Economic Outlook For Oshawa Derek Burleton VP & Deputy Chief - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Economic Outlook For Oshawa Derek Burleton VP & Deputy Chief Economist TD Economics May 2018 Global Economies Break Pattern Of Serial Disappointment Average Annual Growth %, 16Q4 - 17Q4 3.0 Average growth 2.5 Range for trend growth 2.0
VP & Deputy Chief Economist TD Economics May 2018
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Canada Eurozone U.S. Japan Average growth Range for trend growth
Source: National Statistical Agencies via Haver Analytics, TD Economics.
Average Annual Growth %, 16Q4 - 17Q4
World economy close to full capacity
Not all economies facing the same threat of inflation:
Not fully synchronous central bank response
Geopolitical (Syria, Iran) Trade war Corporate debt Episodes of financial volatility/stress
5
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 U.S. 5 Year Treasury Note Canada 5 Year Benchmark Bond German 5 to 8 Years Securities
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bank of Canada, Deutsche Bundesbank, Bank of England, TD Economics
Change From Oct. 1, 2017
6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Financial Stress Index
Source: TD Economics
Bear Stearns Lehman Euro Area Crisis 2018 Sell- Off
60% Probability of Recession 35% Probability of Recession 20% Probability of Recession
7
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8
Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18
Median Bloomberg Forecast for 2018 Real GDP Growth, %
Source: Bloomberg survey as of April 2018, TD Economics
President asks for tax bill on his desk by Christmas Tax bill signed into law = $1.5 trn Budget = $300 bn
8
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2002-2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Real GDP
Source: Statistics Canada, TD Economics
Quarterly Real GDP, Year/Year % Change Forecast
9
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Atlantic Manitoba Saskatchewan Ontario Canada Quebec British Columbia Alberta Real GDP , Year/Year % Change, 2018-19 Average
Source: Statistics Canada, forecast by TD Economics as at March 2018
National Average
10
2 4 6 8 Manufacturing Shipments Employment Retail Trade Average Home Prices Canada Ontario
Source: TD Economics , *Latest 6 months of data available compared to same period one year ago
6-month average*, Y/Y % change
11
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Retail Trade Primary and Utilities Public Admin Accomodation & Food Healthcare Construction FIRE Culture& Recreation Educational Manufacturing Scientific & Tech Services Transportation & Warehousing Wholesale Trade
Average Employment Growth, % Change (2018-19F)
Source: Statistics Canada, forecast by TD Economics as of April 2018
12
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
0.0 0.5 1.0 01-02 03-04 05-06 07-08 09-10 11-12 13-14 15-16 17-18f Budget Balance (left scale) Net Debt (right scale)
Source: 2017 Federal Fiscal Reference Tables and 2017/2018 Government Budgets & Fiscal Updates
% of Nominal GDP % of Nominal GDP
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F NA Auto Sales (lhs) Canadian Auto Production (rhs)
Source: WardsAuto.com; Forecast by TD Economics as of December 2016
Units (000's) Forecast Units (000's)
14
2 4 6 8 10 12 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Unemployment Rate, %
Source: Statistics Canada, TD Economics
2001-2017 Average
15
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Net International Migration, Greater Toronto Area, Persons
Source: Statistics Canada, TD Economics
16
15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Existing Home Sales, Greater Toronto Area, Units
Source: CREA, forecast by TD Economics as of March 2018
Forecast Fair Housing Plan Announced B20 Implemented
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 GVA GTA Durham Region
Source: CREA, TD Economics. Last data point March 2018
Seller's Territory Balanced Market Buyer's Territory
Existing Home Sales-to-listings ratio (12-mma)
18
5 10 15 20 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: CREA, forecast by TD Economics as of March, 2018
Average Existing Home Prices, Greater Toronto Area, Year/Year % Change Forecast
19
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