INVESTMENT OUTLOOK ISSUES INVESTORS SHOULD CONSIDER NOW STEPHAN - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
THE THOMAS JEFFERSON INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY THIRD ANNUAL ECONOMIC CONFERENCE INVESTMENT OUTLOOK ISSUES INVESTORS SHOULD CONSIDER NOW STEPHAN CASSADAY, CFP, CFS PRESIDENT & CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER CASSADAY & COMPANY, INC
ISSUES INVESTORS SHOULD CONSIDER NOW
STEPHAN CASSADAY, CFP, CFS PRESIDENT & CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER CASSADAY & COMPANY, INC WWW.CASSADAY.COM
SECURITIES OFFERED THROUGH ROYAL ALLIANCE ASSOCIATES, MEMBER FINRA/SIPC. INVESTMENT ADVISORY AND INSURANCE SERVICES OFFERED THROUGH CASSADAY AND COMPANY, A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISER NOT AFFILIATED WITH ROYAL ALLIANCE ASSOCIATES
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF TAX REFORM POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT ARE THE MARKETS OVERVALUED? HISTORY LESSONS THE REAL BUBBLE CONCLUSIONS LONG TERM TRENDS
KILLARNEY IRELAND
IMPOSSIBLE TO PLAN OR KNOW UNTIL AN ACTUAL BILL GETS PASSED ANY QUESTIONS?
TAX PLANNING IS IMPORTANT BUT VISIBILITY IS NECESSARY DON’T LET THE TAX TAIL WAG THE INVESTMENT DOG
Source: Bloomberg, 12/31/15. Average asset allocation investor return is based on an analysis by DALBAR, Inc., which utilizes the net of aggregate mutual fund sales, redemptions and exchanges each month as a measure of investor behavior.
Asset Class Performance During Various Treasury Rate Environments (1995–2016)
Sources: Barclays Live, Credit Suisse, Alerian and Bloomberg, 12/31/16. The average 10-Year Treasury rate over the past 20 years is 4%. “Low” is defined as below 4%. Commodities are represented by the Dow-Jones UBS Commodity Index. TIPS is represented by U.S. Generic Treasury Inflation Protected Bond Securities. Gold is represented by the U.S. dollar spot price of one troy ounce. Core Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Senior Loans are represented by the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index. International Equities are represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Master Limited Partnerships are represented by the Alerian MLP Index. Emerging Market Equities are represented by the MSCI Emerging Market Index. Large-Cap Equities are represented by the Russell 1000
guarantee future results.
Source: FactSet, Russell Investment Group, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Source: FactSet, Russell Investment Group, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Source: FactSet, Thomson Reuters, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset
annualized total returns, measured monthly, beginning September 30,
total variation in total returns that can be explained by forward P/E ratios.
Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/31/16. Company logos are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. The mention of specific companies does not constitute a recommendation on behalf of any fund or OppenheimerFunds, Inc. Correlation expresses the strength of relationship between distribution of returns of two sets of data. The correlation coefficient is always between +1 (perfect positive correlation) and –1 (perfect negative correlation). A perfect correlation occurs when the two series being compared behave in exactly the same manner. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Source: Compustat, FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; S&P 500 individual company 10k filings, S&P Index Alert. EPS levels are based on
Earnings estimates are Standard & Poor’s consensus analyst
not indicative of future returns
2006-2016 S&P annualized return 5.40% 2006-2016 real GDP annualized growth 1.50% 1985-2005 S&P annualized return 8.20% 1985-2005 real GDP annualized growth 3.20%
THE CURRENT BULL MARKET IS OLD BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS BUT INVESTORS ARE NOT OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC. SINCE 2009 $800B HAS COME OUT OF EQUITY FUNDS AND $1.5T HAS GONE TO BOND FUNDS FEAR OF SLOW GROWTH HAS CAUSED TREPIDATION BUT 2017 GLOBAL GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO BE FRACTIONALLY BELOW THE LONG TERM AVERAGE. VALUATIONS ARE HISTORICALLY ABOVE AVERAGE BUT CAN STAY ELEVATED AND EVEN GO HIGHER. POLITICAL EVENTS LIKE TAX REFORM (OR NOT), ELECTIONS, FISCAL CLIFF, BREXIT, GREXIT
AT SOME POINT AN EVENT WILL END THE MARKET’S RUN BUT THESE ARE ALWAYS A SURPRISE AND NEVER PREDICTED IN ADVANCE.
THE WEIGHT OF OF THE EVID VIDENCE SU SUPP PPORTS A A BULL LL CAS ASE FOR OR EQUITIES.
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ISSUES INVESTORS SHOULD CONSIDER NOW
STEPHAN CASSADAY, CFP, CFS PRESIDENT & CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER CASSADAY & COMPANY, INC WWW.CASSADAY.COM
SECURITIES OFFERED THROUGH ROYAL ALLIANCE ASSOCIATES, MEMBER FINRA/SIPC. INVESTMENT ADVISORY AND INSURANCE SERVICES OFFERED THROUGH CASSADAY AND COMPANY, A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISER NOT AFFILIATED WITH ROYAL ALLIANCE ASSOCIATES