Market Analysis Findings 1 Project Overview and Status We are here - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Market Analysis Findings

Project Overview and Status

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We are here Completing market assessment and service evaluation. Establishing framework and approach to develop Transit Plan.

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Connections2025

Market Analysis, Service Evaluation, and Plan Framework

Market Analysis Components

§ Population, Employment and Demographics – Where are the transit supportive densities located? § Land Use and Development – How can future densities, land use mix, and street patterns influence transit? § Mobility Needs – Where are people going and how are people traveling?

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Market Analysis Goals

Combined with the service evaluation, the goal is to define a geographic context for transit markets.

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Live-Work-Play All-day, all-week spontaneous use network Targets commuter, low-income, and senior mobility needs

Targeted Mobility Lifestyle Mobility

Rapid Central Texas Population Growth

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Between 2015 and 2025, population will: § Increase by 20% in Austin § Increase by 29% in Travis County Between 2015 and 2040, population will: § Increase by 45% in Austin § Increase by 80% in Travis County

Employment Trends

§ Unemployment rate has decreased dramatically in the last five years. § Large employers are located in the northern parts of Austin and adjacent communities. § Tech Ridge, Jollyville, Domain, Windsor Park, and Mueller are projected to see greatest employment growth.

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Central Texas Demographic Trends

§ Analyzed groups that typically have higher propensity to use transit:

• Age groups
• Low-income residents and households
• Minority residents

§ Analysis lends to:

• Geographic context for each group and their relationship to current

transit services

• Identifies likely future growth in key market segments

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Market Segment: College-Aged Residents

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§ Over 80 percent of UT students live within 5 miles of campus. § Need to focus on other vital user groups to generate ridership and strengthen the system. § Serving UT , ACC, and

• ther colleges will

remain a key factor.

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Data detailing the UT students’ locations reveal that: § 50% of total UT students live within 1 mile of campus. § 80% of total UT students live within 5 miles of campus.

Market Segment: Young Professionals

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§ Studies show this age group has higher propensity to use transit. § Highest concentrations in the more urban areas with access to transit. § Age group expected to get smaller over time.

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Market Segment: Seniors

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§ Dramatic increase in the senior population. § Suburban senior populations increasing faster than urban areas. § Unique mobility needs associated with this group.

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Market Segment: Persons with Disabilities

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§ Percentage of persons with disabilities in Travis County is increasing. § Unemployment is decreasing. § Roughly one-third are also seniors. § Increasing transit use requires several mobility solutions.

Market Segment: Minority Residents

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§ Minority residents represent over 50 percent

• f system ridership,

consistent with at-large population. § Population is expected to increase, with Travis County becoming minority-majority. § Neighborhoods with higher minority densities are located in areas with transit access.

Source: American Community Survey 2009-2013 5-Year Estimates

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Market Segment: Low-Income Residents

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§ One in six Travis County residents is low-income. § Some lower income urban neighborhoods are evolving to attract higher income residents. § Low-income residents have been relocating to affordable areas outside

• f the urban core.

Source: American Community Survey 2009-2013 5-Year Estimates

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Land Use Challenges for Transit

§ Population and employment density – mix of dense urban to auto-centric suburban to low density rural. § Efficient mixed use (urban) versus separation of uses (suburban). § Need for integrated network of streets, bike paths, and sidewalks that are efficient and understandable. § Housing connected to jobs and schools:

• Affordable housing becoming more disconnected.
• Long work commutes pressure the transportation system.

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Land Use Typologies

• Walkable
• Bikeable
• High density
• Mixed-use

Core Urban

• Walkable
• Bikeable
• Medium density
• Mixed-use

Non-Core Urban

• Auto-centric
• Low density
• Separate

residential and large shopping

Suburban

• Auto-centric
• Very low

density

• Primarily

residential

Rural

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Lifestyle Mobility Targeted Mobility Lifestyle Mobility Targeted Mobility

Future Land Use and Development

§ Future development benefits from linking transit and land use.

• New developments focused
• n higher density mixed-

uses.

• More attention on mix of

housing options, including affordable units.

§ Emphasis on enhanced transit and active mobility.

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PROPOSED TOD ‘THE ARNOLD’ PROPOSED TOD ‘ELYSIAN AT MUELLER’ PROPOSED TOD ‘FOURTH&’

Travel Patterns – Top Transit Patterns (2015)

§ UT-related trips are the most frequent trips made. § Short-distance internal trips within a single neighborhood or to adjacent neighborhoods.

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Travel Patterns – Commute

§ Community and regional commute equally important for Austin workers. § Bi-directional demand between Austin and suburbs. § Transit key to mitigating increases in commute congestion with population increase of 20-29% by 2025 and 45-80% by 2040.

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Mode Split Comparison

§ Transit commuting in Austin higher than peer cities. § Mode split affects both quality of life and congestion. § Requires coordinated effort among all partners.

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Market Strengths

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Market Challenges

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Key Connections 2025 Market Targets

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Next Steps – Upcoming Board Interactions

May

Present Service Findings

June

Framework and Recommendation Strategies

August

Draft Transit Plan

October

Recap Public Outreach Feedback

November

Adopt Final Transit Plan

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