Impact of COVID-19 on GCF projects Jamal Gore Principal consultant - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Impact of COVID-19 on GCF projects

Jamal Gore Principal consultant

GCF insight #15

Based on our 15th GCF insight. The study was conducted solely by E Co. and is independent of the GCF.

Status as of 25 August 2020

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Spotlight on COVID-19 and GCF projects

Special edition GCF insight #15 survey

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Stakeholder views on how COVID-19 has affected their projects

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Stakeholder expectations for longer term impacts on project development and execution Survey conducted May-June 2020

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Methodology

The report is based mainly on primary data collection and literature review Online survey: 121 respondents

• 11% NDAs
• 22% current and prospective AEs
• 37% consultants
• 27% civil society and others

Stakeholder interviews

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Impact on GCF projects

By late May, 62% had already experienced delays greater than 1 month

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Middle income countries most likely to report significant delays (73%)

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LDCs were most likely to report no effect so far (21%)

88% of respondents reported delays to their GCF-related timelines

“Usually the GCF requires attendance sheets and other supporting documents. We’ve already finished three virtual consultations…[but] we are still not sure if that will be accepted by the GCF.”

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Impact on GCF projects

47% expected delays of 1-3 months 34% expected delays of 4+ months

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LDCs most likely to anticipate severe delays (42%)

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SIDS (55%) and middle income countries (53%) most likely to anticipate delays of 1-3 months Delayed reaction in LDCs?

97% of respondents expected ongoing delays to project preparation

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Impact on co-financing

Respondents expect COVID-19 to delay or reduce financing commitments

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Donors reprogramming funding to support emergency response

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Governments borrowing to extend social safety nets and stimulate economies

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Private investors reconsidering exposure

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Impact on co-financing

Only 8% of respondents expect “no effect” on co-financing commitments

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69% of NDAs expect it to become “a lot harder” to secure government co-financing commitments

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AEs (26%) and consultants (22%) less likely to expect co-financing to become “a lot harder”

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Impact on climate resilience and GHG reductions

GHG mitigation: short term gains, but long-term uncertainty Climate resilience: COVID-19 and climate change both have disproportionate impact on poor and vulnerable people

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World Food Program: number of people facing acute hunger will double from 135 million to 265 million

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Potential threat to climate-related emergency response: storm shelters and cooling centres

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Challenge for climate-focused income diversification: tourism, casual labor and market stalls affected by restrictions

“If there is a hurricane this year, then we are really in a difficult situation.”

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Impact on GHG reductions

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Impact on climate resilience

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Looking ahead – what we need

Short term: unstick the GCF project development and execution process

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More administrative flexibility – 2019 IEU report notes GCF’s “compliance driven” model discourages risk-taking

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Increase use of national experts when expats can’t fly in

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Unbundle work packages and change the sequence of activities

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Creative use of electronic tools for stakeholder engagement during project development

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Looking ahead – what we need

Longer term: Make the GCF project development and execution processes more resilient

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Use our analytical tools back to strengthen the project cycle! Use GCF Readiness and Project funding to help “build back better”

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Green recovery support: transport, energy, construction, jobs

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Anti-fragile food systems: climate resilient agriculture, local production, strengthening value chains Download GCF insight #15 at https://www.ecoltdgroup.com/gcf-insight-15/