Welcome to Canberra and the CSIRO Welcome to Canberra and the CSIRO - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Welcome to Canberra and the CSIRO Welcome to Canberra and the CSIRO - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 15, 2023 362 likes •634 views

Welcome to Canberra and the CSIRO Welcome to Canberra and the CSIRO Study tour: Economic Modelling for National Strategies for Sustainable Development Heinz Schandl | Senior Principal Scientist ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES/SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SCIENCES

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SLIDE 1

Welcome to Canberra and the CSIRO

Study tour: Economic Modelling for National Strategies for Sustainable Development

Heinz Schandl | Senior Principal Scientist

ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES/SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SCIENCES PROGRAM

Welcome to Canberra and the CSIRO

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SLIDE 2

Why economic-environment modelling?

  • Sustainable resource use will be instrumental for Asia to ensure

socio-economic development in a world in which resources are more constrained and the absorptive capacity of ecosystems is decreasing rapidly

  • Challenge for public policy to achieve a transition to a Green

Economy enabled by resource efficiency and systems innovation

  • Change will not occur spontaneously but will require well
  • Change will not occur spontaneously but will require well

designed policies

  • Sustainability is a policy domain characterised by complexity,

contestation, uncertainty and ignorance

  • Data, indicators and modelling will establish a knowledge base for

policy making

Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl 2 |

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SLIDE 3

Global challenges and opportunities

  • 3 billion additional middle class consumers by 2030
  • 80% rise in steel and cement demand by 2030
  • Price rises in food, energy, materials and water since 2000
  • Cost of extraction of oil and metals doubling
  • Large spending on natural resource subsidies
  • Converging pressure points of supply security and climate change
  • Converging pressure points of supply security and climate change
  • $2.9 trillion of savings in 2030 through capturing the resource

efficiency potential (3.7 trillion if carbon is priced at 30$ a tonne)

  • Large investment in resource systems needed to satisfy demand
  • Recycling potential for many metals underutilised
  • Prioritisation – housing, transport, energy and food deliver 75% of

savings

3 | Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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SLIDE 4

A changing economic context

4 | Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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SLIDE 5

Focus on the life-cycle of natural resources

5 | Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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SLIDE 6

Rio+20: renewed global support for SDG’s

  • Poverty eradication, enabling sustainable patterns of consumption

and production and managing the natural resource base of social and economic development are important goals for all nations.

  • International collaboration, knowledge exchange and improved

forms of governance for successful implementation.

  • Triple dividend of increased standards of living, equitable

participation in human development, based on a healthy participation in human development, based on a healthy environmental and resource base.

  • Inclusive green economy, sustainable production and

consumption and sustainable use of natural resources

  • Green economy and SCP policies and policy instruments

6 | Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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SLIDE 7

Herman Daly – economics in a full world

  • Allocation – the division of the resource flow among alternative

product uses and producing sectors – through competitive markets

  • Distribution – the division of the resource flow, embodied in

products and services, among different people – justice or fairness

  • f distribution is a separate goal from efficiency and requires

separate policy instruments separate policy instruments

  • Scale – the total volume of the resource flow, the matter-energy

throughput taken from the environment as low-entropy resources and returned to the environment as high-entropy wastes. Scale is relative to environmental carrying capacity – but largely ignored in neo-classical economics

7 | Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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SLIDE 8

Advances in human development in Asia

  • Large achievements have moved

million of people out of poverty

  • Highly non-linear relationship of

human development and natural resource use

  • Different costs of education, life

expectancy and per-capita income

elopment Index (HDI)

expectancy and per-capita income

  • 1970: Globally uniform high-human

development has been restricted by natural resource availability

  • Today: Enough natural resources but

inefficiently used and unevenly distributed

8 |

Human Develo Material and Energy Use, Emissions

Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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SLIDE 9

Absolute and relative decoupling – getting more from less

9 | Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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SLIDE 10

Economic growth and natural resource use in Asia

10 | Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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SLIDE 11

38 billion tonnes of natural resources use in 2008

Domestic Material Consumption (DMC)

  • waste equivalent

40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 illion tonnes Asia-Pacific Rest of World World 70 billion tonnes (2008) Asia-Pacific

  • vertakes (2005)

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10,000 20,000 30,000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Million

Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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Transition to new materials

Increasing recycling and waste challenges

20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 lion tonnes Metal ores and industrial minerals Fossil fuels Construction minerals Biomass

54% 23% 17% 6%

1970 2008

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5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Million

25% 51% 15% 9%

2008

Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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SLIDE 13

Growing trade dependency

400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Million tonnes Metal ores and industrial minerals Fossil fuels Construction minerals Biomass

13 |

  • 200

200 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Mil

Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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SLIDE 14

Reducing material efficiency

1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 kg/US$

Asia-Pacific becomes less efficient Global material efficiency declines

14 |

0.0 0.5 1.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Asia-Pacific Rest of World World

Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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SLIDE 15

Differences between DMC and Material Footprint

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Tonnes per capita Year

Australia

DMC MF 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Tonnes per capita Year

Japan

DMC MF

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Year 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Tonnes per capita Year

China

DMC MF

Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

Landing point 25-30 tonnes per capita 2050 9 billion people 225 billion tonnes of natural resource use 4 times of today

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Future of material use, example of China

Domestic Material Consumption (DMC)

30,000 40,000 50,000 illion tonnes

China

DMC (1970- 2008) DMC (2009- 2050) 25.6 tonnes per-capita 28.7 tonnes per-capita 40 billion tonnes 18.2 tonnes per-capita

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  • 10,000

20,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Million per-capita 19.5 billion tonnes Assuming decadal GDP growth to decline to 3% per annum by 2050 5% per annum improvement in material intensity Medium population projection of 1.4 billion by 2050

Source: Schandl and West (2010), UNEP (2011), West and Schandl (2012)

Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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SLIDE 17

Incremental and transformative policies

Production Green investment Cleaner production Eco-efficiency Extended producer Activity domains Construction/Housing Transport/Mobility Agriculture/Eating Manufacturing/Consumer Private Consumption Eco-labelling Service instead of purchasing Buy responsibly Policies aimed at transforming current systems

17 |

Extended producer responsibility Manufacturing/Consumer goods Utilities/Water and electricity Green infrastructure and design Buy responsibly Government Consumption Green procurement Policies aimed at improving current behaviours within existing systems

Opportunities through 3R’s and Resource Efficiency Measures | Heinz Schandl

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SLIDE 18

Transformative policies

  • Green budget and tax reform – revenue neutrality
  • Pricing and capping the use of natural resources at source
  • Paying productivity gains in increased recreation time and not just

by rising incomes – helps avoid rebound effect

  • Replacing subsides on resources
  • Investing in product service systems, eco industrial parks and eco-
  • Investing in product service systems, eco industrial parks and eco-

cities, resource recycling and cascading

18 |

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SLIDE 19

Study Tour Objectives

  • Taking a 'learning by doing' approach, the objective of this study

tour is to build technical skills for formulating national level policies that support a shift toward green economy in the context

  • f sustainable development and poverty eradication.
  • support the process of policy framing to arrive at sound principles for policy

initiatives that integrate economic, environment and social objectives

  • select policy instruments that may steer a transition to a green economy in
  • select policy instruments that may steer a transition to a green economy in

the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication and a better quality of growth

  • assess progress toward a green economy in the context of sustainable

development and poverty eradication and ensure accountability of policy making

  • identify next steps for expanding economic modelling approaches used at the

national level.

Presentation title | Presenter name 19 |

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SLIDE 20

Wednesday 11 September

09.00 – 10.30 Heinz Schandl Introduction to the study tour 11.00 – 12.30 Steve Hatfield-Dodds Steve Hatfield-Dodds Economic Modelling and Policy making 14.00 – 17.00 Developing policy and research questions

Presentation title | Presenter name 20 |

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SLIDE 21

Thursday 12 September

09.00 – 10.30 David Newth Integrated Climate and Economic Modelling 11.00 – 12.30 Tira Foran Tira Foran Participatory Scenarios Methods 14.00 – 17.00 Technical proposal writing

Presentation title | Presenter name 21 |

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SLIDE 22

Friday 13 September

09.00 – 10.30 Tim Baynes Physical Stocks and Flows Modelling 11.00 – 12.30 Jim West and Tim Baynes Jim West and Tim Baynes Environmental satellite accounts 13.30 – 14.30 Rae Kwon Chung Green Growth for Asia and the Pacific

Presentation title | Presenter name 22 |

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SLIDE 23

Monday 16 September

09.00 – 10.30 Manfred Lenzen Global Multi-Regional I-O 11.00 – 12.30 Manfred Lenzen Manfred Lenzen Footprint Accounting 14.00 – 17.00 Technical proposal writing

Presentation title | Presenter name 23 |

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SLIDE 24

Tuesday 17 September

09.00 – 10.30 Mark Stafford-Smith Modelling of Climate Adaptation 11.00 – 12.30 Discussion Model Integration and Application Discussion Model Integration and Application 14.00 – 15.30 Heinz Schandl and Hitomi Rankine Study Tour Evaluation

Presentation title | Presenter name 24 |

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SLIDE 25

Thank you

ADD BUSINESS UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAME

Thank you

Ecosystem Sciences Division Social and Economic Sciences Program Heinz Schandl Senior Principal Scientist t +61 2 6246 4345 e heinz.schandl@csiro.au w http://www.csiro.au