The Perfect Storm: what is happening to the World ? 12 th November - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Perfect Storm: what is happening to the World ?

12th November 2013 Imperial College Professor Sir John Beddington Oxford Martin School, Oxford University

Global food security warnings were highlighted early in 2008

High-Level Conference on World Food Security: the Challenges

• f Climate Change and Bioenergy. Rome, 3-5 June 2008

Alternative choices

• Large and small-scale

irrigation projects

• Precision farming
• Infrastructure for

development, e.g. roads for access to markets in developing countries

Climate and food security

Undernourishment data versus the MDG target

Source: Oxfam (2010) Data cited from FAO Hunger Statistics (from 1969 to 2006); UN (2009)

2007-08 Food price spike Millions

75 125 175 225

Extra 44m in extreme poverty

2011 FAO Index rise

2004 June 2008 March 2012 Feb 2011

2020 Water Stress: Rate of Change

Source: WWF

Climate change negotiations

The Copenhagen Accord provided a commitment to hold the increase in global temperatures below 2°C. More than 70 countries submitted emissions reduction targets. However, there was no legally binding agreement. More formal UN agreement on the 2°C limit at Cancun in December 2010, but still no legally binding agreement Outcomes included a decision by Parties to adopt a universal ‘legal agreement’ on climate change as soon as possible and no later than 2015. So COP19…

26 November – 7 December 2012

In key ways the next 20 years are already determined

The global community will have to contend with a number of significant challenges Urbanisation: 2010 first year urban population exceeded the rural population ~55% 2025 Climate change: GHG now in the atmosphere will drive changes up to 2030. Population increase: An extra billion people by 2025 Consumption will increase with prosperity

Challenge: Global Population Predictions

Source: UN DESA – Population Division, 2011

Total Population Year Interval 3 billion 1959 4 Billion 1974 15 years 5 Billion 1987 13 years 6 Billion 1998 11 years 7 Billion 2011 13 years 8 Billion* 2025 14 years 9 Billion* 2043 18 years Historical progression of Global Population

* Denotes predicted year

Increasing numbers exposed to hazards

Challenge: An inevitable increase in urbanisation

• Impact: Developing countries will be building the

equivalent of a city of 1 million people every five days between now and 2050

• Example: In Africa, by 2050 an additional 800m

people are predicted to be living in cities (62% total population).

• Issue: Urban populations more vulnerable to

shocks: natural hazards, supply of food+ utilities

Source: People and the Planet, Royal Society, 2012

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Population (millions)

Urban population Rural population

Urban / rural population

More vulnerable people Aged >65

Challenge: Urbanisation 2025

(UN DESA – Population Division, 2010)

People living in urban coastal flood zones in 2060

Urban growth likely to occur in areas increasingly vulnerable to the environment

Source: Foresight Migration and Global Environmental Change 2011

State of play

Currently 884 million people lack access to clean water

Water Availability

Water availability

Weather: 7.5 billion USD lost to extreme weather in 2010 Land degradation: 1.5 billion depend on degrading land Hunger

Poverty: 1.4 billion live on

<USD1.25 / day Waste: 1.3 billion tonnes of food wasted each year

UN Human Development Index

• High
• Medium
• Low

David MacKay - 2009

Dilemma: Taking people out of poverty increases consumption, further increasing demand for resources

General food consumption Meat consumption

Future challenge: Increasing demands on resources

Anticipated demand by 2050 (FAO) Global average yield (tonnes/ha)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Wheat Maize

Source: USDA PDS database 8 4

2800

100

• 40%

4500 6900 4200

600 900 800 1500 3100 4500 700 3500

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Existing Withdrawals 2030 Withdrawal Basins with deficits Basins with surplus Existing supply Billion m

3

Surface Water Ground Water Agriculture Industry Municipal and domestic Surface Water Ground Water Agriculture Industry Municipal and domestic

Current and 2030 water deficits

PNAS, online Aug 2012 0.1% 2.1% 0.1% 2.1% Expected area covered under “normal” historical conditions

Courtesy of Tim Benton

Global temperature anomalies

2011: Unprecedented summer temperatures in Texas

Source: John Nielson-Gammon

Increase in severe weather events

Cyclone Nargis 2008, Minimum pressure 962mb with maximum sustained winds - 135mph. Hurricane Sandy 2012, Minimum central pressure 946mb with maximum sustained winds - 80mph.

Current projections indicate 2°C targets will be exceeded

‘Turn Down the Heat’: World Bank/Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact research for Climate Analytics 2012

Challenges up to 2030

Challenges

• Population – 1 billion more people
• Urbanisation – population increase concentrated in cities
• A more prosperous world, but also a further strain on

resources

• Complex demographic trends
• Migration to vulnerable areas
• Climate change will be happening – a risk multiplier

Overall: an increased vulnerability to shocks and pressures

2030

Source Food +38% FAO (TOWARDS 2030/2050) Water 40% gap in supply/demand Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand model Energy +54% OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 Emissions (GHG) +37% OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030

What about the past?

There has been a failure to recognise the:

• value of Natural Capital to economic development
• linkages between food, water and energy systems
• Importance of ecosystem services

The recent past:

Result of increasing food production

Pie charts and map show the extent of areas of degraded land in the world and the location of degraded soils Source: UNEP 1997 and GRID Arendal 2001

“Of 11.5 billion ha of vegetated land on earth, around 24% has undergone human induced soil degradation”

Indicators of biological diversity worsening

Metric adopted by the Convention of Biological Diversity

Exploiting resources: Forests

The result of increased fish production:

Unsustainable fisheries

Source: Mora et al (2009) PLoS Biology 7(6)e1000131

Average management effectiveness

• One billion people rely
• n fish as their primary

protein source

IFPRI 2008

• A third of the global

animal production (by weight), comes from

• ceans, seas, rivers

and lakes

FAO 2006

• 75% of the major marine

fish stocks are either depleted, overexploited

• r being fished at their

biological limit

World Summit on Sustainable Development 2002

The result of increasing energy production:

Green house gas emissions

• Dissolution or inhibition of

calcium carbonate formation

• Calciferous species affected e.g.

crustaceans, corals.

• Impacts for: food security,

tourism, coastal economies

Challenge: Ocean acidification

Predicted pH fall from 8.1-7.8 by 2100

• Oceans have absorbed around

30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, altering chemical composition of the ocean

• Dissolved CO2 since 1850s has

decreased Ocean pH by 0.1 (Log scale → 30% increase in acidity)

• Ocean pH decreasing at an

unprecedented rate – species will struggle to keep up

Groundwater extraction

Many aquifers have been over exploited in India Recent mapping shows significant resources in Africa, which must be used carefully

Driptech - small plot irrigation

Source: FAO (2010) / WEO 2010/UNICEF 2010

Energy security:

• Currently, 1.4bn people do not have sufficient electricity.
• It is estimated that in 2030 1.2bn people will still lack access

to electricity

Challenges: Food, water and energy poverty

Food security:

• 925 million people go hungry
• Around 1 billion people suffer from the ‘hidden hunger’
• World population is increasing by 6 million per month
• An extra billion tonnes of cereals will be needed by 2030 (FAO)

Water security:

• 1.2 billion people live in areas affected by physical water scarcity
• 1.6 billion people live in areas affected by economic water scarcity
• 884 million people lack access to clean water
• Poor quality water in Middle East and North Africa costs from 0.5% to 2.5% of GDP.

Stunting

Vitamin A deficiency

Source: Bertrand and Bar-Yam 2011

Knock on effect: Political instability?

US Shale oil/gas reserves having significant impact on US economy

Bakkan formation (North Dakota)

Comparison:

• Minneapolis
• Dallas

Major reserves of fossil fuels

Coal Reserves (1012 BTU) Potentially huge Arctic resources

Challenges and opportunities: Agriculture

Example: Vietnam SRI adopted by over 1 million farmers over 4 years.

• 70-75 per cent decrease in seed use
• 5-9 per cent increase in yield
• 33 per cent less water
• Extra income of US$95-$260 per/ha

In addition: Reduces water use and methane emissions Positive health impacts resulting from lower pesticide and herbicide applications

System of Rice Intensification (SRI)

Designed to benefit farmers with small holdings Increases productivity by maximising management practices not inputs. Benefits seen in over 40 countries

• 100 per cent increase in yield
• 90 per cent reduction in seed
• 50 per cent water saving

Challenges and opportunities: Climatic resilience

Climate Smart Agriculture

Increase productivity, Identify opportunities for carbon sequestration and GHG mitigation, including:

• Precision application of inputs
• Fodder management
• Agro forestry

Risk management: Provide climate risk analysis and short term weather forecasting services

Example: Kenya Agriculture Carbon Project Aim to increase productivity and encourage private enterprise. Builds in carbon sequestration activities. Includes: Reduced tillage Targeted application of fertilisers Residue management Provides technical support to over 60,000 farmers Potential to sequester about 60,000tons of CO2 equivalents per year Diversify farmer income sources Reduce vulnerability of small farmers to climate change.

Challenges and opportunities: Rural renewable energy

Hydropower

• Viable potential capacity: Estimated at 108,000 MW
• Installed capacity: 3046 MW
• Village electrification from small/micro systems

Biogas

• Cattle population produces 6m metric tonnes excrement / annum
• Potential to produce 1.5million m3 biogas / day

Solar

• Radiation intensity: Dry season: 5kWh/m2/day
• Extensive application solar energy for domestic use; water supply; battery charging….

Gas (20.5%) Coal (3.6%) Diesel (29.6%) Hydro (58%)

Energy mix Renewable Energy Small Hydro Power

• UN Industrial Development Organisation implementing projects in China,

India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Zambia, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya….

• Umbrella regional programme with a focus on South-South cooperation to

implement about 100 SHP projects in Africa within the next 3 years

• Example: Lighting Up Rural Africa programme. Pilot projects in rural

communities to:

• Augment on / off grid rural electrification
• Link energy services with productive uses for poverty reduction

1865 1905 1953 Mendel’s Discovery

• f Genes

Genetics Structure of DNA 1983 Plant Transformation 2000 First Plant Genome Sequence 1995 Rice genome Sequenced 2010 2011 Crop Circles ‘Synteny’ NGS 2002

How have we fared thus far?

1001 Arabidopsis genomes sequenced

BBSRC/Rothamsted: 20 by 2032

• Since 1980 the rate of increase in wheat yields has

declined

• Average farm yield of wheat in the UK is currently 8.4

tonnes per hectare

• highest recorded yield 15.6 tonnes/ha in New

Zealand 2010

• Aim to provide the knowledge base and tools to increase

UK wheat yield potential to 20 tonnes/ha through:

• Genotype improvement
• Mitigation of pests and diseases
• soil/root interactions for better water and nutrient

acquisition

• Understanding physiological and environmental

interactions Global cultivation: Area: 240 million hectares Average yield: 3 tonnes/ha

Biotechnology & Sustainable Agriculture

Transforming wheat to emit the aphid alarm pheromone - a natural insect repellent

To produce wheat which can repel aphids and:

• uses less chemical pesticide;
• is non-toxic;
• has a lower carbon footprint;
• repels rather than kills the aphid;
• promote biodiversity (the pheromone attracts

the natural predator);

• uses a naturally occurring process
• increases wheat yields; and therefore
• provides more sustainable agriculture

(E)‐ß‐farnesene, Pre - Application (E)‐ß‐farnesene, Post - Application

Rothamsted Research granted approval from Defra’s Advisory Committee on Releases to the Environment (ACRE) in February for field trials

Global use of biotech crops

Source: Clive James, 2008

UK, a world leader in biotech but all practical application goes on overseas

GM: communicating the value and proportionate risk of new technology

Public concerns are lessening

The importance of communicating

After: Blackmore and Moore, 2008

e.g. Developing new robotic systems

Automated agrochemical application

After: Peets, Blackburn and Godwin, 2007

National Centre for Precision Farming

Harper Adams University college

• launched 26 February
• Knowledge exchange to develop

“smart” agricultural machinery

Technical innovation:

role of engineering in driving forward increasingly efficient agriculture

• Controlled applicator

filling

• Avoidance of

agrochemical loading errors

• Add prescribed

amounts

• Auto Record data
• Reduce total time for

data transfer

• Food safety and

environmental benefits

Under-utilized edible plant diversity

• 12 crops provide 80% of the plant food

consumed globally

• Yet 30,000+ species are known to be edible
• 7000 edible species are semi-domesticated
• More than a billion people rely on such

plant diversity for part of their daily diet

Conservation & sustainable utilisation of yam wild relatives in Madagascar

Waste in types of countries

Eliminating the estimated 30% of food produced but never consumed is an obvious priority

Managing demand

• Informing and

empowering consumers

• Simple, and

consistent information

• Societal

consensus

• Using strong

evidence base

Reducing waste

What about 2030 onwards?

Africa Asia

Global population growth

Source: UNPD, 2011 Nature, October 2011, 478, 300-301

Challenges up to 2050

Challenges

• Population – 2.3 billion more people
• Urbanisation – 70%
• A more prosperous world?
• Complex demographic trends
• Migration to vulnerable areas
• Climate change

2050 (with no policy change)

Source Food +60% FAO (TOWARDS 2030/2050) Water +55% OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 Energy +80% OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 Emissions (GHG) +52% OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050