SLIDE 1
Overview
- Turning the corner
- Challenges remain
- Fastest growing province
- Floods
- Bitumen bubble is back
2013-14 Second Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2013-14 Second Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2013-14 Second Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement November 26, 2013 Overview Turning the corner Challenges remain Fastest growing province Floods Bitumen bubble is back Booming Population Flood Costs June
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
Booming Population
SLIDE 4
Flood Costs
- June 24 - Floods
- June 27 - $1 B commitment
- November 25 - $764 M
supplementary estimate
SLIDE 5
Economic Strength
- Solid foundation
- Strong growth
- Net asset position
SLIDE 6
Economic Strength
19.8% 14.4% 10.8% 32.9% 28.2% 24.3% Real GDP Employment Population Alberta Canada
Growth in select indicators 2002-2012
SLIDE 7
Employment and Migration
(20) (10)
- 10
20 30 40 50 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 thousands Employment Growth (q/q) Net Migration
SLIDE 8
Q2 - Actual Results
Operational Plan 6 Month Estimate Q2 Actual
- Operational Revenue
- Operational Expense
- Disaster/Emergency Assistance
- Operational Deficit/Surplus
$19 B $19 B $15 M $58 M deficit $20.4 B $19.3 B $ 458 M $1.1 B surplus
Fiscal year end operational balance range: $250 M surplus to $250 M deficit
SLIDE 9
Oil Price Differential
50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 $ WTI WCS
$40 $10 $15 $30
SLIDE 10
Market Access
Market access the biggest factor affecting
- il revenue
- Opening new markets
- Washington D.C. visits
- Asia
- Canadian Energy Strategy
SLIDE 11
Flood Costs Flood spending forecast
- $4.3 B this year
- $3.1 B federal government
- $1.2 B Alberta government
SLIDE 12
Flood Costs
$625 M $139 M Cash cards, First Nations housing, purchasing homes in floodway, Hand-up Plan for small business, etc. Roads, bridges, erosion repair, etc.
$764 M for initial requirement to support Albertans, businesses and communities.
SLIDE 13
Revised Budget Forecast
*Budget Balance Sheet Forecast *Revised Balance Sheet Forecast
Contingency Account $0.7 B Heritage Fund and other funds $18.5 B Net Assets $42.3 B
*at March 31, 2014
$2.6 B
- $18.5 B
$42.5 B
Budget Estimate - Capital Plan Revised Capital Plan Forecast
Capital Plan Spending $5.2 B $5.7 B
Budget Estimate - Operational Plan Revised Operational Forecast
Operational Revenue $37.7 B Operational Expense $38.1 B Operational Deficit $451 M $42.7 B $42.7 B Operational Surplus $15 M
SLIDE 14