 2013 4,650 barrels per day (4,816 bbl/d reported) (+) ‐ Q4 2013 4,550 barrels per day (4,625 bbl/d reported) (+) ‐ Q1 2014 4,300 barrels per day (4,320 bbl/d reported) (+) ‐ Q2 2014 4,200 barrels per day (4,096 bbl/d reported) (‐) ‐ Q3 2014 4,200 barrels per day ‐ Q4 2014 4,200 barrels per day ‐ Calendar 2015 4,000 barrels per day (excl. ASP) ‐ Calendar 2015 700 barrels per day (ASP)
- Natural Gas Guidance:
‐ Q3 2013 14.7 million cubic feet per day (16.5 mmcf/d reported) (+) ‐ Q4 2013 15.0 million cubic feet per day (15.9 mmcf/d reported) (+) ‐ Q1 2014 14.0 million cubic feet per day (14.1 mmcf/d reported) (+) ‐ Q2 2014 14.0 million cubic feet per day (14.8 mmcf/d reported) (+) ‐ Q3 2014 10.8 million cubic feet per day (partially reflects Q2/Q3 2014 property sales) ‐ Q4 2014 6.8 million cubic feet per day (reflects Q2/Q3 2014 property sales) ‐ Calendar 2015 6.4 million cubic feet per day
- Cost Targets:
‐ Operating $20.00 per boe (includes fixed ASP and transportation costs) in H2 2014, expected to decline in 2015 due to low cost ASP production. ‐ G&A $4.75 per boe (target level after property sales and corporate downsizing are completed).
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