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An introduction into multi-region input-output modelling
Manfred Lenzen Manfred Lenzen ISA, The University of Sydney Australia
with thanks to Tommy Wiedmann and Barney Foran for some of the slides
An introduction into multi-region input-output modelling Manfred - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
An introduction into multi-region input-output modelling Manfred - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
An introduction into multi-region input-output modelling Manfred Lenzen Manfred Lenzen ISA, The University of Sydney Australia with thanks to Tommy Wiedmann and Barney Foran for some of the slides Recommended introductory reading A common
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FUNCTIONAL
direct
A common problem in impact modeling
FUNCTIONAL UNIT
?
direct effects complete supply- chain analysis
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National Accounting
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to
Basic input-output structure
from to
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The input-output round-robin
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- M L E T S B M L E T S B M L E T S B M L E T S B M L E T S B M L E T S B
Supplier level:
∞
. . . . 2
The infinite supply-chain
Iron ore Mining machinery
Organisation
Mining Legal Steel Trans. Banking Elect.
1 On-site
Boundary Upstream Downstream
Product 2 Product 1 Consumer Industry
Vehicle Iron ore
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Input-output theory I
Source: Wiedmann
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Input-output theory II
Source: Wiedmann
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Input-output theory III
Source: Wiedmann
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Demand-pull model
Source: Foran et al., 2005
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Supply-push model
Source: Foran et al., 2005
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ONOMY INDUSTRIES CONSUMERS DUCTS
Environmental satellite accounts
ENVIRON- MENT ECONO EXTENSIONS EXTENSIONS PRODUC
Source: Wiedmann
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ONOMY INDUSTRIES Financial transactions CONSUMERS … DUCTS ECONO Financial transactions … ENVIRON- MENT EXTENSIONS
energy use, carbon emissions, water use, pollutants, raw material extractions, waste, land use
EXTENSIONS
…
PRODUC
Source: Wiedmann
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PRODUCTS ONOMY INDUSTRIES CONSUMERS
Industries
DUCTS PR ENVIRON- MENT ECONO EXTENSIONS
energy use, carbon emissions, water use, pollutants, raw material extractions, waste, land use
EXTENSIONS
…
Industries use products… … and energy, water, etc.
PRODUC
Source: Wiedmann
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PRODUCTS ONOMY INDUSTRIES CONSUMERS
Consumers buy products…
DUCTS PR ENVIRON- MENT ECONO EXTENSIONS
energy use, carbon emissions, water use, pollutants, raw material extractions, waste, land use
EXTENSIONS …
Consumers buy products… … and use energy, water, etc.
PRODUC
Source: Wiedmann
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Environmental input-output analysis: theory
Source: Foran et al., 2005
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IO tables and satellite accounts: a successful marriage
Source: Foran et al., 2005
Input Input Input Input-
- output
- utput
- utput
- utput tables
tables tables tables Satellite Satellite Satellite Satellite accounts accounts accounts accounts for each indicator for each indicator for each indicator for each indicator
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Environmental input-output analysis: applications – a University
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An airport proposal EIS
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A comparison of organic farms
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LCAs of wind turbines
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Wind turbine production
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Household consumption baskets
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Household emissions catchment
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System closure – Capital flow long-term accounting
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SAMs
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SAM multipliers
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Household spending rounds – the Brazilian trickle-up effect
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Household spending rounds – the Brazilian trickle-up effect
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Production Layer Decomposition
Source: Foran et al., 2005
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Production layers
1. 10.
Employment Income Government revenue 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 Income ($)
Wheat & other grains
rem 3 2 1 dir
0.1 1.
Land disturbance Water use Primary energy GHG emissions Gross operating surplus Imports Exports
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Employment (min)
Wheat & other grains
rem 3 2 1 dir
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Carbon Footprint (t CO2)
Area plots
Car Company Direct suppliers Suppliers of Suppliers … Source: Wiedmann
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System completeness tests
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A corporate example
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Structural Path Analysis
Source: Foran et al., 2005
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Structural Path Analysis
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1.2
Wheat & other grains
Wh 0.687 (0; 67.%) El Wh 0.0234 (1; 2.3%) Ch Wh 0.0173 (1; 1.7%) Fo Wh 0.0114 (1; 1.1%) Sc Cg Wh 0.00936 (2; 0.91%) Fe Wh 0.00925 (1; 0.9%) GHG emissions (kg CO2-e/$)
Structural path analysis
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 GHG emissions (kg CO2-e)
rem 3 2 1 dir
Fe Wh 0.00925 (1; 0.9%) Wt Wh 0.00874 (1; 0.85%) Rd Wh 0.00853 (1; 0.83%) El Rf Wh 0.00487 (2; 0.47%) Rf Wh 0.00485 (1; 0.47%) Oi Fo Wh 0.00343 (2; 0.33%) El Wt Wh 0.00263 (2; 0.25%) El Ch Wh 0.00261 (2; 0.25%) El St Wh 0.00259 (2; 0.25%) Fr Sc Cg Wh 0.0022 (3; 0.21%) Ap Wh 0.00165 (1; 0.16%) Bc Mp Ho Wh 0.00162 (3; 0.16%)
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Core topic: Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) frameworks
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What is an MRIO table?
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AUS Iron
- re
BRA steel AUS BRA CHN GER JAP RUS UK USA
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The Eora tables www.worldmrio.com www.worldmrio.com
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− Detail: 187 countries, 15000 sectors LCA and footprint − Dynamics: Time series 1990-2010 trends and scenarios − Flexibility: Basic prices, margins and taxes − Transparency: Close adherence to the raw data − Uncertainty: Standard deviation estimates decision-making
Guiding principles
− Uncertainty: Standard deviation estimates decision-making − Reliability: Info on constraint violations quality assurance − Timeliness: Delay of 2 years − Budget: 12 person-years initially, < 2 person-years /y continually; − Openness: Public, free availability for research
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Conceptual framework
Raw data Initial estimate Constraints Optimiser Structure Hardware MRIO table Web-deployed data, visualisations, diagnostics
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Raw data
Input-output tables from 74 national statistical offices, Input-output data from Eurostat, IDE-JETRO and OECD, UN National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, UN National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, UN National Accounts Official Data, UN Comtrade international trade database UN Servicetrade international trade database
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The Eora tables: 187 countries 15,909 sectors 5 valuations 5 valuations 20 years = 3 Terabytes
- f information
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The finer structure
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Original sectors – rectangular matrices
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Some qualifications …
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Some qualifications: Data conflict
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Some qualifications: Uncertainty
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Website www.worldmrio.com
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Website www.worldmrio.com
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Website www.worldmrio.com
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Expandable heat map
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Expandable heat map
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Expandable heat map
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Data profile
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Optimisation run diagnostics
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Input-output analysis in ecology
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