An analysis of B.C.s Climate Leadership Plan December 5, 2016 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

An analysis of B.C.’s Climate Leadership Plan

December 5, 2016

Table of Contents

• Collaboration
• Purpose
• Methods

– Approach – Scenarios – Assumptions

• Results

– Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Abatement – Renewable Energy

• Conclusion and Next Steps

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Collaboration

Commissioned

3

Purpose

• Our aim is to determine and make publicly available:
• A reference case on provincial carbon pollution to 2050
• Provincial carbon pollution with climate leadership plan policies and the

federal carbon price floor to 2050

• Sector by sector emissions and compare with the climate leadership plan to

2050

• Renewable energy and energy efficiency for both the reference case and

under the climate leadership plan and federal carbon price

• We also would like to support next steps with the province

4

Methods - Approach

Navius CIMS/GEEM model (based

• n Clean Energy Canada analysis)

Reference Scenario Climate Leadership Plan and Federal Carbon Floor Price

• Annual carbon pollution
• Sector emissions
• Energy use and type

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Methods - Scenarios

Reference Scenario

• Existing policies including:
• Carbon tax $30 t/CO2eq
• Clean Energy Act – 93% non-emitting

sources

• Low-carbon fuel standard, 10% by

2020

• Existing building codes
• Clean Energy Vehicle Program @ $5000

per vehicle, to 2020

• LNG performance standard – met at

the facility

• Landfill Gas
• 45% diversion organic waste by 2020
• Federal light and heavy duty vehicle

standard

Climate Leadership Plan & Fed. Price

• Existing policies, plus:
• Carbon tax $50 by 2022
• 45% methane emission reduction
• Low-carbon fuel standard increased to

15% by 2030

• Regulations that require more efficient

natural gas equipment

• Net-zero ready building standard after

2032

• Upstream natural gas electrification
• Industrial boilers post 2020 90% efficient
• 90% diversion of organics by 2030
• Extend clean energy vehicle program to

2030 and incentives for freight natural gas

• 100% clean energy on incremental

additions

6

Methods - Assumptions

• Forestry:

y: Deforestation, afforestation and forest management activities are not included in the model, but we do include the B.C. government’s estimates of these activities in 2050.

• LNG:

G: LNG production reaches 12 MT/yr in 2020, 36 MT/yr in 2025 and 48 MT/ yr in 2030

• Natural Ga

l Gas: :

• Natural gas production for LNG comes 75% from B.C. 25% from Alberta
• Natural gas production rises to 5.4 bcf/day in 2020 and plateaus at 9.1

bcf/day

• Natural gas production not for LNG remains flat at 4.2 bcf/day
• Methane losses account for 0.5% of natural gas production
• Othe

her e exclu luded p poli licies

• Carbon neutral government – Model can’t account for commitments
• Federal clean fuel standard – Announced after final drafts & insufficient

detail

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Results – Carbon Pollution

Reference case CLP & federal carbon price BC 2020 target

• 30% from 2005, based on

federal target BC 2050 target CLP & federal carbon price with forestry abatement

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Annual emissions in Mt CO2e 53 MT GAP 41 MT GAP 8

Results – Carbon Pollution

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2020 2030 2040 2050

Reference emissions, MtCO2e/yr Buildings Transport Industry and Utilities (excluding gas) NG and LNG

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2020 2030 2040 2050 CLP & federal carbon price emissions Mt CO2e/yr 9

Results – Reductions relative to reference case

2 4 6 8 10 12 2020 2030 2040 2050

CLP & federal carbon price abatement in Mt CO2e

Buildings Transport Industry and Utilities (excluding gas) NG and LNG

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Results – Comparison between climate leadership plan and this analysis - 2050

Cli lima mate L Leadershi hip Pla lan ( n (MTCO2e

2eq)

Thi his A Ana nalys lysis (MT (MTCO CO2e

2eq)

NG & G & L LNG 5.0 4.0 Ind Industry & y & Ut Utili lities 2.0 2.9 Trans nsport 3.0 1.0 Build lding ngs 2.0 2.7 TO TOTAL 12.0 10.6

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Results – Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

36% 44% 55% 62% 64% 56% 45% 38% 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2,800

Reference case, 2030 CLP & federal carbon price, 2030 Reference case, 2050 CLP & federal carbon price, 2050

Energy Consumption in PJ

Fossil Fuel Renewable

12

Conclusion and Next Steps

• Emi

missions ns c cont ntinu nue t to g grow: Emissions are expected to grow from today out to 2030, by 8 MTCO2eq excluding potential forestry sequestration.

• Reduction g

n gap: : There remains a 53 MTCO2eq gap in 2050, 41 MTCO2eq if government estimates of forest sequestration are included

• Fossil f

l fuels ls r rema main d n domi mina nant nt: : Fossil fuel use remains 56% of energy supply in 2030.

• Next s

steps – – p poli licy d y details ls a and nd ne new a actions ns: :

• Existing commitments in the climate leadership plan require details and

funding and implementation

• Additional action is needed to reduce emissions in-line with B.C. legislated

2050 target

• Going forward, PICS, Pembina and Clean Energy Canada are committed to

supporting the development and implementation of these next steps.

13

Contacts

Syb ybil S l Seitzing nger – – PIC ICSDi Dir@uvic.c .ca Matt H Horne ne – – ma matth@ h@pemb mbina na.o .org Jeremy M y Moorho house – – je jeremy@ y@cle leane nene nergycana nada.o .org

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Climate Plan and Our Analysis Sector Policy Coverage

Se Sector CLP P Poli licies Thi his a ana nalys lysis p poli licies Natural gas and LNG Methane, upstream natural gas electrification Methane, upstream natural gas electrification Industry & Utilities Energy efficiency gas boilers, incentives gas equipment, 100% RE electricity Energy efficiency gas boilers, 100% RE electricity, waste strategy Buildings Energy efficient building equipment, net-zero ready buildings, waste strategy Energy efficient building equipment, net-zero ready buildings Transportation LCFS, Clean Energy Vehicle Program, LNG ferries, NG freight, LCFS, Clean Energy Vehicle Program, LNG ferries and renewable NG freight

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