Whats Up with the Washington County Economy? Lecia Parks Langston, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Whats Up with the Washington County Economy? Lecia Parks Langston, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 25, 2024 289 likes •902 views

Whats Up with the Washington County Economy? Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist Utah Department of Workforce Services How boring is it? Alternative indicators? Job growth hovering around the 5-percent mark Job growth hovering

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What’s Up with the Washington County Economy?

Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist Utah Department of Workforce Services

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How boring is it?

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Alternative indicators?

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Job growth hovering around the 5-percent mark

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Job growth hovering around the 5-percent mark

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  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15%

Washington County

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Three and

  • ne-half

years!

Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs

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  • 6%
  • 5%
  • 4%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3%

United States

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Peaked in early 2015, but remains relatively stable.

Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs

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  • 8%
  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Utah’s job growth second

  • nly to our

neighbor Idaho in November 2015.

Utah

Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs

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  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% Washington Utah United States

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Hanging out in the “zone.”

Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs

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  • 10%
  • 4%
  • 3%

0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8%

Duchesne Uintah Piute Emery Carbon Millard Tooele Juab Morgan United States Sevier San Juan Kane Garfield Grand Cache Davis Salt Lake Iron State of Utah Weber Sanpete Washington Summit Wayne Box Elder Utah Beaver Rich Wasatch Daggett

Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry September 2014 to September 2015

Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.

Moderate is better.

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Most industries showing strong to moderate growth.

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Most industries showing strong to moderate growth.

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6 324 283 52 180 159

  • 2

54 172 351 858 159 123 93 Mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation/Warehousing Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional/Business Services Education/Health/Social Services (Private) Leisure/Hospitality Other Services Government

*Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

Total jobs up 2,800 Slower in retail trade and leisure/hospitality while healthcare speeds up

Washington County Change in Nonfarm Jobs; September 2014 to September 2015*

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5% 4% 7% 10% 3% 8% 8% 8% 9% 2% 8% 1% 4%

  • 19%

7% 2% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 5% 2% 2%

Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade/Transportation/Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional/Business Services Education/Health/Social Services (Private) Leisure/Hospitality Other Services Government Washington County Utah

*Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

Still seeing broad-based expansion

Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs September 2014 to September 2015*

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5% 4% 7% 10% 3% 8% 8% 8% 9% 2% 8% 1%

2%

  • 12%

3% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 0%

Total Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade/Transportation/Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional/Business Services Education/Health/Social Services (Private) Leisure/Hospitality Other Services Government Washington County United States

*Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs September 2014 to September 2015*

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Average wage increased 3 percent in 2014.

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Third Quarter 2015 up 3.3 percent.

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Washington County Annual Change in Average Monthly Wage

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. Full- employment before wages increase

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Washington County Year-Over Change in Average Monthly Wage

  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Raw Smoothed Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. Quarterly data show gains.

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Unemployment about 4 percent.

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Jobless rate expected to measure about 4 percent.

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Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% State of Utah United States Washington County Too low. Rates bottomed

  • ut in 2015

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Four-Week Moving Average

20 40 60 80 100 120 Week 5 Week 10 Week 15 Week 20 Week 25 Week 30 Week 35 Week 40 Week 45 Week 50 2013 2014 2015 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. No sign of major layoffs

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U.S. Gross Domestic Product growing under 2 percent.

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U.S. Gross Domestic Product growing just over 2 percent.

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U.S Quarterly Change in Real GDP

  • 10%
  • 8%
  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Quarter-to-Quarter Change Year-Over Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Same old, same old

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Change in Real Gross Domestic Product

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 United States (Metropolitan Portion)

  • St. George, UT

Better than average

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Change in Real GDP 2013-2014

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2.3% 3.0% 3.9% 2.2% 3.6% 4.0% United States (Metropolitan Portion) Logan, UT-ID Ogden-Clearfield, UT Salt Lake City, UT Provo-Orem, UT

  • St. George, UT

Best of the Utah MSAs

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In 2014, population growth measured 2.9 percent.

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In 2015, population growth measured ?

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10% 7% 8% 10% 8% 7% 5% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 8% 7% 4% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Washington County Utah

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Is 3 percent the new normal?

Population Growth Estimates

152,000 in 2014

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Permits issued for 1,400-plus homes.

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Permits for roughly 1,500 homes.

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Washington County Dwelling Unit Permits

980 1,266 2,114 2,697 2,0191,929 1,514 1,687 1,519 1,267 1,740 1,995 2,678 3,794 3,860 2,256 1,888 682 605 870 846 1,257 1,667 1,440 1,500 Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

No sign of the excesses of the bubble.

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$16.1 $44.3 $32.0 $75.2 $51.7 $84.8 $30.7 $37.4 $68.9 $39.6 $109.6 $43.6 $107.5 $118.2 $176.9 $143.4 $119.2 $46.8 $35.7 $69.4 $113.2 $42.4 $44.1 $66.5

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Washington County

New Nonresidential Building Permit Valuation

Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.

Millions of $

Improvement in nonresidential following residential’s lead.

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1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

*Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

Employment rising but not

  • ver-heated

Washington County Construction Employment

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50 100 150 200 250 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Unhurried appreciation in home prices

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.

Washington County Housing Price Index

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  • 40%
  • 30%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Washington County Salt Lake City MSA Las Vegas MSA

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx. Rates of appreciation plateauing?

Year-over Change in Housing Price Index (HPI)

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. Washington County

Percent of homes which are affordable to families with the median income. Affordability holding steady.

Source: National Association of Homebuilders; Wells Fargo Bank.

Housing Opportunity Index

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Washington County Homes Sold

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Source: Utah Association of Realtors.

Home sales trending upward.

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Sales growing between 5-10 percent.

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Sales growing between 5-10 percent.

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  • 14%
  • 13%
  • 11%

0% 4%

  • 1%

8% 4% 1% 8% 7% 6% 9% 11% 8% 16% 9% 9% 10% 4% 9% 7% 7% 6% 9% 10%

  • 14%
  • 12%
  • 9%
  • 2%

4% 2% 4% 6% 4% 7% 9%8% 9% 8% 6% 5% 3% 4% 4% 2% 4% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5%

1st Qtr 2009 1st Qtr 2010 1st Qtr 2011 1st Qtr 2012 1st Qtr 2013 1st Qtr 2014 1st Qtr 2015 Washington County Utah

Source: Utah State Tax Commission.

Five years of expansion.

Year-to-Year Change in Gross Taxable Sales

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New Car and Light Truck Sales

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Washington County

Source: Utah State Tax Commission.

Best quarter ever.

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Year-Over Change in New Car/Truck Sales

  • 60%
  • 40%
  • 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Washington County

12 percent gain in third quarter

Source: Utah State Tax Commission.

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Projected same level economic expansion with stronger wage growth.

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No significant sign of a slowdown

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39 24 106 36 58 12 92 120 79 May 1954 - Aug 1957 Apr 1958 - Apr 1960 Feb 1961 - Dec 1969 Nov 1970 - Nov 1973 Mar 1975 - Jan 1980 Jul 1980 - Jul 1981 Nov 1982 - Jul 1990 Mar 1991 - Mar 2001 Jun 2009 to Current

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.

U.S. Expansionary Periods in Months

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Cumulative recession probability based on historical data*

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Risks?

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Spread of China’s economic slowdown

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Stock Market Bubble

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Last two recessions the result of asset bubbles

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Long-Term Interest Rates Price-Earnings Ratio (CAPE, P/E10) Price-Earnings Ratio Long-Term Interest Rates 2000 1981 1929 1901 1921 25.93 1966 Suggests market is

  • ver-

valued.

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Stimulus Went on Too Long

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In 2016, keep and eye on the indicators

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Year-to-year nonfarm job growth rate.

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  • 6%
  • 5%
  • 4%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs

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Don’t sweat the monthly data. Watch the trends.

jobs.utah.gov/wi

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Economic Snapshot

(Monthly)

Labor Market & Economy Blog

Current

jobs.utah.gov/wi (click on “County Snapshots”)

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  • Lecia Parks Langston
  • Senior Economist, Utah Department of

Workforce Services

  • 435-688-3115
  • lecialangston@utah.gov