Modeling for Emission of Domestic Waste in China Takeshi Fujiwara - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modeling for Emission of Domestic Waste in China

Takeshi Fujiwara February 20, 2006 Matsuoka Laboratory Kyoto University

Background (1)

Waste emission increases in Asian countries, especially in

urban area, according to economic development.

Generally, increase in income promotes consumption of

goods and makes the amount of domestic waste large.

On the other hand, building waste disposal sites near the

town becomes difficult because of opposition by the residents (NIMBY), therefore, new disposal sites tend to be built at farther place.

As people desire sanitary life and clean city, waste collection

becomes frequent and waste transportation becomes longer, therefore, the larger number of waste collection cars and more fuel are necessary.

Since such the waste problem in the developing city is

imperative, it is important to estimate waste emission in future and to design an appropriate waste management plan.

Background (2)

Not only goods and but also waste goods (including

secondhand goods) are traded between Asian countries.

The developing country which has labor power by low

wage imports the waste goods to reuse or extract valuable things. It is pointed as a serious problem that the residual of the waste, possibly including hazardous materials, is not adequately treated.

This means developing sound material cycle is not a

subject of one country but a subject of the world.

Country Country Trade of valuable wastes Trade of goods recycling recycling disposal disposal Production incineration

Background (3)

From the viewpoint of climate change problem, emission of CO2

from waste collection cars and CH4 from landfill sites should be focused on.

• Recently, CH4 gas is recovered in some landfill sites through

equipped gas collection pipes, and such activity is often conducted as a CDM project.

Adoption of waste recycling facility, such as composting and

biogas generator, should be considered in the waste management plan.

(To develop sound material society, actions of Reduce, Reuse,

and Recycle [3R] are essential.)

We are tackling not only waste estimation but also material flow

analysis.

Objectives

Comprehension of material flow in the country and material

transportation between countries by using statistics of monetary and material flow and stock is the first step.

Consumer’s purchasing power and preference drives production

activity of industry, and the household generates domestic waste and the industry generates industrial waste. We develop such driving mechanism by using economic model.

• Using social and economic scenarios, future material flow in the

world (specially Asian countries) is figured out and waste emission is also projected.

Appropriate waste management system including waste

collection, treatment and disposal, corresponding to the country is considered.

International macro economy model Econometric model for China input and output model Industrial technology model Non-hazardous waste Hazardous Waste Service of detoxification Treatment & Disposal Scenario of urbanization Scenario of population growth Econometric model for city Expenditure estimation model Domestic waste Emission model

Modeling of waste estimation

Industrial waste models Domestic waste model Future projection of Chinese economy Urban and rural model Scenario of Lifestyle Waste recycling model Imported waste Domestic waste Treatment & Disposal

Domestic Waste Model

Foods Tuna Housing Utilities Eat Out Others Grain Meat Fish Rice Bread Fresh Fish Fresh Meat Ordinary Rice Sticky Rice Loaf Bread Beef Pork Others Saury Major Category Middle Category Fine Category ･･･ ･･･ ･･･ ･･･ ･･･

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

Classification of consumer expenditure

Econometric Model Consumer Preference Model Statistical Expenditure Model Waste Conversion Matrix

Governmental Final Consumption Private Final Consumption Expenditure Total fixed Capital Import of Goods and Service Export of Goods and Service GDP Stock of Capital Labors Population age 15-64 Time trend Currency Exchange Rate against Dollar Price Index of World Exported Industrial Products World Trade Merchandise Population Population age greater equal to 65 endogenous exogenous GDP ratio by each industry GDP of primary industry GDP of second industry GDP of third industry

Macro Econometric Model

CO2 emission Recycling Disposal Macro Econo- metric Model GDP Expenditure Population Income Consumer Expenditure Model Indices for consumption Food Cloth Education Culture, Leisure Others Nondurable consumer goods Waste Emission Model Electric appliance Furniture Others Durable goods Garbage Paper Wood, Bamboo Plastics Metals Glasses Others Treatment Evaluation Model Waste amount of each category Cost Hazardous material

Macro Econometric Model Consumer Expenditure Model (2 stage model)

Household

Waste Emission Model (Conversion matrix) Treatment Evaluation Model (LCA, Optimization)

Estimation of Waste Emission, Evaluation of Waste Treatment, for Domestic Waste

Consumer Preference Model

Consumer Preference Model

Consumer Expenditure

Foods Cloths Housing Utilities Others ….. ….. GDP Household Population Household aged persons Household labors ….. ….. …..

Change in economic condition and lifestyle

( )

k

k k k k k k

u M E P M

α

δ = − =

∏ ∑

Grains Vegetables Meats Daily products ….. ….. ….. …..

Statistical Expenditure Model

Middle categories

• f consumer expenditure

Foods

Major category of consumer expenditure

Cloth Housing Utility Others Social and economic indices Kimono European cloth Shirts Inner cloth ….. ….. ….. ….. Housing expense Maintenance Electricity Gas Water Others Logit model Logit model Logit model Logit model Logit model GDP Household Population Household aged persons Household labors ….. ….. …..

' '

exp( ) exp( ) ( ( , , ))

j j j q q q j j

x x x x l m n β α β = =

∑

Example of Model Output

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202 5 2030 100 200 300 400 500 X G R A N X FISH X M E A T X M IL K X V E G E X FR U T X O IL S X SW E T X C O O K X D R N K X L IQ R X E O U T Y G R A N Y FISH Y M E A T Y M IL K Y V E G E Y FR U T Y O IL S Y SW E T Y C O O K Y D R N K Y L IQ R Y E O U T 1990 19 95 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 H FO O D S H FO O D

Consumer preference model Statistical expenditure model

Output of expenditure estimation (“O city” in Japan)

Current Status of Modeling Work

The estimation model of domestic waste will

be validated by applying it to Japan case and Siga prefecture case.

We collaborate with a Chinese scholar to

collect waste statistics data and to apply the model to Chinese major cities.

Impact of 3R activity in waste management

• n reduction of GHG emission will be

assessed.

Future Research

Industrial waste emission model will be

• developed. This model uses IO table and

special knowledge of industrial process.

The model of domestic waste estimation will

be applied to Asian countries.

Utilization of bio waste, such as agricultural

waste, food industry waste, kitchen waste and so on for energy production and also reduction of GHG emission will be evaluated.

Thank you for kindly attention